Howard Payne vs Texas State prediction: Texas State tunes up its paint-first attack before the Pac-12 arrives
A Division III visitor gives Terrence Johnson's retooled Bobcats a low-stakes look at the five transfers who will shape their first Pac-12 season.
- Texas State should control this at home; the real question is how quickly its new transfers settle into a paint-first, rebounding-heavy system.
- Watch the Bobcats' offensive glass: they ranked 69th nationally in offensive rebound rate last season, and now face a Division III front line.
- No spread or total is posted yet; last season's 19-13 record, closing with eight wins in 10 games, frames expectations.
A warmup with a bigger backdrop
Texas State hosts Howard Payne at Strahan Arena on Thursday, Nov. 5, in the kind of early-November game that matters less for the result than for what it reveals. The Bobcats are preparing for their Pac-12 debut, and Terrence Johnson is back on the bench after athletic director Don Coryell confirmed his return.
Johnson's group finished last season 19-13 and won eight of its final 10 games. It also brings in a fresh wave of transfers: Quel'Ron House (Southern Illinois), Paul Djobet (Omaha), Ronald Jessamy (Cal State Bakersfield), KJ Younger (UNC Greensboro) and Caleb Steger (Boston College). Howard Payne, a Division III program from the American Southwest Conference, offers a chance to sort out rotations before the conference slate arrives.
Built to work inside
Last season's Bobcats were among the most paint-committed teams in the country. Their 3-point attempt rate, the share of shots taken from deep, was 24.8%, which ranked 364th of 365. They made up for it on the glass, rebounding 34.4% of their own misses (69th).
That profile should travel well against a Division III visitor. The Bobcats' minutes-weighted average height is 76.9 inches, and second chances against a smaller opponent are the easiest way to turn a lopsided talent gap into a lopsided score.
Pressure on one end, care on the other
Texas State's defense was its calling card last season. It allowed 103.7 points per 100 possessions (74th) and turned opponents over on 19.1% of trips (70th), with a steal rate that ranked 31st.
The weak spots were self-inflicted. The Bobcats coughed it up on 18.5% of their own possessions (290th) and sent opponents to the line often, ranking 298th in opponent free throw rate. Against an overmatched opponent, cleaner ball security and fewer fouls are fair measures of whether the new backcourt has jelled. Texas State has no injuries listed, and nothing has surfaced on Howard Payne's availability.
Numbers that matter
| 3-point attempt rate (last season) | 24.8% | Ranked 364th of 365, making Texas State one of the most inside-oriented offenses in Division I. |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive rebound rate (last season) | 34.4% | Ranked 69th, a clear edge against a Division III front line. |
| Steal rate (last season) | 12.3% | Ranked 31st, the sharpest tool in a defense that finished 74th in efficiency. |
| Turnover rate (last season) | 18.5% | Ranked 290th, the area the new guards most need to clean up before Pac-12 play. |
Howard Payne vs Texas State: quick answers
When is Howard Payne vs Texas State?
Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.