Lindenwood vs Omaha prediction: Cahmai Crosby's breakout tests a Lindenwood roster rebuilt from scratch

A program with no holdovers

Last season Lindenwood went 18-15 behind one of the country's better defenses, which ranked 20th nationally in points allowed per 100 possessions. None of that team is left. The Lions return 0.0% of last season's minutes, so that defense belongs to players now elsewhere: Jadis Jones is at USC, Dontrez Williams at UNLV, and leading scorer Anias Futrell is gone too. Last season's numbers tell you almost nothing about this group.

The rebuild's first look was rough. TCU, a team ranked 49th in adjusted net efficiency, won 98-59 on Nov. 2. Malek Archie was the bright spot, scoring 18 points off the bench.

Omaha is barely more familiar with itself. The Mavericks bring back 19.8% of last season's minutes after losing Paul Djobet to Texas State and Lance Waddles to Campbell. The last meeting between these programs went to Lindenwood 72-70 on a neutral floor in November 2023, and a return game is set for Dec. 5 in Lindenwood's building.

Crosby and the arc

Crosby played a bench role at North Texas last season, averaging 9.4 minutes. In his Omaha debut he scored 21 points and hit 4-of-7 from three in a 73-65 win over Mid-America Christian. That opponent is not a Division I program, so treat the Mavericks' early profile as a sketch rather than a portrait.

The sketch still points one way. Omaha took half its shots from deep, a 50.0% 3-point attempt rate. Lindenwood allowed TCU to make 52.6% of its threes, 344th of 348. If the Lions' new perimeter defenders don't close out better than they did in Fort Worth, Crosby and Jonny Jordan Jr. will get clean looks.

Lindenwood's possession problem

Lindenwood's opener was mostly a story of empty trips. The Lions turned it over on 26.7% of possessions, 322nd nationally. Guard Dom Clay made 9.1% of his shots while carrying a big share of the offense.

Omaha's defense isn't built to punish that. The Mavericks forced turnovers on just 10.3% of possessions in their opener, near the bottom of Division I. Where Omaha did shine was the defensive glass, grabbing 86.5% of available rebounds, 15th nationally. That matters because offensive rebounding was one of the few things Lindenwood did reasonably well against TCU.

Then there is the line. Lindenwood made 28.6% of its free throws, 346th of 348. Omaha lived there in its opener, with a free throw rate of 62.0 attempts per 100 shots (25th), though it converted only 58.1%.

Tempo and a crowded week

Lindenwood pushed the ball at TCU, playing at 75.5 possessions per 40 minutes. Omaha played at a more deliberate 68 possessions, 265th nationally. Whoever sets the pace decides whether this is a track meet or a half-court game.

Both teams have more basketball before Friday. Omaha visits BYU on Nov. 6 and hosts York on Nov. 10. Lindenwood plays at Nebraska on Nov. 11 before turning around for Baxter Arena. The Lions were picked sixth in the Ohio Valley Conference, and 2026-27 is the first season they are eligible for the NCAA postseason after their move up from Division II.