Binghamton vs Saint Peter's prediction: Bryson Wilson's return to face Binghamton tests two rebuilt programs

A rebuild against a revival

Binghamton spent last season near the bottom of Division I and spent the offseason convincing its league it won't stay there. Saint Peter's spent its summer rebuilding almost from scratch. Thursday night at the Yanitelli Center is an early look at which version of each program is real.

The Bearcats went 8-23 and finished last season 360th of 365 in adjusted net efficiency (points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). America East coaches still picked them third, with 45 points and a first-place vote. "It's nice to be placed higher than ever before," coach Levell Sanders said. Jeremiah Quigley, an all-conference player last season, and Demetrius Lilley, whose season was cut short by an injury in December, were the league's two preseason all-conference picks from Binghamton.

Saint Peter's went 17-12 but returns just 26.5% of last season's minutes. Brent Bland, its leading scorer at 13.9 points a game, left for Miami. Bashir Mason coached the Peacocks last season, his fourth; his staff for this season hasn't been publicly confirmed. That makes every team number below a description of a system, not of these players.

Where possessions get decided

If the Peacocks' defensive identity carries over, Binghamton's ball handlers are in for a long night. Saint Peter's forced turnovers on 21.0% of opponent possessions last season, 18th in the country, and its steal rate ranked seventh.

Binghamton was poorly built to handle that. The Bearcats turned it over on 18.6% of their possessions, 298th nationally, and their own defense rarely took the ball back.

The glass told the same story. Saint Peter's grabbed 37.2% of its own misses, 16th in the country. Binghamton was solid on its defensive boards, 105th, so that is the one area where the visitors held up last season.

Binghamton's road to the line

The clearest edge Binghamton carried last season came at the free-throw line. The Bearcats drew a free throw rate (free throws attempted per field goal attempt) of 41.7%, 32nd in the nation, and made 74.5% of them.

Saint Peter's aggressive, ball-hunting defense came with a cost. Opponents posted a free throw rate of 46.1% against the Peacocks, 358th nationally. Hand-checking and reaching are how a defense forces that many turnovers, and they are also how it puts a team like Binghamton in the bonus early. Whichever side wins that trade probably wins the game.

Wilson faces his old team

The most interesting player on the floor may be Bryson Wilson. He started 22 games for Binghamton last season and averaged 9.9 points, and now he is with Saint Peter's. He knows the Bearcats' returning core better than any scout could.

He joins Bryce Eaton, the Peacocks' top returner. Eaton carried a 25.5% usage rate last season, meaning he finished a quarter of his team's possessions while on the floor, but his effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) was just 43.9%. Shaedon Simpson was the more efficient returner in limited minutes, with an offensive rating of 109.5.

Shooting was the Peacocks' problem last season. Their effective field goal percentage of 47.4% ranked 342nd, and new faces have to fix that.

A slow game at the Yanitelli Center

Neither team pushed the ball last season. Binghamton averaged 64.6 possessions per 40 minutes, 319th nationally, and Saint Peter's was barely quicker at 306th. Two half-court teams with shaky shooting point toward a low-possession game where every turnover and every trip to the line counts. Binghamton opens its season on Nov. 2 at Northwestern, so this trip to Jersey City would be its second game.

What to watch - Binghamton's turnover count against Saint Peter's pressure in the first 10 minutes - How quickly the Peacocks reach foul trouble - Wilson's minutes and shot volume against his former team