CSU Fullerton Titans vs South Dakota Coyotes prediction: Cal State Fullerton and South Dakota push the total to 174
Two rebuilt teams that each allowed 102 points in their last game meet for the first time, and the market is pricing a shootout in Vermillion.
| Spread | South Dakota -1.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 176.5 |
- Expect a fast, foul-heavy game with few stops. Each team gave up 102 points in its most recent outing.
- South Dakota's offensive glass and trips to the line against a Fullerton defense that rebounded and defended without fouling poorly in its opener.
- The total climbed from 166.5 to 174, and both teams' openers against lined opponents went over.
A total built on bad defense
Neither of these rebuilt rosters has shown it can get a stop. Cal State Fullerton gave up 102 at San Diego State on Tuesday. South Dakota gave up 102 to Northern Kentucky at home the next night. This is the first meeting between the programs, and the betting market has drawn its conclusion: the total first appeared in our feed at 166.5 and now sits at 174.
Tempo feeds it. Fullerton played 79.5 possessions per 40 minutes in its opener, 33rd fastest in the country, and ranked 2nd in pace last season. South Dakota is not far behind. The Titans also trailed SDSU by 11 at the half, after allowing 54 first-half points. Early numbers are thin, but two defenses that rank this poorly and this quickly rarely settle into a slow game.
Second chances and free throws
The clearest edge on the floor belongs to South Dakota, and it comes from extra possessions. Fullerton grabbed just 48.6% of San Diego State's misses (defensive rebound rate), 360th of 363 teams. The Coyotes have rebounded 36.8% of their own misses so far.
The free throw line tilts the same way. South Dakota's free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) is 53.0%, 43rd nationally, and it is making 77.4% of those attempts. Fullerton sent San Diego State to the line at a 50.0% rate, 318th. In a game the market prices as close, that combination of putbacks and free points is how a home team pulls away.
Summers leads the new Coyotes
South Dakota brought in 12 newcomers around returning sophomore Vince Buzelis, so last season's team numbers say little about this group. Sacramento State transfer Jahni Summers has been the engine. He is averaging 20.5 points and scored 24 against Northern Kentucky, and he shot 42.2% from three for the Hornets last season.
Buzelis set a career high with 20 in that loss, and Kajus Kublickas added 15 off the bench. Duquesne transfer Stef van Bussel gives the Coyotes a finisher inside. The team is making 67.2% of its twos, 28th in the country, and Fullerton blocked shots at a rate that ranked 269th in the opener. Josiah Dotzler, back after missing all of last season with an injury, is still finding his touch. He went 2 of 11 against Northern Kentucky.
Fullerton needs its shooters to wake up
Dedrique Taylor, the 2026 Big West Coach of the Year, built last season's 18-16 team around pace and pressure. The opener showed the same appetite for threes but no accuracy. The Titans shot 21.9% from deep, 335th, and Anthony Ponga and Tiernan Stynes combined to miss all eight of their attempts.
The help should come from familiar names. Christian Williams shot 37.2% from three last season, and Bailey Nunn hit 42.6% in a smaller role. Joshua Ward carried the opener with 22 points, and Matthew Willenborg went 5 of 6 from the field. Fullerton also protected the ball, with an 11.4% turnover rate that ranked 29th, which keeps South Dakota from running off live-ball steals.
Where the line sits
South Dakota is a 1.5-point favorite after opening as a slight home underdog in our feed, so the movement has gone toward the Coyotes. Neither team covered in its lined opener, but the schedules differ. Fullerton's loss came at a San Diego State team that ranked 51st in adjusted net rating, while South Dakota lost to a Northern Kentucky side ranked 173rd.
Last season's final adjusted ratings favor Fullerton by a wide margin, but both rosters changed heavily, and Fullerton returns only 33.8% of its minutes. Media voters picked the Titans 7th in the Big West and the Coyotes 5th in the Summit. No injuries have surfaced for either team. Tip is 2 p.m. ET on Summit League Network.
CSU Fullerton Titans vs South Dakota Coyotes line movement and odds
| Book | Titans ML | Coyotes ML | Titans spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -102 | -118 | +1.5 (-118) | o175.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +102 | -125 | +1.5 (-114) | o176.5 (-113) |
| DraftKings | +100 | -120 | +1.5 (-118) | o175.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | +100 | -120 | +1.5 (-120) | o175.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | -105 | -115 | +1 (-110) | o175.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -105 | -114 | +1.5 (-120) | o176.5 (-105) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +100 | -125 | +1.5 (-110) | o176.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +100 | -120 | +1 (-110) | o174.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on CSU Fullerton Titans vs South Dakota Coyotes
On the Kalshi moneyline: CSU Fullerton Titans: 29% of bets, 17% of the money; South Dakota Coyotes: 72% of bets, 83% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: South Dakota Coyotes -1.5: 67% of bets, 26% of the money; CSU Fullerton Titans +1.5: 33% of bets, 74% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 176.5: 53% of bets, 79% of the money; Under 176.5: 48% of bets, 21% of the money.
Key players
- Joshua Ward (Cal State Fullerton): Ward scored 22 points on 8-of-17 shooting at San Diego State with a 32.8% usage rate.
- Christian Williams (Cal State Fullerton): Williams shot 37.2% from three last season and scored 12 in the opener.
- Matthew Willenborg (Cal State Fullerton): Willenborg went 5 of 6 from the field with 7 rebounds in 23 minutes against SDSU.
- Bailey Nunn (Cal State Fullerton): Nunn shot 42.6% from three last season but started this year 1 of 5.
- Jahni Summers (South Dakota): Summers is averaging 20.5 points and has made 6 of 13 threes.
- Vince Buzelis (South Dakota): Buzelis set a career high with 20 points against Northern Kentucky on 8-of-12 shooting.
- Kajus Kublickas (South Dakota): The Pacific transfer is averaging 14.5 points off the bench on 69.2% shooting.
- Stef van Bussel (South Dakota): Van Bussel is shooting 76.9% from the field and averaging 6.5 rebounds.
Numbers that matter
| Total now | 174.0 | Up from 166.5 when our feed first recorded the game. |
|---|---|---|
| Fullerton defensive rebound % | 48.6% | Ranked 360th of 363 in the opener, against a South Dakota team grabbing 36.8% of its own misses. |
| South Dakota free throw rate | 53.0% | Ranked 43rd, against a Fullerton defense that allowed a 50.0% rate. |
| Fullerton 3-point % | 21.9% | Ranked 335th in the opener for a team that takes many of its shots from deep. |
| Spread | -1.5 | South Dakota is favored after the line moved toward the Coyotes from a slight underdog price. |
CSU Fullerton Titans vs South Dakota Coyotes: quick answers
Who is favored in CSU Fullerton Titans vs South Dakota Coyotes?
South Dakota is favored by 1.5 points (South Dakota -1.5).
What is the over/under for CSU Fullerton Titans vs South Dakota Coyotes?
The total is 176.5 points.
When is CSU Fullerton Titans vs South Dakota Coyotes?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for CSU Fullerton Titans vs South Dakota Coyotes?
Yes: CSU Fullerton Titans opened -1.5 and is now +1.5, and the total moved from 167.5 to 175.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on CSU Fullerton Titans vs South Dakota Coyotes?
On the Kalshi moneyline: CSU Fullerton Titans: 29% of bets, 17% of the money; South Dakota Coyotes: 72% of bets, 83% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: South Dakota Coyotes -1.5: 67% of bets, 26% of the money; CSU Fullerton Titans +1.5: 33% of bets, 74% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 176.5: 53% of bets, 79% of the money; Under 176.5: 48% of bets, 21% of the money.