Bradley vs Coppin State prediction: Bradley's rebuilt Braves get a real test from Coppin State in St. Pete

A new Bradley, an old gap

Bradley will put a nearly new team on a neutral floor at the Showdown in St. Pete, the early-season event at Eckerd College's McArthur Center. Brian Wardle, entering his 12th season, added 10 newcomers to a roster with five returning players. Those holdovers played just 13.0% of last season's minutes, so last season's 21-13 record says more about the program than about this team.

The program gap is still wide. Bradley finished last season 120th of 365 in adjusted net efficiency, which measures points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents. Coppin State finished 363rd. The Eagles went 7-24 and were barred from both the NCAA Tournament and the MEAC tournament because of Academic Progress Rate penalties. They return 51.9% of their minutes, more continuity than Bradley, but those minutes come from a team that ranked 363rd in offensive efficiency.

Where the turnovers come from

This is the matchup most likely to decide the game. Last season Coppin State turned it over on 22.3% of its possessions, 361st in the country. Bradley's defense forced turnovers at a 19.5% rate, 52nd. Even with a new roster, the Braves' guards have shown early that they jump passing lanes: Dietrich Richardson had five steals in the opener against Monmouth.

Bradley's own ball security was a strength last season, when its turnover rate ranked 18th. The guards who ran that offense are gone, so ball security is the habit Wardle most needs his newcomers to keep. After an 88-75 exhibition loss to Saint Louis, he said, "We are not ready yet for real games." The Braves will have 10 days off before tip to work on it.

Open looks for the Braves' shooters

Coppin State's perimeter defense ranked 360th last season, allowing opponents to shoot 37.8% from three. Opponents also took plenty of threes against the Eagles. That suits Trevon Payton, a transfer from Arkansas-Pine Bluff who made 47.1% of 140 three-point attempts last season. He replaces some of the shooting Bradley lost when Alex Huibregtse, who made 103 threes last season, left the program.

The Eagles also struggled on the defensive glass, ranking 339th in defensive rebound rate. Offensive rebounding was a weakness for Bradley last season, so Coppin State's poor rebounding may not cost it as much against the Braves as it did against other teams.

Reading the opener carefully

Bradley opened with an 85-41 win over Monmouth. The rankings built on that game, including a defensive efficiency inside the national top 10, come from a single game against a non-Division I opponent, so treat them as noise. The more useful signal is who played: Ben Thornbrue scored 17 off the bench, and Josh Ibukunoluwa, who played only sparing minutes at High Point last season, added 14.

Coppin State's opener at Virginia Tech is scheduled for Nov 3, and no result has been found yet. Its first result will be the earliest look at whether Larry Stewart's team has improved its ball security. No injury or eligibility news has surfaced for either team.

What to watch

• Coppin State's turnover count in the first 10 minutes, the clearest sign of whether the Eagles can keep the game close.
• How many threes Payton gets up against a defense that gave up a lot of them last season.
• Whether Wardle sticks with the Thornbrue-led bench that scored freely in the opener.