Jacksonville vs Florida prediction: Florida's returning frontcourt opens the O'Connell Center against a rebuilt Jacksonville

Second chances decide the shape

Florida's home opener comes with a target already drawn on it. The Gators are the media's preseason SEC favorite for the second straight season and are expected to open as the nation's No. 1 team. They return four starters, including the entire frontcourt. Jacksonville comes to Gainesville with a roster it rebuilt over the summer.

The clearest edge is on the offensive glass. Florida grabbed 43.2% of its own misses last season, 2nd in Division I. That offensive rebound rate is the share of missed shots a team recovers. Rueben Chinyelu, who withdrew from the NBA Draft to return for his senior season, averaged 11.2 rebounds last season. Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh are back beside him.

Jacksonville defended its own glass well last season, ranking 81st with a 72.0% defensive rebound rate. That number belongs to a different roster, though. The players who earned it are mostly gone.

Continuity against a clean slate

Florida returns 78.8% of last season's minutes. Golden called Boogie Fland the first point guard to play consecutive seasons in his system since he arrived in 2023. After a closed-door scrimmage, he also praised his reserves, singling out the Brown brothers, Urban Klavžar and Slovenian addition Domen Petrovic.

Jacksonville is close to the opposite. Of the 17 players on its roster at the start of last season, 14 left, 12 of them through the transfer portal. Hayden Wood, Evan Sterck and Roman Loux are the only returners. They are joined by a five-man freshman class and transfers including Williams, Phillips, Turner, Morrow, Stirling and Newell. With that much turnover, last season's 12-20 team says little about who takes the floor on Nov. 5. Jordan Mincy coached the Dolphins last season, and no change has been reported, though his status for this season hasn't been confirmed.

Take last season's adjusted ratings with that caution. Adjusted efficiency measures points per 100 possessions after accounting for opponents. Florida finished 5th in adjusted net efficiency and Jacksonville finished 298th.

The jump shot is Florida's question

Florida's weakness last season was shooting from outside. The Gators made 31.2% of their threes, which ranked 322nd. They won anyway by scoring inside, hitting 58.6% of their twos (20th).

The roster has changed some on the perimeter. Xaivian Lee is gone. Kentucky transfer Denzel Aberdeen made 36.3% of his threes last season, the best mark among Florida's listed newcomers and returners. Fland shot 24.4% from deep a year ago, so any improvement there would matter more over a long season than in this game. A cold shooting night is still the most likely way Jacksonville keeps the score closer than expected.

Tempo and the free-throw line

Last season the two teams played at very different speeds. Florida averaged 71.6 possessions per 40 minutes, 29th nationally, while Jacksonville's 65.1 ranked 301st. Golden's teams like to run, and a new Dolphins roster may not be able to slow them down.

Fouling was Jacksonville's other problem last season. Its opponents' free throw rate, which measures free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt, was 42.3%, 337th in the country. Florida drew fouls at a 39.1% rate (71st) by attacking the rim. If that pattern holds, Florida's big men will spend a lot of time at the line.

What to watch

• Early fouls on the Jacksonville bigs. Foul trouble would thin a frontcourt the Dolphins are still building.
• Aberdeen's role. Watch how quickly he settles into Florida's backcourt next to Fland.
• Series history. Florida leads the all-time series 33-5 and won the last meeting in Gainesville 81-60 in November 2024.
• Tip time. Florida's schedule lists 8 p.m. ET on SEC+.