Jackson State vs Tulane prediction: Daeshun Ruffin's encore runs into a rebuilt Tulane at Devlin Fieldhouse

One more year of Ruffin

Jackson State's season hinges on a player who wasn't supposed to be here. Daeshun Ruffin got an extra year of eligibility from the NCAA, granted after he missed much of the 2022-23 season at Ole Miss with an injury, and the school announced his return on Oct. 1. He was then named SWAC Preseason Player of the Year.

He closed last season scoring in double figures in 19 of 20 games. The last of those ended early: he left the March 5 regular-season finale with a foot and ankle injury, and the school has not given a health update since March. An Oct. 17 injury report listed no injuries for Jackson State.

The sideline is new too. Trey Johnson is in his first season in charge after Mo Williams left in the spring to become an assistant at Kentucky. Johnson's debut comes Nov. 2 against Texas Tech, so the Tigers arrive in New Orleans three days after opening against a power-conference team.

The gap last season left

Last season's numbers are a rough guide for two retooled rosters, but the distance between these programs was wide. Tulane finished 18-15 with an adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) of -3.8, 209th of 365. Jackson State went 12-21 at -22.8, 351st.

Tulane will look different. Its June signing class added transfers including Krystian Lewis from Louisiana-Monroe, Jordann Dumont from VCU, Joah Chappelle from Georgia State and Dame Salane from Arizona State, plus freshmen Tobias Brinkley, Noah Mister and Ryan Meltzer. How quickly that group connects matters more than any carryover rating.

Free throws and the rim

The clearest stylistic edge from last season sits at the foul line. Tulane drew free throws at one of the highest rates in the country, a free throw rate (attempts per field goal attempt) of 43.4%, 13th nationally. Jackson State's defense put opponents on the line at a 41.9% rate, 331st. If those habits survive the roster churn, Tulane gets steady points with the clock stopped.

Inside, Jackson State made just 44.6% of its twos last season, 360th. Tulane's defense blocked 12.6% of opponent two-point attempts, 35th. A Tigers attack that struggled to finish at the rim would face a team built to contest it, which puts more of the load on Ruffin's shot-making.

A glass nobody owned

Neither team held the defensive boards last season. Jackson State's defensive rebound rate of 62.8% ranked 363rd of 365, and Tulane's 64.6% ranked 355th. Tulane rarely chased its own misses, though, with an offensive rebound rate of 23.2%, 354th. Jackson State crashed more often, at 29.7%, 227th. Second chances are one place the underdog could steal possessions.

Jackson State also played fast, 53rd in pace last season, while Tulane sat near the middle at 176th. Turnovers cut against the Tigers: they gave the ball away on 19.6% of possessions, 336th.