Coastal Carolina vs Duke prediction: John Blackwell and a remade Duke test Coastal Carolina's stingy defense

A new Duke, built fast

Duke went 35-3 last season and finished with the No. 1 adjusted defense in the country, allowing 88.7 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents. Most of the people who built that team are gone. Players on this season's roster logged only 43.2% of last season's minutes and 36.5% of its points.

The biggest hole is Cameron Boozer, who averaged 22.5 points. Isaiah Evans and his 15.0 points left too. The replacement scoring starts with John Blackwell, who averaged 19.1 points at Wisconsin last season and made 38.9% of his threes. He's expected to start in the backcourt with Caleb Foster, with a freshman class led by Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje and Deron Rippey Jr. filling in behind them.

The outside world isn't worried about the turnover. Duke sits No. 1 in the preseason KenPom ratings and took 45 of 49 first-place votes in the ACC media poll. This Nov. 5 game comes just days after the Nov. 2 opener against Army, so it's an early look at how the new rotation is settling.

Coastal's defense travels

Coastal Carolina's 19-13 season last year rested on defense. The Chanticleers held opponents to a 45.9% effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark that counts threes 1.5 times), 12th in Division I, and opponents made just 44.7% of their twos, 7th nationally.

That defense didn't take the ball away, though. Coastal forced turnovers at a 12.4% rate, 364th of 365. Against a Duke team that will start the season sorting out new ballhandlers, the lack of pressure is a gift: the Blue Devils should get clean possessions and plenty of shots.

The glass is where Duke can turn that into points. Last season Duke grabbed 38.4% of its own misses, 6th in the country. Coastal was solid on the defensive boards, 38th nationally, but a frontcourt with Patrick Ngongba II and Belmont transfer Drew Scharnowski gives Duke a real size edge on second chances.

Where Coastal's offense stalls

Scoring was the Chanticleers' problem. Their effective field goal percentage of 48.5% ranked 322nd, and they made only 46.8% of their twos, 347th. Last season Duke allowed opponents 46.4% inside the arc, 27th nationally, and it rarely sent them to the line: its opponent free throw rate ranked 2nd in Division I.

Last season's numbers are a shaky guide here, because coach Justin Gray rebuilt the roster. Coastal added 11 newcomers, seven transfers and four freshmen. Among them are Ashton Hardaway (Memphis/Saint Mary's), Jaylen Cross (Wake Forest) and Caleb Middleton (Elon). Gray has named Miami (Ohio) transfer Trey Perry and Kennesaw State transfer Darius Washington III as early leaders, and returner Tristan Thompson is taking on a bigger role in his second year. How much better these pieces shoot than last year's group is the biggest unknown on Coastal's side.

Duke's injury ledger

Foster is dealing with an ankle injury. Jon Scheyer said at ACC Media Day that the injury shouldn't keep Foster out of the Nov. 2 opener, and a note from around Oct. 17 still has him expected back for that game. If he's ready for the opener, he should be available here.

Scharnowski's knee is less clear. In late September Scheyer gave no timetable, saying only that the goal was to be ready before the season. Ngongba is coming back from a foot injury in March, and his current status is unclear. Coastal has no reported injuries.