Fairleigh Dickinson vs Oklahoma prediction: Oklahoma needs a clean night after its stunning loss to East Texas A&M

A rebuilt Oklahoma, already bruised

Oklahoma opened its season by losing 68-64 at home to East Texas A&M, a team that closed as a 30.5-point underdog. Eleven days later, the Sooners return to the Lloyd Noble Center against a Fairleigh Dickinson team coming off a 120-45 loss at Illinois, the largest margin in Illinois program history.

This Oklahoma roster bears little resemblance to last season's. Players back from 2025-26 account for 38.4% of last season's minutes, so last season's ratings (45th nationally in adjusted net efficiency, which measures points per 100 possessions adjusted for opponents) are a loose guide at best. The newcomers are proven: B.J. Edwards from SMU, Duke Brennan from Villanova, Tyler Hendricks from Utah Valley, Pop Isaacs from Texas A&M and Khani Rooths from Louisville. Porter Moser called this possibly his most talented roster, and he also said injuries made it hard to see the whole group together.

Turnovers and the free-throw line

The opener showed where the Sooners are still unfinished. Their turnover rate (giveaways per 100 possessions) was 22.7%, ranked 278th. Last season's team ranked 34th in that stat, so the problem is a new one for a new backcourt.

Oklahoma got to the line constantly, with a free throw rate (free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt) of 61.5%, 26th nationally. It then made only 53.1% of those free throws. In a four-point loss, that was the margin.

FDU's defense did not force many mistakes against Illinois, with a forced turnover rate of 9.3% that ranked 343rd. If that holds, Oklahoma should be able to clean up its offense against this opponent.

FDU's three-point bet

Fairleigh Dickinson returns 25.2% of last season's minutes. Last season's team finished 331st in adjusted net efficiency, and Jack Castleberry, in his fourth season, has rebuilt the roster around guards who shoot a lot.

Against Illinois, 54.1% of FDU's shots were threes (31st most nationally), and the Knights made 15.2% of them. That is not just a bad night: last season's team shot 31.0% from three, 325th. Sophomore David Jevtic, the 2026 NEC Rookie of the Year, was the only Knight in double figures. Freshman Diing Maiwen made two threes in his debut.

Oklahoma's defense allowed opponents to shoot 40.7% from three in the opener. That leaves FDU a narrow path to keeping this close.

Size on the glass and at the rim

Oklahoma's frontcourt should decide the possession battle. The Sooners rebounded 42.4% of their own misses in the opener, 65th nationally. Their block rate (blocks per opponent two-point attempt) was 23.3%, 17th. Derrion Reid had three blocks and 10 rebounds.

Illinois overwhelmed FDU on the boards, but last season's Knights were one of the better defensive rebounding teams in the country, ranked 28th at 74.0%. Most of those rebounders are gone, though. Departed starters Taeshaud Jackson and Cyril Martynov took much of that work with them.

Who is available for Oklahoma

Oklahoma's injury picture has shifted for weeks. Dayton Forsythe went through concussion protocol and then started the opener. Tyler Hendricks was in concussion protocol as of Oct. 27 but played off the bench Nov. 2. Reid missed the summer and Rooths missed much of the offseason, but both started the opener.

Tae Davis is the open question. As of Oct. 27, Moser said Davis was eligible to practice but could not take part until he received medical clearance. A later report said Davis was expected to be ready, but there is no confirmation that he played Nov. 2, and Oklahoma hasn't said whether he will play Friday. No availability news has surfaced for FDU.