Chattanooga vs Penn State prediction: Chattanooga's three-point volume tests Penn State's porous perimeter defense
Last season Chattanooga lived behind the arc and Penn State couldn't guard it, but two heavily remade rosters make that history a guide, not a verdict.
- Expect Chattanooga to hunt threes and Penn State to lean on size inside; whichever roster has fixed last season's flaws controls the night.
- Chattanooga's shooters against Penn State's perimeter defense, which allowed 38.8% from three last season, 363rd of 365.
- No line is posted yet; last season's adjusted net ratings had Penn State 137th and Chattanooga 292nd.
The three-point question
The most striking clash in last season's numbers is simple. Chattanooga shot threes as often as almost anyone in the country, and Penn State couldn't stop them.
The Mocs took 50.6% of their shots from deep, 13th in Division I, and made 35.8% of them, 76th. That volume and accuracy gave them an effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times) of 55.1%, 42nd nationally.
Penn State's defense was the opposite story. Opponents shot 38.8% from three against the Nittany Lions, 363rd of 365, and their opponent effective field goal percentage of 58.4% ranked dead last in the country.
The caveat is large. Chattanooga finalized a roster with 11 newcomers this summer, and the Penn State players who filled last winter's injury reports have since left. This angle is about whether either program's identity survived the turnover.
What the schedules hid
Raw numbers flatter Chattanooga and bury Penn State, and the adjusted ratings (points per 100 possessions, corrected for opponent strength) tell a different story.
Chattanooga's offense scored 118.0 points per 100 possessions last season, 53rd nationally, but its adjusted offensive efficiency was 106, 220th. The SoCon schedule inflated the shooting.
Penn State went the other way. A Big Ten slate dragged its raw net efficiency to -8.4, 324th, yet its adjusted net rating of 2.8 ranked 137th. Chattanooga's adjusted net of -11.9 sat 292nd. Both teams finished below .500, Penn State at 12-20 and Chattanooga at 13-19, but they were not playing the same level of opponent.
Size and the free-throw line
Penn State's minutes-weighted average height is 80.0 inches to Chattanooga's 75.9, a real gap for a team that wants to play through the paint.
That matters most at the line. Chattanooga rarely got there last season, with a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 27.8%, 344th. Its defense fouled freely, allowing an opponent free throw rate of 40.7%, 323rd.
Penn State's rim protection was a problem a year ago. Its block rate of 5.2% ranked 356th, which left little resistance for drivers. If the new frontcourt protects the basket, the size edge becomes the game.
Where things stand
Mike Rhoades enters his fourth season at Penn State. The Nittany Lions play an exhibition against St. Bonaventure in Buffalo, then open at home against Canisius on Nov. 2, so this game comes three days after their home opener.
Penn State's schedule lists tip at 6 p.m. ET on BTN at the Bryce Jordan Center. Nothing has surfaced on either team's health heading into the opener. Dan Earl's Mocs were picked fifth in the 11-team SoCon coaches' poll, and guard Tate Darner made the preseason all-conference team. No spread or total has been posted.
Where the money is on Chattanooga vs Penn State
On the Kalshi moneyline: Chattanooga: 50% of bets, 2% of the money; Penn State: 50% of bets, 98% of the money.
Key players
- Tate Darner (Chattanooga): Named to the preseason all-SoCon team for a program picked fifth of 11 in the coaches' poll.
Numbers that matter
| Chattanooga 3-point attempt rate (last season) | 50.6% | Ranked 13th nationally, a volume shooting identity the new roster may or may not keep. |
|---|---|---|
| Penn State opponent 3-point % (last season) | 38.8% | Ranked 363rd of 365, the weakness Chattanooga's style is built to exploit. |
| Penn State opponent eFG% (last season) | 58.4% | Last in Division I, the clearest sign of how much the defense needed rebuilding. |
| Penn State minutes-weighted height | 80.0 in. | Compares with 75.9 inches for Chattanooga, a size edge inside. |
| Chattanooga opponent free throw rate (last season) | 40.7% | Ranked 323rd, giving a bigger Penn State team a path to the line. |
Chattanooga vs Penn State: quick answers
When is Chattanooga vs Penn State?
Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.
Where is the money on Chattanooga vs Penn State?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Chattanooga: 50% of bets, 2% of the money; Penn State: 50% of bets, 98% of the money.