Chattanooga vs Elon prediction: Elon's rebuilt frontcourt gets a soft interior test from Chattanooga

Elon's bigs against an open paint

Elon's opener at Columbia introduced a new frontcourt. Josh Dalton, a Loyola Marymount transfer, scored a career-high 21 points on 8-of-13 shooting in his Phoenix debut. Center Hunter Harding added 15 points, 8 rebounds and 8 assists, so the offense can run through him at the elbow as well as the block.

Chattanooga's interior defense gives that pair room to work. Louisville made 63.6% of its two-pointers against the Mocs, 300th of 348 teams after one game. Chattanooga also blocked just 3.0% of opponents' two-point tries, 310th. Louisville is a far better team than Elon, but the Mocs showed little resistance at the rim. Elon grabbed 39.3% of its own misses at Columbia, 100th nationally, so Harding and Dalton could get second chances too.

Chattanooga lives behind the arc

The Mocs are built around the three. In the opener, 57.9% of their shots came from deep, 19th-highest in the country, and they made 36.4% of them. That continues a habit from last season, when Chattanooga ranked 13th in three-point attempt rate with a mostly different roster.

Elon's opener says little about how it will handle that. Columbia took only 15.8% of its shots from three, the lowest share in Division I. The more useful warning comes from last season: Elon's defense let opponents hit 35.9% from deep, 318th of 365. Only a few of those defenders remain, but if the new group gives up open looks, the Mocs can stay in the game from the perimeter.

Turnovers set the margin

Chattanooga's biggest problem at Louisville was ball security. The Mocs turned it over on 25.0% of their possessions, 306th nationally. That rate is turnovers per 100 possessions, and it explains much of the 35-56 halftime hole. Point guard Kobe McDowell-White handed out 7 assists, and the Mocs assisted on 72.0% of their made baskets, 31st. The passing is there. The mistakes need to stop.

Elon forced turnovers on 19.4% of Columbia's possessions, 158th. That's middle of the pack, but enough to punish a team that gives the ball away the way Chattanooga did in its opener. Elon's guards matter here as well. Raúl Villar, a Charlotte transfer, had 7 assists, and the Phoenix assisted on 66.7% of their made shots.

Two rosters starting over

These former Southern Conference rivals both rebuilt their rosters. Chattanooga brings back 22.9% of last season's minutes and lost leading scorer Jordan Frison (16.4 points per game) to Wichita State. Ten Mocs made their Division I debuts at Louisville. Elon returns 27.9% of its minutes after losing Chandler Cuthrell, who averaged 19.8 points last season. The Phoenix have 10 newcomers among 13 scholarship players.

That makes last season's numbers a weak guide. Elon finished last season ranked 228th in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), ahead of Chattanooga at 292nd. Elon's continuity runs through guard Bryson Cokley, a Preseason All-CAA second-team pick who averaged 12.3 points last season and scored 13 at Columbia.

The schedule also complicates the openers. Louisville ranks 17th in adjusted net efficiency and Columbia ranks 190th, so Chattanooga's 84 points allowed and Elon's 84 points scored came against very different opponents. Chattanooga did outplay Louisville after halftime. Both teams get 11 days of rest, and Elon gets its home debut.