Howard vs Alcorn State prediction: Howard's turnover-hungry defense tests Alcorn State's ball security in Lorman

Pressure against shaky hands

Kenny Blakeney's seventh Howard team opens its season in Lorman with an identity built on disruption. Last season the Bison forced turnovers on 21.2% of opponent possessions, 12th of 365 Division I teams, and their steal rate ranked 40th. That pressure fed a defense that allowed 99.3 points per 100 possessions, 23rd nationally.

Alcorn State was the wrong kind of opponent for that style. The Braves turned it over on 20.5% of their possessions last season, 351st in the country, and their offense scored 100.6 points per 100 possessions, 342nd. If those habits carry over, Howard will get the ball back often and in transition.

The flip side is real. Howard was careless with its own possessions last season, ranking 317th in turnover rate, and Alcorn State's defense forced turnovers at the 80th-best rate. The Braves' best path is turning this into a scrappy, turnover-trading game.

Second chances and the foul line

The other lopsided matchup from last season sits on the glass. Howard grabbed 36.4% of its own misses, 28th nationally. Alcorn State finished 356th in defensive rebounding, so it rarely ended opponents' possessions after a miss.

Howard also lived at the line. Its free throw rate, free throw attempts per field goal attempt, was 44.2%, seventh in the country. Alcorn State's defense sent opponents to the stripe often, ranking 302nd in opponent free throw rate. Neither team leaned on the three; Howard ranked 287th and Alcorn State 304th in 3-point attempt rate last season. That points to a game fought at the rim and on the boards, where Howard held the advantage.

What last season says, and doesn't

Every number above is from 2025-26, and neither team's returning minutes are known, so treat them as a starting point rather than a forecast. Howard went 24-11 and won the MEAC tournament for an automatic NCAA bid. Opponent adjustment tempers that résumé. Howard's raw net efficiency ranked 48th, but its opponent-adjusted net rating ranked 200th.

Alcorn State went 9-23 and finished 355th in adjusted net efficiency. Its season ended with a 65-56 loss to Prairie View A&M in the SWAC second round on March 10. Jake Morton enters his second season with a team picked 10th in the SWAC preseason poll, reported Oct. 16.

Howard has added size in Gasper Kocevar, a 6-10 transfer from Fresno State who keeps three years of eligibility. Neither program has confirmed a starting lineup.

The last meeting

The teams met Nov. 13, 2025, in Washington, and Howard won 72-64 behind Bryce Harris's 24 points. This time Alcorn State has the home crowd at the Davey L. Whitney Complex, and Howard makes the long trip south for its opener. Tip time is still to be announced.