Green Bay vs Cincinnati prediction: Cincinnati's rebuilt, banged-up backcourt faces Green Bay's slow-down Phoenix

A program starting from zero

Cincinnati's opener at Fifth Third Arena is less a test of last season's Bearcats than a first look at an entirely new team. Last season's group went 18-15 and finished 14th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). Almost none of it remains.

The only returner is Grant Darbyshire, who logged 1.9 minutes a game, and Cincinnati brings back none of last season's scoring. Moustapha Thiam left for Michigan, and Baba Miller and Day Day Thomas are gone too. That makes last season's numbers a weak guide to this team.

Jerrod Calhoun, in his first season, rebuilt around transfer guards. The most productive of them won't play: MJ Collins Jr., who scored 17.5 points a game at Utah State last season, is ineligible for 2026-27 after a court ruling. Big 12 coaches picked Cincinnati eighth of 16.

The game is listed for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, though the schools haven't confirmed the time.

The injury list is long

Tylen Riley is the guard who has played through October. After an earlier hand injury, he appeared in both exhibitions and was the focal point when Illinois won 105-96 at Fifth Third Arena on Oct. 17. His usage rate at Tulsa last season was 27.6 percent, the highest among the transfers.

The rest of the backcourt is less settled. Javontae Campbell, who averaged 18.7 points at Bowling Green last season, wore a boot on the bench Oct. 7 and missed the Illinois game. Elijah Perryman (calf), Akai Fleming (knee) and Deshaun Vaden (injury) also missed Illinois, and Cincinnati leaned on nine players for heavy minutes. Perryman was aiming to return for the next game. Projected starter Myles Colvin limped out of the Oct. 7 exhibition, and Calhoun said it was not serious. None of the four who sat against Illinois has a confirmed status for Nov. 5.

Green Bay's efficient, deliberate blueprint

Doug Gottlieb's second Green Bay team was picked second in the Horizon League, its highest preseason slot under him, after a third-place finish. Last season's Phoenix played slowly, 312th of 365 in pace, and made its possessions count. It ranked 38th in effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) and 35th in free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt).

The roster has changed, though. Five of the six players standing 6-7 or taller are new to the program. Jaxon Edwards and Jalen Overway were reported out for the season with torn ACLs as of Sept. 4, and the eligibility of two fifth-year players, Orlando Lovejoy among them, was being contested in a legal process as of Oct. 14. Green Bay lost an exhibition to Wisconsin on Oct. 15 and hosts Marquette in another on Oct. 19.

Where the Phoenix gave it back

Defense was Green Bay's problem last season. It ranked 303rd in adjusted defensive efficiency, forced turnovers on 13.7 percent of possessions (350th) and let opponents shoot 36.1 percent from three (327th).

That is the opening for Cincinnati's guards. Trevian Carson made 37.5 percent of his threes at North Dakota State last season, and Riley hit 38.9 percent at Tulsa. If Campbell is back, his 3.0 steals a game at Bowling Green could also pressure a Green Bay offense built on patient possessions.

The free-throw line looks different in Cincinnati too. Last season's Bearcats ranked 323rd in free throw percentage. Tyler Tejada shot 88.2 percent at Towson last season, which could help a Cincinnati team that ranked 323rd in free throw percentage last season.