Iona vs Hofstra prediction: Kevon Vanderhorst and Iona test Hofstra's brand-new roster in Hempstead

Two rosters starting over

Hofstra went 24-11 last season and played a tournament game as a 13 seed on March 20. Almost none of that team is left. The Pride return just 11.3% of last season's minutes, the lowest figure on either side of this matchup. Cruz Davis, who scored 20.1 points per game, is now at Texas Tech, and Preston Edmead left for NC State.

Iona is rebuilding too, with 27.4% of last season's minutes back after an 18-14 year. Dan Geriot, in his second season, has stitched together transfers from Drexel, Holy Cross, VCU and St. John's around returning guard Kosy Akametu.

That turnover makes last season's ratings a weak guide. Hofstra finished 92nd in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) and Iona 243rd, but those numbers describe players who mostly aren't here.

Iona runs through two guards

Kevon Vanderhorst arrived from Drexel as a 9.3-point scorer and opened his Iona career with 27 points on 10-of-15 shooting against Vermont, capped by the winning shot at the buzzer in a 56-55 escape. Akametu, a First Team Preseason All-Metro pick, added 18.

The problem is everyone else. Keyshawn Mitchell, a Third Team preseason pick, went 0-for-7 from the field, and the starting frontcourt barely scored. Iona made just 39.5% of its two-point tries, 310th of 348. If Hofstra can load up on the two guards, the Gaels don't yet have a third option they can trust.

Hofstra's length at the rim

The Pride's opener was a 97-51 rout of Saint Joseph's Long Island, an opponent without a Division I rating, so read it carefully. Still, the defensive profile stood out: Hofstra blocked 32.4% of opponent two-point attempts, first in the country, and held SJLI to 27.0% inside the arc.

Joshua DeCady, the lone returner of note, had 12 points, eight rebounds and two blocks. Hofstra also grabbed 47.6% of its own misses. Iona's defensive rebounding rate in its opener ranked 277th, so second chances could decide possessions when Iona's guards are forcing tough shots at the other end.

A pace and turnover tug-of-war

Iona played at 62 possessions per 40 minutes against Vermont, 333rd nationally, while Hofstra ran 76. Both teams have 11 days of rest, and the first team to impose its speed gets the game it wants.

Iona's best defensive weapon was pressure: the Gaels forced turnovers on 24.6% of Vermont's possessions, 76th in the country. Hofstra gave it away on 14.5% of its own trips, but that came against weaker resistance, and the new backcourt has to handle a better defense. Watch free throws late: Iona made just 41.7% at the line in its opener, 343rd of 348.

What the market will weigh

Books haven't posted a spread or total yet. Iona covered as a 1.5-point underdog against Vermont, and that game went under a closing total of 145.5. Hofstra's opener carried no line.

The recent series has swung with the venue. Hofstra won 90-76 at home in 2024, and Iona answered with an 81-73 win at home last season. This one is in Hempstead.