Chicago State vs Incarnate Word prediction: Incarnate Word's shooters open against Chicago State's most-bombed defense

The arc decides it

Both programs open their seasons on Thursday, Nov. 5, at the McDermott Center, and the clearest edge from last season sits beyond the three-point line. Incarnate Word made 37.7% of its threes in 2025-26, 22nd of 365 Division I teams. That was the one elite number on a 12-19 team.

Chicago State's defense invited exactly that shot. Last season, 51.6% of opponents' field goal attempts came from three, the 3rd-highest share in the country, and those opponents hit 35.7% (309th). If the Cougars keep the same pack-the-paint posture, the Cardinals will get open looks from the shooters who carried them.

The inside picture was no better for Chicago State. Opponents shot 59.8% on twos, dead last in Division I. Incarnate Word was a poor two-point team itself at 49.2%, but this matchup doesn't ask much of it inside.

Steals against second chances

Chicago State's case rests on chaos. The Cougars forced turnovers on 20.5% of opponent possessions last season (31st nationally) and ranked 24th in steal rate. Incarnate Word was ordinary with the ball, giving it away on 16.9% of trips (187th), so live-ball turnovers are the Cougars' best route to easy offense.

The glass cuts the other way. Incarnate Word grabbed 34.1% of its own misses (76th), while Chicago State secured only 65.9% of opponents' misses (336th). The Cardinals also played with more size, with a minutes-weighted average height of 77.3 inches against 75.7 for the Cougars. Every steal Chicago State generates could be offset by a second shot it concedes.

A slow first night

Neither team pushed the ball last season. Chicago State played at 64.5 possessions per 40 minutes (324th), and Incarnate Word at 65.9 (275th). Fewer possessions shrink the number of chances for the better team to pull away, and Chicago State's offense struggled to score in any setting: its effective field goal percentage, which counts threes as 1.5 makes, was 45.5%, 361st of 365.

Last season's adjusted efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) put Incarnate Word 264th in net rating and Chicago State 337th. Those are last season's final numbers, and no one has played a game yet.

New faces on both benches

Landon Bussie enters his second season at Chicago State after a 7-25 finish that ended with a 79-75 loss to LIU in the Northeast Conference Tournament on March 5. The Cougars have added transfers, including Marcel Bryant from Prairie View A&M. With that much churn, last season's team numbers are a loose guide to this roster.

Shane Heirman's Incarnate Word adds D'Arrae Goodwin after one season at San Diego, and Maximo Garcia-Plata is listed as a transfer from Florida State. No injury or eligibility issues turned up for either program in the last three weeks.