Bryant vs Quinnipiac prediction: Quinnipiac's rebuilt roster debuts against Bryant's three-point habit

A gap built by departed players

Last season these programs lived on different floors. Quinnipiac went 19-13. Bryant went 9-22. The opening night of the inaugural America East–Metro Challenge is the first look at what Tom Pecora has rebuilt in his fourth season, and at whether Bryant has closed any of the distance.

The gap was wide. By adjusted net efficiency (points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), Bryant finished last season at -22.9, 352nd of 365. Quinnipiac finished at -4.4, 215th.

The catch is that Quinnipiac brings back only 25.8% of last season's minutes. Amarri Monroe (15.6 points per game) and Jaden Zimmerman (15.1) are gone, along with Asim Jones, who shot 46.4% from three. Keith McKnight is the returner who matters: he scored 11.0 points a game off the bench last season and was efficient doing it. The rest of the rotation is transfers, among them guard Tayeshawn Cunningham-Pemberton from Assumption and forwards Holden Pierre-Louis and Nas Hart.

Bryant enters Jamion Christian's second season picked fifth in the America East preseason poll. Bryant took fifth in the America East preseason poll, with Vermont picked first.

Bryant lets it fly

Bryant's identity last season was volume from deep without accuracy. Threes made up 47.8% of its shots, the 27th-highest share in the country. It made just 30.4% of them, 340th.

That sets up the most interesting style question in this game. Quinnipiac's defense last season gave up a lot of three-point attempts, 304th in opponent attempt rate, but it shut down the paint, holding opponents to 47.1% on twos (33rd). If the new Bobcats keep that shape, Bryant gets the shots it wants and has to make them. Neither team shot well last season, so the opener could be decided by whichever side has a hot night from the perimeter.

Possessions Bryant can't afford to lose

Bryant's other weakness was ball security. It turned the ball over 20.1 times per 100 possessions last season, 348th nationally. Quinnipiac's defense was built to punish exactly that and ranked 68th in steal rate.

The Bobcats also hunted second chances, grabbing 34.4% of their own misses (70th). The returners and transfers have to show they can do the same work. Pierre-Louis averaged 1.2 blocks in 15.6 minutes at Cleveland State, and his rim protection would help replace the frontcourt Quinnipiac lost.

Tempo and loose ends

Bryant played slowly last season, 319th in pace, while Quinnipiac ran at a mid-pack 111th. Expect Christian to try to drag this into a half-court game.

Some details are still unsettled. Quinnipiac's schedule lists a 7 p.m. tip, while other listings show the time as to be determined. An undated campus report said Monroe was granted an injunction in his bid for a fifth year of eligibility and quoted Pecora on a player named Jones: "If he's eligible, he's back." The report doesn't tie either player to this season's roster, and Quinnipiac hasn't confirmed anything. Hart, a La Salle transfer, has three years of eligibility remaining.