Lamar Cardinals vs Abilene Christian Wildcats prediction: Jordan Fee's all-new, full-speed Lamar tests a shorthanded Abilene Christian
Lamar brings back none of last season's minutes and wants to play faster than anyone, while ACU waits on an eligibility ruling and its 7-footer.
| Spread | Lamar -1.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 166 |
- Lamar tries to turn this into a track meet; ACU, without key bodies, has to slow it down and avoid another second-half collapse.
- Quante Berry and Lamar's guard rotation against an ACU backcourt led by Timeo Pons, who shot 5-of-14 at Colorado.
- Lamar is now a 1.5-point favorite with a 166.0 total; the line has moved from ACU -2.5 to Lamar -1.5 and the total from 163.5 to 166.0. Lamar played at 86.5 possessions per 40 minutes in its opener.
Lamar starts from zero
Nobody in Division I is a blanker slate than Lamar. The Cardinals return 0.0% of last season's minutes. Jordan Fee, hired in March after serving as associate head coach at Florida Atlantic, rebuilt the roster almost entirely through transfers. Whether anyone stayed is murky: Fee has said the Cardinals did not return any players, while Houston native Quinton Sanders was said to be staying. Either way, last season's 12-19 team tells you almost nothing.
The new group looked loose in its debut, a 124-62 rout of Schreiner on Nov. 2. Six players reached double figures, and Filip Radakovic and M.J. Wardlow each posted a double-double. Quante Berry, a Memphis transfer who averaged 6.1 points there last season, led with 22. That opponent offered little resistance, so treat the box score as a sketch.
History sits on ACU's side. Lamar has lost 12 straight in the series and has won only five times in 18 trips to Abilene.
ACU's missing pieces
Abilene Christian opened with a 94-59 loss at Colorado, and it did so short-handed. The Wildcats played without 7-footer Cade Hornecker and transfers Noah Bolanga and Gus Salem. Bolanga, a preseason All-UAC pick who averaged 11.9 points at Utah Tech last season, was ruled ineligible by the NCAA as of Nov. 2. Brette Tanner said he is "very confident" the ruling will be overturned. ACU hasn't said whether any of the three will play Saturday, so their status is unsettled.
The loss itself split into two games. On a roster with 11 newcomers, the Wildcats shot 20.0% from three, 346th nationally, and allowed a 69.0% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes 1.5 times), dead last in Division I.
Fee's tempo against the total
Fee has said he wants to push the pace and play faster than any team in the country. Against Schreiner, Lamar averaged 86.5 possessions per 40 minutes, fifth nationally. ACU played at 69 possessions at Colorado, 248th. Whoever controls the number of trips decides the shape of this game.
The market expects plenty of scoring. The total sits at 166.0, well above the 154.25 that closed for ACU's opener, which stayed under. The line has moved from ACU -2.5 to Lamar -1.5 since our feed first saw it, and the total has moved from 163.5 to 166.0. Lamar has no closing lines yet, and ACU is 0-1 against the spread after failing to cover as an 18.5-point underdog at Colorado.
Last season's adjusted ratings, which measure points per 100 possessions against an average schedule, had the two teams close: Lamar at -5.7 (231st) and ACU at -8 (253rd). With both rosters rebuilt, that is a weak guide, and the tight 1.5-point spread reflects the uncertainty.
Possessions on the glass
If Lamar runs, extra possessions will come from the boards. The Cardinals grabbed 56.8% of their own misses against Schreiner, fifth nationally. ACU rebounded only 61.5% of opponents' misses at Colorado, 319th, and that was without Hornecker's size. Wardlow pulled down 11 boards and Radakovic 13 in the opener, and both guards crash.
ACU's counter is its bench. Willan Marie-Anais scored 11 on efficient shooting with eight rebounds and three steals against Colorado, and Evan Boisdur added 11. Their minutes likely grow if the absences continue.
What to watch
- Bolanga and Hornecker: any change in the ineligibility ruling or Hornecker's availability reshapes ACU's rotation.
- The first 10 minutes: a fast start lets Lamar dictate tempo; a half-court game favors the home team.
- Berry's volume: his 33.9% usage in the opener shows how much Fee leans on him.
- ACU's second half: the Wildcats were within two at the break in Boulder before the bottom fell out.
Lamar Cardinals vs Abilene Christian Wildcats line movement and odds
| Book | Cardinals ML | Wildcats ML | Cardinals spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -150 | +118 | -2.5 (-118) | o169.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | -162 | +112 | -1.5 (-139) | o170.5 (-115) |
| DraftKings | -125 | +105 | -1.5 (-112) | o167.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | -155 | +120 | -2.5 (-115) | o169.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | -130 | +110 | -2 (-110) | o168.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -158 | +124 | -2.5 (-120) | o169.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -150 | +115 | -1.5 (-130) | o170.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | -125 | -105 | -2.5 (-115) | o170.5 (-115) |
Where the money is on Lamar Cardinals vs Abilene Christian Wildcats
On the Kalshi moneyline: Lamar Cardinals: 66% of bets, 96% of the money; Abilene Christian Wildcats: 34% of bets, 4% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Lamar Cardinals -1.5: 67% of bets, 49% of the money; Abilene Christian Wildcats +1.5: 33% of bets, 51% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 165.5: 38% of bets, 67% of the money; Under 165.5: 62% of bets, 33% of the money.
Key players
- Quante Berry (Lamar): Scored 22 in the opener with a 33.9% usage rate, the heaviest load on the roster.
- Filip Radakovic (Lamar): Posted 18 points and 13 rebounds against Schreiner after averaging 9.4 points at UT Martin last season.
- M.J. Wardlow (Lamar): Came off the bench for 16 points and 11 rebounds, hitting 3 of 6 threes.
- Niccolo Moretti (Lamar): Followed Fee from FAU and handed out 6 assists in 25 minutes in the opener.
- Timeo Pons (Abilene Christian): Led ACU with 13 points at Colorado but needed 14 shots on a 32.8% usage rate.
- Willan Marie-Anais (Abilene Christian): Scored 11 with 8 rebounds and 3 steals off the bench at Colorado.
- Yaniel Rivera (Abilene Christian): Shot 36.7% from three on 128 attempts last season but went 0-for-4 in the opener.
- Noah Bolanga (Abilene Christian): Averaged 11.9 points at Utah Tech last season and was ruled ineligible as of Nov. 2, with an appeal expected.
Numbers that matter
| Lamar returning minutes | 0.0% | No minutes return from last season, so last year's Lamar numbers say little about this team. |
|---|---|---|
| Lamar pace in opener | 86.5 | Fifth nationally in possessions per 40 minutes, in line with Fee's plan to play faster than anyone. |
| Spread | -2.5 | ACU is a small home favorite and the line hasn't moved since first posted. |
| Total | 163.5 | Priced well above the 154.25 that closed for ACU's opener, which went under. |
Lamar Cardinals vs Abilene Christian Wildcats: quick answers
Who is favored in Lamar Cardinals vs Abilene Christian Wildcats?
Lamar is favored by 1.5 points (Lamar -1.5).
What is the over/under for Lamar Cardinals vs Abilene Christian Wildcats?
The total is 166 points.
When is Lamar Cardinals vs Abilene Christian Wildcats?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Lamar Cardinals vs Abilene Christian Wildcats?
Yes: Lamar Cardinals opened +2.5 and is now -2.5, and the total moved from 142.5 to 169.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Lamar Cardinals vs Abilene Christian Wildcats?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Lamar Cardinals: 66% of bets, 96% of the money; Abilene Christian Wildcats: 34% of bets, 4% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Lamar Cardinals -1.5: 67% of bets, 49% of the money; Abilene Christian Wildcats +1.5: 33% of bets, 51% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 165.5: 38% of bets, 67% of the money; Under 165.5: 62% of bets, 33% of the money.