Bethune-Cookman vs Texas Tech prediction: Texas Tech hunts for new scorers as Bethune-Cookman visits Lubbock
With JT Toppin's knee on no timetable and last season's backcourt engine gone, the Red Raiders host a SWAC favorite built to get to the line.
- Texas Tech's talent edge should control this, but a reshaped rotation and Bethune-Cookman's free-throw hunting could keep it messier than last meeting's blowout.
- Texas Tech's three-point volume against a Bethune-Cookman defense whose opponents took 33.8% of their shots from three last season.
- No spread or total is posted yet. Last season's final adjusted net ratings ranked Texas Tech 20th and Bethune-Cookman 269th.
Who scores for Texas Tech now
Texas Tech finished last season 20th nationally in adjusted net efficiency (points scored minus allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). The two players most responsible for that may not be on the floor in Lubbock on Nov. 5.
JT Toppin averaged 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds last season before tearing his ACL at Arizona State in February. Grant McCasland said in summer radio comments that Toppin wouldn't be ready near the start of the season, and his latest public word put no timetable on the return: "I'm not rushing it." Christian Anderson, who averaged 18.5 points and 7.2 assists, is not on this season's roster. Sharpshooter Donovan Atwell is listed among last season's departures in the roster data, though one report had him officially returning.
The players on this roster logged 61.5% of last season's minutes, and that figure includes Toppin. Jaylen Petty is the steadiest returner: he shot 37.5% from three with an offensive rating of 121.1 (points produced per 100 possessions). LeJuan Watts averaged 11.8 points on a heavy 25% usage rate but needs better efficiency in a bigger role. Darrion Williams has recommitted, McCasland credits freshman Dakari Spear with a "huge jump," and a final eligibility ruling for senior forward Jamichael Stillwell hasn't been confirmed.
The three-point question
Last season Texas Tech lived beyond the arc, taking 47.5% of its shots from three and making 39.1% of them, seventh in the country. Much of that volume came from guards who are gone or uncertain, so the shot profile may shift.
Bethune-Cookman's defense did not take that shot away. Its opponents attempted threes on 33.8% of their shots last season, one of the higher rates in Division I (339th of 365). Inside the arc, they blocked 11.2% of opponents' two-point tries. If the Red Raiders' new perimeter group can't find clean looks early, this becomes a grind around the rim.
Where Bethune-Cookman can steal possessions
The Wildcats' biggest weakness last season was ball security. They turned it over on 19.4% of possessions, 332nd nationally. Texas Tech didn't force many turnovers last season, though: its forced turnover rate ranked 322nd, so the visitors may get more clean trips than their numbers suggest.
Bethune-Cookman's real weapon is the foul line. Its free throw rate (free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt) was 41.1%, 37th in the country, but it made only 69.0% of those tries. Texas Tech sat at the other extreme, ranking 349th in getting to the line itself. The Wildcats also played faster, at 70.4 possessions per 40 minutes, so expect them to try to speed up a home team still sorting out its rotation.
A SWAC favorite's November test
Reggie Theus, now in his sixth season, guided Bethune-Cookman to its first regular-season title under him last season, finishing 17-15 overall and 14-4 in the SWAC. The Wildcats were picked first in the league's preseason poll with 10 first-place votes. Their adjusted net rating still ranked 269th at the end of last season, a reminder of the gap between league and national standing.
Texas Tech hosts Jackson State on Nov. 2, so this is its second game in four days. The Red Raiders won the last meeting 94-61 in Lubbock in 2024, when Kerwin Walton scored 21 and Toppin added 19. Bethune-Cookman's own availability picture hasn't surfaced; newcomer Melian Martinez arrived from Louisiana Tech, while Arterio Morris left for Tennessee State.
Where the money is on Bethune-Cookman vs Texas Tech
On the Kalshi moneyline: Bethune-Cookman: 55% of bets, 1% of the money; Texas Tech: 46% of bets, 99% of the money.
Key players
- JT Toppin (Texas Tech): Averaged 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds last season before a torn ACL, and McCasland has set no timetable for his return.
- Jaylen Petty (Texas Tech): Shot 37.5% from three last season with a team-friendly 121.1 offensive rating in 30.4 minutes a game.
- LeJuan Watts (Texas Tech): Averaged 11.8 points and 6.0 rebounds last season on a 25% usage rate, the heaviest load among healthy returners.
- Tyeree Bryan (Texas Tech): Made 13 starts last season but shot just 28.6% from three, so his role could grow by necessity.
Numbers that matter
| Texas Tech 3-point %, last season | 39.1% | Seventh nationally, but much of that shooting came from guards who are gone or uncertain. |
|---|---|---|
| B-CU opponent 3PA rate, last season | 33.8% | The Wildcats kept opponents off the arc, directly challenging Texas Tech's preferred shot. |
| B-CU turnover rate, last season | 19.4% | Ranked 332nd, though Texas Tech forced few turnovers itself. |
| B-CU free throw rate, last season | 41.1% | Ranked 37th, the visitors' clearest path to staying close. |
| Texas Tech returning minutes | 61.5% | That share includes Toppin, who has no return timetable. |
Bethune-Cookman vs Texas Tech: quick answers
When is Bethune-Cookman vs Texas Tech?
Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.
Where is the money on Bethune-Cookman vs Texas Tech?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Bethune-Cookman: 55% of bets, 1% of the money; Texas Tech: 46% of bets, 99% of the money.