Gardner-Webb vs Texas prediction: Matas Vokietaitis and a rebuilt Texas aim at Gardner-Webb's soft middle
Texas returns almost none of last season's minutes, but its one proven big man gets an early test against the worst interior defense in the country last season.
- Texas should control the paint and the glass from the start, with the margin shaped by how quickly its new guards settle in.
- Matas Vokietaitis inside against a Gardner-Webb defense that allowed 58.7% on twos last season, 364th of 365.
- No spread or total is posted yet; last season's adjusted net ratings had Texas 37th and Gardner-Webb 360th.
The center is the constant
Texas reached the Sweet 16 in March and then lost nearly everyone who got it there. Of the two returning players, only one played real minutes: Matas Vokietaitis, who scored 15.6 points a game last season on 61.7% shooting without attempting a three.
That is a bad problem for Gardner-Webb. The Runnin' Bulldogs let opponents make 58.7% of their two-point shots last season, 364th of 365 Division I teams. Their block rate ranked 329th. Texas also starts out bigger: its roster averages 78.3 inches, weighted by minutes, to Gardner-Webb's 75.5.
TCU transfer David Punch, projected to start alongside Vokietaitis, adds a second rim presence. He blocked 1.9 shots a game for the Horned Frogs last season.
A roster built in one offseason
Players on Texas's current roster accounted for just 13.2% of the team's minutes last season. Dailyn Swain left for the NBA, Tramon Mark ran out of eligibility and Jordan Pope is out of eligibility at Texas too, though he now appears on Texas A&M's roster. Sean Miller, in his second season, rebuilt through the portal, and outside expectations are high, with Texas framed as a potential top-10 team.
The new lead guard is Isaiah Johnson, who averaged 16.9 points at Colorado last season and made 37.8% of his threes. He missed practice time over the summer with a thumb injury, and Miller said then that he would be fully back; nothing newer has surfaced. Freshman Austin Goosby, projected to start next to him, missed several weeks with injuries earlier this fall and has returned to practice.
The absence that matters is Mikey Lewis. The Saint Mary's transfer fractured the fifth metatarsal in his right foot in practice in late September and had surgery Oct. 1. Miller called it "non-contact, bizarre," and his target return is around December, so Lewis won't play here.
Gardner-Webb starts over again
Gardner-Webb went 4-29 last season and 1-15 in the Big South, and the league's coaches picked the Bulldogs ninth this year. Jeremy Luther, also in his second season, has what the school calls a "revamped roster": players back from last season logged 32.4% of its minutes.
The returners don't project to help much from outside. Ace Talbert, who started 29 games, made 26.1% of his threes last season, and the team's best shooter, Spence Sims, is gone. Last season's Bulldogs ranked 343rd in turnover rate, giving the ball away on 19.9% of possessions.
Texas isn't built to punish that, though. Last season's Longhorns forced turnovers at a 13.3% rate, 356th nationally. Gardner-Webb's best hope is to hold onto the ball and make Texas score in the half court.
Extra trips and free throws
Texas did its damage last season with second chances and trips to the line. The Longhorns grabbed 36.0% of their own misses, 34th nationally, while Gardner-Webb ranked 353rd in defensive rebounding. Texas also ranked 12th in free throw rate, with free throw attempts equal to 43.5% of its shot attempts.
The schedule adds strain for the visitors. Gardner-Webb is listed at UConn on Nov. 2, then travels to Austin for the 7 p.m. CT tip on Thursday, carried on SECN+.
No sportsbook has posted a line yet. When one appears, keep the caveat in mind: last season's ratings had Texas 37th in adjusted net efficiency and Gardner-Webb 360th, but both rosters have changed so much that those numbers are only a loose guide.
Where the money is on Gardner-Webb vs Texas
On the Kalshi moneyline: Gardner-Webb: 39% of bets, 1% of the money; Texas: 62% of bets, 100% of the money.
Key players
- Matas Vokietaitis (Texas): Scored 15.6 points a game on 61.7% shooting last season, the only major returner on the roster.
- Isaiah Johnson (Texas): Averaged 16.9 points and made 37.8% of his threes at Colorado last season.
- David Punch (Texas): Blocked 1.9 shots and grabbed 6.8 rebounds a game in 34 starts at TCU last season.
- Jacob Hudson (Gardner-Webb): Led the returners with 10.7 points a game last season on a 22% usage rate.
- Ace Talbert (Gardner-Webb): Started 29 games last season but shot 26.1% from three.
- Mikhali Pocknett (Gardner-Webb): Averaged 4.1 rebounds in 14.1 minutes a game at Buffalo last season.
Numbers that matter
| Gardner-Webb opponent 2-point % | 58.7% | Ranked 364th of 365 last season, a soft spot for Vokietaitis and Punch. |
|---|---|---|
| Texas returning minutes | 13.2% | Almost the whole Texas rotation is new, so last season's team numbers carry little weight. |
| Texas offensive rebound % | 36.0% | Ranked 34th last season against a Gardner-Webb defensive glass that ranked 353rd. |
| Texas free throw rate | 12th | Texas lived at the line last season, which can stretch a margin in a game it controls. |
| Gardner-Webb turnover rate | 19.9% | Ranked 343rd last season, though Texas forced few turnovers. |
Gardner-Webb vs Texas: quick answers
When is Gardner-Webb vs Texas?
Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.
Where is the money on Gardner-Webb vs Texas?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Gardner-Webb: 39% of bets, 1% of the money; Texas: 62% of bets, 100% of the money.