LIU Sharks vs La Salle Explorers prediction: La Salle's three-point barrage runs into an LIU defense that shuts the arc
The Explorers launched threes at a historic clip in their opener, and LIU's rebuilt roster has spent two games keeping opponents off the line.
| Spread | La Salle -4.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 150.5 |
- Expect a grinding, foul-heavy game in which La Salle's volume shooting decides whether the home side pulls away or LIU hangs around.
- Kam Burton against LIU's perimeter defense: the 42.7% shooter at Stephen F. Austin last season faces opponents shooting 22.6% from three.
- La Salle is a 4.5-point favorite with a 146.5 total, unchanged since our feed first saw it; both LIU games went under.
The arc is the whole argument
La Salle's homecoming comes five days after a 94-55 beating at Houston, and the Explorers spent that night living behind the line. They took 65.0% of their shots from three, the second-highest rate in Division I, and made just 20.5% of them. One game into the year every number is a small sample, but the shape of that offense looks deliberate rather than desperate.
The reason is Kam Burton. The Stephen F. Austin transfer shot 42.7% from three on 178 attempts last season and went 4 of 12 for 15 points in his debut. Vice Zanki, a Niagara transfer, made 38.5% of his threes last season, giving Darris Nichols a second shooter to build around.
LIU's defense pushes the other way. Opponents have taken only 27.9% of their shots from three against the Sharks, 347th nationally, and made 22.6%, which ranks 50th. Funneling La Salle inside isn't much relief for the Explorers either: they made 33.3% of their twos at Houston, and LIU blocks 18.8% of opponents' two-point tries, 36th in the country.
Rebuilt Sharks, new engine
LIU won 24 games and two NEC titles last season before falling to Arizona in the NCAA Tournament. Almost none of that team is left. Players on this roster logged 1.2% of last season's minutes, so last season's numbers say very little about what Rod Strickland has now. Jamal Fuller, who scored 16.2 points per game, is among the departures.
The new group still drew the NEC preseason favorite tag, and it runs through Vasean Allette. He carries a 29.8% usage rate, the share of possessions he finishes, and scored 20 at Seton Hall. Daquan Davis, another preseason All-NEC pick, went 2 of 9 that night after scoring 16 against Florida Atlantic.
The defense has kept LIU competitive while the offense hasn't found its footing. The Sharks' effective field goal percentage, which counts threes as 1.5 field goals, sits at 42.3%, 317th nationally. Their 60-67 loss at Seton Hall, a team rated 50th, showed how they stay in games: they make them ugly.
Whistles and second chances
Both defenses have sent opponents to the line constantly. Free throw rate measures free throw attempts per field goal attempt, and LIU's opponents are at 53.2%, 332nd. La Salle's foes are at 64.9%, 351st, though most of that came against Houston. Both teams shoot around 73% at the stripe, so a whistle-heavy game doesn't obviously favor either.
Ball security is La Salle's other worry. The Explorers turned it over on 25.7% of their possessions at Houston, 344th nationally, and Allette averages 3.5 steals. The glass may give the Explorers some room. LIU has grabbed only 17.1% of its own misses, 356th, which blunts La Salle's weak defensive rebounding from the opener.
What the market sees
La Salle is a 4.5-point favorite at home, and the total is 146.5, with neither number moving since our feed first recorded the game Saturday morning. The Sharks are 1-1 against the spread after covering at Seton Hall, and both of their games stayed under, with LIU scoring 60 each time.
The situation tilts toward the home team. La Salle has had five days of rest, while LIU plays its third game of a five-game road trip on two days' rest. The Sharks won last season's meeting 70-60 on their own floor, but only a sliver of that roster remains.
One open question: Rob Dockery, a second-team preseason All-A-10 pick who averaged 12.5 points last season, isn't among the six Explorers who played the most minutes at Houston, and the school hasn't published an update on him. Bowyn Beatty is back from the injury that ended his 2025-26 season and grabbed a team-high 7 rebounds in the opener.
- Burton's three-point volume against LIU's arc defense
- La Salle's turnovers against Allette's hands
- Whether LIU's offense can get past 60
LIU Sharks vs La Salle Explorers line movement and odds
| Book | Sharks ML | Explorers ML | Sharks spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +185 | -225 | +5.5 (-110) | o150.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | +180 | -235 | +4.5 (-103) | o150.5 (-104) |
| DraftKings | +180 | -218 | +5.5 (-112) | o150.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | +175 | -210 | +5.5 (-110) | o150.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +185 | -225 | +5.5 (-110) | o150 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +180 | -220 | +5.5 (-115) | o149.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +180 | -230 | +4.5 (+100) | o150.5 (+100) |
| Caesars | +185 | -225 | +5.5 (-110) | o150 (-110) |
Where the money is on LIU Sharks vs La Salle Explorers
On the Kalshi moneyline: LIU Sharks: 50% of bets, 2% of the money; La Salle Explorers: 50% of bets, 98% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: La Salle Explorers -4.5: 54% of bets, 89% of the money; LIU Sharks +4.5: 46% of bets, 11% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 149.5: 57% of bets, 30% of the money; Under 149.5: 43% of bets, 70% of the money.
Key players
- Kam Burton (La Salle): Made 42.7% of his threes at Stephen F. Austin last season and scored 15 at Houston.
- Devin Booker (La Salle): Scored 12 in the opener but went 1 of 7 from three with a 28.2% usage rate.
- Bowyn Beatty (La Salle): Back from last season's injury, he led La Salle with 7 rebounds at Houston.
- Vasean Allette (LIU): Averages 14.5 points and 3.5 steals, with a team-high 29.8% usage rate.
- Daquan Davis (LIU): Averages 11.5 points but shot 2 of 9 at Seton Hall.
- Ryan Bewley (LIU): Blocks 3.0 shots per game in 15 minutes, anchoring a defense that ranks 36th in block rate.
Numbers that matter
| La Salle 3-point attempt rate | 65.0% | Second-highest in Division I after the opener at Houston. |
|---|---|---|
| LIU opponent 3-point attempt rate | 27.9% | Ranks 347th, meaning LIU opponents have rarely gotten threes up. |
| LIU returning minutes | 1.2% | Last season's NEC champion roster is almost entirely gone. |
| La Salle turnover rate | 25.7% | Ranks 344th, a problem against Allette's 3.5 steals per game. |
| Spread | -4.5 | La Salle favored at home, unchanged since our feed first saw the game. |
LIU Sharks vs La Salle Explorers: quick answers
Who is favored in LIU Sharks vs La Salle Explorers?
La Salle is favored by 4.5 points (La Salle -4.5).
What is the over/under for LIU Sharks vs La Salle Explorers?
The total is 150.5 points.
When is LIU Sharks vs La Salle Explorers?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET.
Has the line moved for LIU Sharks vs La Salle Explorers?
Yes: LIU Sharks opened +4.5 and is now +5.5, and the total moved from 144.5 to 150.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on LIU Sharks vs La Salle Explorers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: LIU Sharks: 50% of bets, 2% of the money; La Salle Explorers: 50% of bets, 98% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: La Salle Explorers -4.5: 54% of bets, 89% of the money; LIU Sharks +4.5: 46% of bets, 11% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 149.5: 57% of bets, 30% of the money; Under 149.5: 43% of bets, 70% of the money.