Cornell vs Lehigh prediction: Cornell's three-point barrage tests Lehigh's arc-denying defense in Bethlehem

Cornell's threes against a wall

Cornell built last season around the three-point line. The Big Red took 52.6% of their shots from deep, fifth-most in Division I, and made 39.3% of them, sixth nationally. That produced an effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark that counts threes 1.5 times) of 59.9%, fifth in the country. The ball moved, too: Cornell's assist rate ranked second.

Lehigh's defense was built to take that shot away. Opponents took only 31.8% of their attempts from three against the Mountain Hawks, which ranked 355th of 365, meaning almost no defense in the country allowed fewer. When teams did shoot from deep, they made 32.5%, 113th nationally.

That is the game. If Lehigh can run Cornell off the line again and force it inside, the Big Red have to win with two-pointers. They can do that, having shot 60.9% inside the arc last season, fifth in the country, but a Cornell team that takes over half its shots from three plays a very different game from one that is forced inside. These are last season's numbers, and both rosters have turned over since, so treat them as a description of each program's identity rather than a forecast.

Where Lehigh can score back

Cornell's offense carried a defense that couldn't stop anyone. The Big Red allowed 115.0 points per 100 possessions last season, 324th nationally, and opponents shot 37.2% from three against them, 357th. Cornell also rarely created extra possessions. Its forced turnover rate ranked 272nd, and its block rate ranked 301st.

Lehigh needs those openings, because its own offense was its weak spot. The Mountain Hawks scored 105.4 points per 100 possessions, 295th, and grabbed just 23.9% of their misses on the offensive glass, 350th. They won't get many second chances, so they have to make the first shot count against a defense that let plenty fall.

Size may help. Weighted by minutes, Lehigh's players average 77.4 inches against 75.9 for Cornell. Against a Big Red frontline that didn't block many shots, that gives Lehigh a way to score inside.

A tempo tug of war

Cornell played fast last season, at 71.7 possessions per 40 minutes, 24th in the country, and averaged 88.5 points, sixth nationally. It also gave up 83.4 per game, which ranked 355th. Lehigh played at 66.7 possessions, 230th, and both scored and allowed points in the low 70s.

Whoever sets the pace shapes the score. Last season's final opponent-adjusted ratings point toward Cornell: a net mark of 1.4 per 100 possessions, 151st, against Lehigh's -12.1, 296th. Those ratings are from last season, and a new year can reshuffle them quickly.

The schedule and the stakes

Lehigh opens its season on Nov. 2 at Saint Louis, then returns home for three straight: Cornell on Nov. 5, Brown on Nov. 8 and Marist on Nov. 13. Brett Reed is still on the bench, and the program comes off an 18-17 season that ended with a 74-60 win over Boston University in the Patriot League title game.

Cornell went 15-13 under Jon Jaques, in his second season, and lost 88-76 to Yale in the Ivy semifinals. The Big Red were picked fifth in the Ivy preseason poll, behind Penn, Harvard, Yale and Princeton. The last time these teams played was also at Lehigh, on Nov. 6, 2023, and Cornell won 84-78. No injuries or eligibility issues had been reported for either team as of this week.