Illinois State vs North Dakota State prediction: Johnny Kinziger's hot start tests a rebuilt North Dakota State in Fargo

Kinziger's hot start

Johnny Kinziger spent last season as a steady secondary scorer. He opened this one as the focal point. The junior guard scored 30 points at Saint Mary's on Nov. 2 and logged 42 minutes. He made 6 of 10 threes.

That is a sharp turn from last season, when he shot 32.8% from deep. The opponent makes it worth noticing: Saint Mary's ranks 23rd in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), so an 85-90 loss there told us more than most openers. Malik Messina-Moore, a transfer from Xavier, added 16 off the bench, and the Redbirds shot 48.1% from three as a team.

The question is whether North Dakota State lets that continue. Last season the Bison let opponents take 43.9% of their shots from three, 44th most in the country. A defense that concedes looks is a risky one against a guard who is seeing the rim this well.

Rebuilt rosters on both benches

David Richman, in his 13th season, has 13 new players to sort out: eight transfers and five true freshmen. Players back from last season's 27-8 team account for just 23.2% of its minutes, and Andy Stefonowicz is the lone returning starter. Richman is still rotating lineups, and the team has no settled offensive identity yet.

Illinois State under Ryan Pedon returns 34.0% of its minutes, with Kinziger and Chase Walker among the holdovers. That turnover makes last season's ratings a loose guide. For what they are worth, Illinois State finished 89th in adjusted net efficiency and North Dakota State 123rd.

The Bison's opener offers little help. A 90-59 win over Minnesota Crookston inflates every rate in their column. Still, preseason voters like both teams: North Dakota State is the Summit favorite and Illinois State was picked second in the MVC.

Turnovers are the Redbirds' risk

Illinois State's weak spot at Saint Mary's was ball security. It turned the ball over on 24.3% of possessions, a turnover rate that ranks 298th. Shooting that well and still losing tells you where the possessions went.

North Dakota State built its identity on forcing mistakes last season, taking the ball away on 19.8% of opponent possessions, 48th nationally. Most of the players behind that number are gone. Stefonowicz is not, and he is the one who sets the tone at the point. If the Bison turn Illinois State's sloppiness into runouts, the shooting edge shrinks fast.

The glass and the clock

Last season Illinois State finished possessions as well as almost anyone, grabbing 74.5% of opponents' misses, 19th in the country. At Saint Mary's that slipped to 59.0%. Whether the reshaped roster can rebound like the old one is an open question.

The Redbirds also play slowly. Their pace of 65.8 possessions per 40 minutes ranked 309th in the opener, and last season's team was below average in tempo too. A grind favors the team that wins the turnover and rebounding battles, which puts weight on the two areas where Illinois State looked shakiest.

Series and setting

Illinois State has won the two recent meetings, including a 77-68 win in Fargo in November 2024. The teams play again Dec. 13 at Illinois State, so this is the first half of a home-and-home within a month.

Both teams come in with 11 days of rest, so neither has a schedule edge. No line has posted in our feed yet. The Redbirds are 1-0 against the spread after covering as 6.5-point underdogs at Saint Mary's, a game that went over its 148.5 total.