Maryland Terrapins vs Georgetown Hoyas prediction: Maryland's relentless offensive glass tests Georgetown's rebuilt frontline
Buzz Williams' remade Terps grabbed nearly two-thirds of their misses in the opener, and a Georgetown team missing Vyctorius Miller has to finish possessions to keep pace.
| Spread | Maryland -3.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 146.25 |
- Expect Maryland to push tempo and pound the glass while Georgetown slows things down and leans on Jaland Lowe and Vince Iwuchukwu.
- Maryland's offensive rebounders, Pharrel Payne and Tomislav Buljan, against a Georgetown defensive glass that ranked 196th in its opener.
- Maryland is a 2.5-point favorite after the line moved toward the Terps from Georgetown -0.75; the total has held at 146.5.
Second chances decide it
Two DMV programs that finished below .500 last season have rebuilt almost from scratch, and the first real test for both arrives tonight at Capital One Arena. The clearest early fingerprint on Maryland is effort on the offensive glass. Against Bucknell, the Terps rebounded 63.6% of their own misses, the top offensive rebound rate (the share of missed shots a team recovers) in Division I after week one.
That runs straight at a Georgetown weakness. The Hoyas pulled in 70.0% of opponents' misses against Loyola Maryland, 196th nationally. Buljan, a New Mexico transfer, averaged 10.3 rebounds there last season, and Payne went 5 of 6 from the floor in his return. If Maryland turns its misses into putbacks, Georgetown's halfcourt defense gets no chance to matter.
The Terps also protect the rim. They blocked 27.3% of Bucknell's two-point tries, sixth in the country. Iwuchukwu, ruled eligible on Oct. 30, went 6 of 8 for 21 points in the opener and will have to score through that length.
Lowe carries a thinner backcourt
Lowe settled the questions about his shoulder by scoring 23 points on 5-of-8 shooting from three in the opener. Elmarko Jackson added 14 in his Georgetown debut. That pair has to handle a Maryland defense that forced turnovers on 25.0% of Bucknell's possessions, 63rd nationally.
Georgetown's best counter is care with the ball. The Hoyas turned it over on just 11.9% of their possessions, 39th in the country. Depth is the worry. Miller, an Oklahoma State transfer who made 37.5% of his threes last season, missed the opener with a hand injury and isn't expected to be an option this weekend. NJ Benson didn't dress for the opener for a non-injury reason, and his eligibility remains unsettled.
If this one tightens late, Georgetown has the steadier hands at the line. The Hoyas made 88.2% of their free throws in the opener, ninth nationally, while Maryland shot 67.7%.
New rosters, old ledger
Little of last season carries over. Maryland returns just 24.5% of last season's minutes and lists 11 new faces; Georgetown returns 31.0%. That makes last season's numbers a weak guide. For what it's worth, Georgetown finished last season 87th in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), while Maryland finished 131st.
The returners who matter most are on the floor. Andre Mills posted 22 points and 11 rebounds against Bucknell. Mike McNair Jr. made 44.4% of his threes at Boston University last season. Williams said after the opener that he still isn't sure which combinations work best, so the rotation may shift again tonight.
Georgetown won last season's meeting 70-60 at Maryland, but both rosters have turned over heavily since.
Pace and the market
The styles pull in opposite directions. Maryland played at 72.5 possessions per 40 minutes in its opener, while Georgetown played at 66.5, 313th nationally. Whoever controls tempo shapes the total.
The market has moved toward Maryland. Our feed first saw Georgetown as a 0.75-point favorite; the Terps now lay 2.5 points despite playing a road game. The total has held at 146.5 since our feed first saw it. Neither team covered as a heavy favorite on Nov. 2, against opponents ranked 334th and 325th in adjusted net efficiency, so the opening results say little about this matchup.
- Maryland's second-chance points against Georgetown's bigs
- Whether Lowe's shooting holds up against a more athletic defense
- Georgetown's bench minutes with Miller unavailable
Maryland Terrapins vs Georgetown Hoyas line movement and odds
| Book | Terrapins ML | Hoyas ML | Terrapins spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -160 | +135 | -3.5 (-105) | o146.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | -167 | +133 | -2.5 (-120) | o145.5 (-114) |
| DraftKings | -162 | +136 | -3.5 (-108) | o146.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | -165 | +140 | -3.5 (-110) | o146.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | -165 | +135 | -3.5 (-107) | o146.5 (-107) |
| FanDuel | -160 | +132 | -3.5 (-106) | o145.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -165 | +135 | -2.5 (-120) | o145.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | -165 | +140 | -3 (-110) | o146.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Maryland Terrapins vs Georgetown Hoyas
On the Kalshi moneyline: Maryland Terrapins: 54% of bets, 49% of the money; Georgetown Hoyas: 46% of bets, 51% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Maryland Terrapins -2.5: 81% of bets, 92% of the money; Georgetown Hoyas +2.5: 20% of bets, 8% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 146.5: 50% of bets, 87% of the money; Under 146.5: 50% of bets, 13% of the money.
Maryland Terrapins vs Georgetown Hoyas stats (this season)
| Stat | Maryland Terrapins | Georgetown Hoyas |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 110.8 (139th of 365) | 114.5 (88th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 107.6 (140th of 365) | 104.8 (93rd of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | 3.2 (131st of 365) | 9.7 (87th of 365) |
| Pace | 72.5 (138th of 364) | 66.5 (313th of 364) |
| Effective FG% | 52.1% (193rd of 363) | 51.6% (201st of 363) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 54.7% (285th of 363) | 46.0% (152nd of 363) |
| Turnover rate | 17.8% (190th of 363) | 11.9% (40th of 363) |
| Offensive rebound % | 63.6% (1st of 363) | 30.3% (225th of 363) |
| 3-point % | 25.0% (306th of 363) | 26.9% (283rd of 363) |
| Free throw rate | 43.1% (106th of 363) | 27.0% (288th of 363) |
Key players
- Andre Mills (Maryland): He carried a 29.5% usage rate in the opener and turned it into 22 points and 11 rebounds.
- Pharrel Payne (Maryland): Back from a mostly lost season, he averaged 17.5 points in 10 games last season and went 5 of 6 against Bucknell.
- Tomislav Buljan (Maryland): He averaged 10.3 rebounds at New Mexico last season and grabbed seven in 20 minutes in his Maryland debut.
- Mike McNair Jr. (Maryland): He made 44.4% of his threes at Boston University last season, giving Maryland spacing it lacked.
- Jaland Lowe (Georgetown): He scored 23 points in 34 minutes in the opener and hit 5 of 8 threes.
- Vince Iwuchukwu (Georgetown): Cleared on Oct. 30, he scored 21 points with nine rebounds on a team-high 32.9% usage rate.
- Elmarko Jackson (Georgetown): He scored 14 points in his Georgetown debut alongside Lowe in the backcourt.
Numbers that matter
| Maryland offensive rebound rate | 63.6% | First in Division I after the opener, pointed at a Georgetown defensive glass that ranked 196th. |
|---|---|---|
| Maryland block rate | 27.3% | Sixth nationally, a wall Iwuchukwu has to score through. |
| Georgetown turnover rate | 11.9% | 39th nationally, the Hoyas' best defense against Maryland's pressure. |
| Georgetown free throw % | 88.2% | Ninth nationally, an edge if the game is close late. |
| Current spread | -2.5 | Maryland is favored after the line moved from Georgetown -0.75. |
Maryland Terrapins vs Georgetown Hoyas: quick answers
Who is favored in Maryland Terrapins vs Georgetown Hoyas?
Maryland is favored by 3.5 points (Maryland -3.5).
What is the over/under for Maryland Terrapins vs Georgetown Hoyas?
The total is 146.25 points.
When is Maryland Terrapins vs Georgetown Hoyas?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.
Where is Maryland Terrapins vs Georgetown Hoyas played?
Capital One Arena, Washington, DC.
Has the line moved for Maryland Terrapins vs Georgetown Hoyas?
Yes: Maryland Terrapins opened +1.5 and is now -3.5, and the total moved from 147.5 to 146.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Maryland Terrapins vs Georgetown Hoyas?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Maryland Terrapins: 54% of bets, 49% of the money; Georgetown Hoyas: 46% of bets, 51% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Maryland Terrapins -2.5: 81% of bets, 92% of the money; Georgetown Hoyas +2.5: 20% of bets, 8% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 146.5: 50% of bets, 87% of the money; Under 146.5: 50% of bets, 13% of the money.