Marist vs Lehigh prediction: Hank Alvey's veteran Lehigh hosts a Marist team built almost from scratch

Continuity against a reset

Last November, Marist beat Lehigh 78-55 on its own floor. The rematch in Bethlehem pits two very different rosters. Lehigh returns 80.6% of last season's minutes from a team that won its fourth Patriot League championship. Marist returns just 26.9%.

Lehigh's anchor is Hank Alvey, the Patriot League Preseason Player of the Year. He scored 15.2 points a game last season on 62.4% shooting. Joshua Ingram and Edouard Benoit are also back. The hole is Nasir Whitlock, who averaged 20.5 points and left for Georgia Tech.

Marist's overhaul runs deeper. Justin Menard left for Colorado State, and Elijah Lewis and Jaden Daughtry, who combined for 52 starts, are gone too. Last season's Red Foxes ranked fourth nationally in defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions), but John Dunne, in his ninth season, is coaching mostly different players. Those defensive numbers are a weak guide now.

Marist's free throw lifeline

Marist's opener against Dartmouth showed what this team can and can't do. It made only 31.2% of its two-pointers, 340th of 348. It stayed close by getting to the line: a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 56.5%, 37th nationally.

Jadin Collins-Roberts embodied both sides. He went 1-of-9 from the field and still scored 13, making 91.7% of his free throws.

Lehigh fouled heavily at Saint Louis, allowing an opponent free throw rate that ranks 292nd. If the Mountain Hawks put Marist's guards on the line again, a poor-shooting offense gets easy points.

Turnovers and the three-point line

Ball security is Marist's other worry. The Red Foxes turned it over on 25.7% of possessions against Dartmouth, 315th in the country. Lehigh may not punish it: the Mountain Hawks forced turnovers on just 13.9% of Saint Louis possessions, 292nd.

Lehigh's own problem was the perimeter. It shot 18.5% from three while taking nearly half its shots from deep. Ingram, a 38.7% shooter last season, is the likeliest to fix that.

Marist's best shooting came off the bench. Myles Parker hit 3-of-5 threes for 13 points in 24 minutes.

What the openers revealed

Lehigh's 92-67 loss at Saint Louis was closer than it looks for most of the first half. The Mountain Hawks trailed by three with 4:10 left before the break, then fell apart. The Billikens made 78.1% of their two-pointers, 347th of 348 for Lehigh's defense, and Lehigh blocked no shots. Bench guard Caleb Thomas led the team with 12 points on 5-of-6 shooting.

Marist's collapse came late. It led Dartmouth 47-38 with 10:53 left, then lost after an 8-0 run. The Red Foxes did not cover as a 7.5-point home favorite, and the game stayed under a 137.5 total.