DePaul vs Northwestern prediction: Jack Karasinski's hot hand tests DePaul's rebuilt defense in Evanston

Two rosters, one rivalry

Northwestern has won three straight against its Chicago-area neighbor, the last an 81-79 escape at DePaul a year ago. Almost nobody from those teams is left. The Wildcats return 21.8% of last season's minutes, and the Blue Demons return 34.7%. Friday's game is an early read on two rebuilt rosters, and on the shooters each one brought in.

Both teams are 1-0 and arrive on the same rest after opening Nov. 2. Last season's team numbers mean little for either side, so the clues sit in one game each and in the transfers' old lines.

Northwestern's imported shooters

Chris Collins rebuilt around transfers, and the opener against Binghamton showed why. Jack Karasinski, a graduate forward from Bellarmine, scored 24 points with a career-high seven threes. He shot 41.5% from deep at Bellarmine last season, so the stroke isn't new.

Jake West, a returner who started games as a freshman and now runs the point, added 20 points and 12 assists. As a team Northwestern posted a 67.3% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times), 20th in the country.

The opponent deserves an asterisk. Binghamton ranked 361st in last season's adjusted net efficiency, near the bottom of Division I. LA Pratt, who had dealt with a foot issue, was announced as a starter for the exhibition with Illinois State and played in the opener. Jayden Hodge, a wing listed as a key reserve, was limited to non-contact practice with a knee injury before that exhibition. His current status hasn't been reported.

Where DePaul's defense answers

DePaul entered the season ranked 56th by KenPom, with the 23rd-ranked defense. In Holtmann's third season, Magoon Gwath and Koree Cotton were brought in to bolster that end.

Against West Georgia, the Blue Demons held their opponent to 34.1% on two-pointers. They also barely fouled. West Georgia's free throw rate (free throw attempts per shot attempt) was 10.1%, sixth-lowest in the country.

That discipline is the key against Northwestern, which took 57.7% of its shots from three in the opener. If DePaul can close out on shooters without sending them to the line, the Wildcats will have to work for their points inside.

DePaul's jumpers have to fall

DePaul's opener came in two halves. The Blue Demons trailed West Georgia 29-31 at the break, then outscored the Wolves 46-27 after it. The problem was the arc. DePaul made 21.9% of its threes, 303rd nationally, and still took more than half its shots from deep.

Kruz McClure missed all six of his threes. Ade Popoola, the Tulsa transfer, was the exception at 4 of 8, and he made 40.9% last season. Cotton scored 20 points despite shooting 1 of 6 from three.

Depth is thin in spots. Returning forward Théo Pierre-Justin had a lower-body injury that kept him out of every scrimmage and exhibition, and it hasn't been confirmed whether he played Nov. 2. Before the opener, Amsal Delalić (knee) and freshman Mason Lockett IV (foot) were expected to be out for some time.

Tempo and the market

Northwestern likes a slow game. It played at 63 possessions per 40 minutes in its opener, 326th nationally, and ranked 324th in pace last season. DePaul ran faster against West Georgia, but last season the Blue Demons were also among the slowest teams in the country.

Both openers went under the closing total. Northwestern covered as a 20.5-point favorite, and DePaul failed to cover as a 24.75-point favorite. No spread or total has been posted for Friday.

The game airs on BTN. Northwestern lists the tip as 7 or 8 p.m., and the exact time hasn't been announced.