Buffalo vs Pittsburgh prediction: Buffalo's rebuilt backcourt must replace its departed shooting at Pitt
Buffalo returns almost none of last season's sharpshooting team, and its new guards arrive as streaky shooters with an ACC opponent waiting on opening week.
- Two heavily rebuilt rosters feel each other out; Pitt has more continuity and home floor, while Buffalo leans on transfers.
- Buffalo's transfer guards, Dylan Ducommun and J.J. Starling, against a Pitt perimeter anchored by returners Damarco Minor and Brandin Cummings.
- No line is posted yet; Buffalo bringing back just 3.6% of last season's minutes makes its old numbers a weak guide.
A shooting team that left
Last season Buffalo could shoot. The Bulls made 38.4% of their threes, 13th in Division I, and their effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark that counts threes 1.5 times) ranked 27th. That offense helped George Halcovage III lift a program that went 4-27 into a 17-15 team.
Almost none of it is back. Buffalo returns 3.6% of last season's minutes and 1.8% of its points. Ryan Sabol, who scored 18.9 points a game and hit 40.3% from deep, is gone, along with most of the rotation.
The replacements bring usage more than accuracy. Dylan Ducommun (Northern Illinois), Drew Steffe (Southern Illinois) and J.J. Starling (Syracuse) each started every game they played last season, and none shot better than 29.9% from three. The Bulls' old offensive identity is a memory, not a baseline.
Pitt's portal makeover
Jeff Capel is also rebuilding, with 11 transfers, including Baye Ndongo, Jalil Bethea and Nait George. The Panthers have a sturdier spine, though, returning 42.5% of last season's minutes.
That matters because last season's Pitt team struggled. It went 13-20, ranked 339th in pace and made just 67.4% of its free throws, 340th nationally. Its schedule-adjusted numbers were kinder. Adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) placed Pitt 98th, against Buffalo's 197th. Those are last season's final ratings for rosters that have since been overhauled.
The returners who give Pitt continuity are guards. Brandin Cummings carried a 24.8% usage rate in 19 games, and Damarco Minor played 32.1 minutes a night as the steadying hand.
Where Buffalo can compete
Buffalo's newcomers look strongest up front. Jalen Pitre and Antoine Lorick III arrive together from Tennessee State. Pitre made 62.3% of his shots and pulled down 6.6 rebounds a game; Lorick blocked 1.4 shots a night.
That pairing could matter on the glass. Pitt grabbed 33.9% of its own misses last season, 83rd nationally, while Buffalo's defensive rebounding ranked 209th. If the Panthers keep crashing, Pitre's work on the boards becomes the Bulls' most important job.
Availability is the other question. As of September, Starling was awaiting a decision on his eligibility for a fifth season, and no update has surfaced since. Without him, more of the creation falls to Ducommun, whose 42.7% effective field goal percentage last season shows the risk.
What to watch
Tip is set for 7 p.m. at Petersen Events Center, on ACCNX. It is one of the Panthers' nine non-conference games inside city limits. Both teams play exhibitions before then, and those will be the first real look at either rotation.
- Starling's eligibility: a ruling changes Buffalo's guard depth.
- Three-point volume: last season's Bulls took threes at the 62nd-highest rate; watch whether the new guards keep firing.
- Pitt at the line: a 67.4% free-throw team needs Minor, an 88.3% shooter, to handle the ball late in a close game.
Where the money is on Buffalo vs Pittsburgh
On the Kalshi moneyline: Buffalo: 50% of bets, 10% of the money; Pittsburgh: 50% of bets, 90% of the money.
Key players
- J.J. Starling (Buffalo): Scored 10.9 points a game at Syracuse last season but shot 54.8% at the line, and his fifth-year eligibility was pending as of September.
- Dylan Ducommun (Buffalo): Carried a 24% usage rate at Northern Illinois last season while shooting 28.9% from three.
- Jalen Pitre (Buffalo): Shot 62.3% from the field and averaged 6.6 rebounds at Tennessee State last season.
- Antoine Lorick III (Buffalo): Averaged 9.8 points and 1.4 blocks at Tennessee State last season.
- Brandin Cummings (Pittsburgh): Averaged 12.5 points with a 24.8% usage rate in 19 games last season.
- Damarco Minor (Pittsburgh): Played 32.1 minutes a game last season and made 88.3% of his free throws.
- Omari Witherspoon (Pittsburgh): Started 25 games last season but posted an offensive rating of 89.
Numbers that matter
| Buffalo returning minutes | 3.6% | Nearly the entire rotation from last season's 17-15 team is gone, so its old stats say little. |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo 3-point % last season | 38.4% | The 13th-best mark in Division I, produced mostly by players no longer on the roster. |
| Pitt returning minutes | 42.5% | Far more continuity than Buffalo, even with 11 transfers arriving. |
| Pitt free throw % last season | 67.4% | Ranked 340th, a weakness that would surface in a tight finish. |
| Pitt adjusted net rank last season | 98th | Better than Buffalo's 197th despite a 13-20 record, though both rosters have changed. |
Buffalo vs Pittsburgh: quick answers
When is Buffalo vs Pittsburgh?
Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.
Where is the money on Buffalo vs Pittsburgh?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Buffalo: 50% of bets, 10% of the money; Pittsburgh: 50% of bets, 90% of the money.