Colorado Buffaloes vs San Diego St Aztecs prediction: San Diego State's glass-crashers test Colorado's box-outs at Walton Classic

A tribute game, a box-out problem

The first Bill Walton Classic brings back a series that has been dormant since the 1975-76 season and sits tied 3-3. Walton, who died in May 2024, always loved stopping in Boulder, and his son Chris played for the Aztecs. The floor is officially neutral, but it is in San Diego, and tip is set for 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday.

The basketball question is simpler than the backstory: can Colorado keep San Diego State off the offensive glass? In a 102-78 opening win over Cal State Fullerton, the Aztecs rebounded 51.4% of their own misses. That offensive rebound rate ranks 12th nationally. Tae Simmons did much of the damage with 14 points and 11 rebounds.

Colorado beat Abilene Christian 94-59, and its defensive rebounding rate that night ranked 51st. Tad Boyle still wasn't happy. He counted 17 missed box-out assignments, and Abilene Christian briefly led. A bigger, deeper rebounding team will punish those lapses.

Two tempos, one total

San Diego State played at 79.5 possessions per 40 minutes in its opener, 33rd in the country. Colorado played at 69, which ranks 248th. The Aztecs poured in 54 first-half points against Fullerton. Colorado led Abilene Christian by only two at halftime before pulling away.

Whoever sets the pace shapes the total, which sits at 154.5. Colorado's opener stayed under its closing number. San Diego State's went over. Colorado is unlikely to win a track meet, so expect Boyle's group to make the Aztecs defend in the half court.

New rosters, old reputations

Neither team looks much like last season's version, so last season's numbers are a loose guide. San Diego State returns just 14.6% of last season's minutes, and Colorado returns 36.5%. The Aztecs' adjusted defense (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) ranked 16th last season. That unit was built around players who have since left for Providence, Creighton and Nebraska.

Colorado's defense ranked 301st in efficiency last season, and its best scorer then, Isaiah Johnson, is now at Texas. The Buffaloes do keep Barrington Hargress, who shot 48.1% from three last season. They also added Neely, who averaged 11.5 rebounds at UNC Greensboro last season. Neely is the key piece in the rebounding fight.

Shot-making and ball security

Colorado's offense was nearly flawless in its opener. It made 52.6% of its threes, second nationally, even though it rarely shoots them. Jalin Holland led the way with 18 points on 8-of-12 shooting. One night of that against Abilene Christian won't hold, but the Buffaloes do have reliable guard shooting.

San Diego State's answer on the perimeter is Latrell Davis, who scored 25 points and hit five of his eight threes in his return from injury. The Aztecs also lived at the line, with a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 50.0%.

Colorado should be able to protect the ball. San Diego State's forced turnover rate ranked 351st in the opener, so the Aztecs may not get many easy steals to help their fast pace.

Who's in and who's unsettled

Colorado forward David Gomez, coming back from offseason foot surgery, played five minutes in an October exhibition against North Texas. Colorado hasn't confirmed whether he will play Saturday, and his return matters for a thin frontcourt.

San Diego State hasn't said whether Rice transfer Nick Anderson will play. An unofficial listing has him out with a knee injury. Anderson shot 40% on 210 three-point attempts last season, so his absence would remove a lot of spacing. There has been no recent word on forward Luka Skoric. Elzie Harrington, who carried a leg tag on the roster page, played in the opener and scored 15 points.