Long Island University vs Seton Hall prediction: Seton Hall's havoc defense tests LIU's loose handle in Walsh Gym

Where the possessions go

LIU arrives as a champion. The Sharks went 24-11, swept the NEC regular season and tournament titles under Rod Strickland, and reached the NCAA Tournament for the first time since the campus merger. Seton Hall, picked ninth in the Big East this preseason, gets them in its second game, on campus at Walsh Gym with a 6:30 p.m. tip.

The matchup that should shape the night is Seton Hall's defense against LIU's handle. Last season the Pirates finished 1st nationally in block rate (blocks per opponent two-point attempt) and 3rd in steal rate. They forced turnovers on 22.3% of opponent possessions, 8th in the country. LIU gave the ball away on 19.0% of its possessions, 315th of 365. Every giveaway is a possession the Sharks can't afford against a team that allowed just 65.3 points per game, 11th nationally.

One caveat runs through all of this. These are last season's numbers, and Seton Hall lost key pieces of that defense. Adam Clark, who averaged 2.0 steals, is now at Ole Miss. Na'jai Hines, a 2.2-blocks-per-game rim protector, left for UConn.

A game played inside the arc

Few teams in the country shot fewer threes than these two. Seton Hall's 3-point attempt rate ranked 362nd of 365 last season and LIU's ranked 356th. This one will be won around the rim and the foul line.

That favors the defense on both ends. Seton Hall's offense was a grind last season: its effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 47.6% ranked 340th, and it made just 30.5% of its threes. LIU brings rim protection of its own, with a block rate that ranked 16th. The Pirates' answer was the offensive glass. They rebounded 35.6% of their own misses, 41st nationally, against an LIU defense that ranked 310th in defensive rebound rate.

The foul line could swing it

Seton Hall's aggressive defense came with a cost. Opponents earned a free throw rate (free throws attempted per field goal attempt) of 42.1%, 334th in the country. That should hand LIU chances at the line, but the Sharks rarely cashed them. They made 66.7% of their free throws, 347th nationally.

If the game is tight late, that gap matters. AJ Staton-McCray, Seton Hall's top returning scorer, made 87.5% from the line last season.

A Seton Hall roster still settling

Shaheen Holloway's fifth Pirates team returns players who accounted for 63.7% of last season's minutes. The departures hit the backcourt hardest. Clark led the team at 12.7 points and 4.9 assists, and Tajuan Simpkins, a 37% three-point shooter, is now at Mississippi State. Stephon Payne also left after his eligibility ran out.

The additions are less settled. Illinois transfer Mihailo Petrovic's visa status was still unresolved as of early August. The Pirates also lost 6-foot-8 Rutgers transfer Chris Nwuli and 6-foot-9 G League forward Nathan Mariano before workouts began. Bowling Green transfer Mayar Wol is listed as immediately eligible and projects as a starter. No information was available on LIU's 2026-27 roster, so how much of the Sharks' title team returns is unknown.

The schedule adds one wrinkle. Seton Hall opens against Saint Peter's on Nov. 2, then plays LIU the following Thursday.

What to watch

• Turnovers in the first 10 minutes. If Seton Hall's pressure rattles LIU early, the gap between the teams grows fast.
• Second chances. The Pirates' offensive rebounding against LIU's soft defensive glass is Seton Hall's cleanest path to points.
• Free throws. LIU will likely get to the line; whether it makes them could decide the margin.
• Who plays. Watch whether Petrovic has been cleared and how Holloway splits the guard minutes Clark and Simpkins left behind.