Bellarmine vs Indiana prediction: Markus Burton fronts a rebuilt Indiana against sharpshooting Bellarmine
Indiana returns almost none of last season's minutes, and a November date with Bellarmine is a first look at whether a transfer-built roster can punish a defense that left the arc wide open.
- Expect Indiana's new transfers to settle in against a Bellarmine defense that ranked near the bottom of Division I last season, though Bellarmine's shooters can stay competitive.
- Indiana's three-point volume against a Bellarmine defense that allowed the most accurate outside shooting in the country last season.
- No spread or total is posted, and Indiana lists this as an exhibition. Both teams played at a 65.9-possession pace last season.
A roster built from scratch
Darian DeVries enters his second year at Indiana with a nearly new team. Players on this season's roster accounted for just 17.2% of Indiana's minutes last season. That makes last season's 18-14 Indiana a weak guide to what takes the floor in Bloomington.
The new team runs through Markus Burton, the Notre Dame transfer expected to start at point guard. He averaged 18.5 points in 10 games before his season ended, with a 31.3% usage rate (the share of team possessions he finished while on the floor). He was fully cleared for basketball activities as of July 6, and an Oct. 8 report described no new setback.
Around him sit Bryce Lindsay from Villanova, Jaeden Mustaf from Georgia Tech, Aiden Sherrell from Alabama and Samet Yigitoglu from SMU. Sam Alexis, the leading returner, carries a question mark: August roster coverage flagged news about him whose details aren't confirmed here.
Bellarmine can still shoot
Bellarmine went 13-19 last season, but the offense was never the problem. Its effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes as 1.5 times a two) was 59.9%, sixth in Division I. It made 38.2% from three, 15th nationally.
The Knights also made 79.2% of their free throws, fourth in the country, so they convert the points they earn. How much of that shooting carries over is unclear: the roster lists seven freshmen, and how many of last season's minutes return is unknown. No Bellarmine availability news has surfaced.
The open three-point line
The defense is where Bellarmine fell apart last season. Opponents took 50.4% of their shots from three against the Knights, the fourth-highest share in Division I. They made 39.7% of them, which ranked 365th of 365.
That matches how Indiana shot last season. Indiana took 50.5% of its shots from deep last season, 15th-most nationally. Lindsay is the new volume shooter, with 78 made threes at Villanova. If Bellarmine's defense is anything like last season's, Indiana should get open looks all night.
Glass, size and stakes
Bellarmine rarely got second chances last season. Its offensive rebound rate (the share of its own misses it recovered) was 23.1%, 355th nationally. Indiana's frontcourt adds Sherrell, who blocked 2.2 shots a game at Alabama, and Yigitoglu, who pulled 7.8 rebounds a game at SMU. Indiana's minutes-weighted average height is 79.2 inches, against 77.6 for Bellarmine.
Both teams played at a deliberate 65.9 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 275th in the country. Fewer possessions usually means a lower-scoring game and fewer chances for a talent gap to show.
The format is unsettled. Indiana's game notes call this Exhibition 2, while other schedules list it as a regular November game. The last meeting in the record was a 73-49 Indiana win in a 2016 exhibition at Assembly Hall.
Where the money is on Bellarmine vs Indiana
On the Kalshi moneyline: Bellarmine: 22% of bets, 1% of the money; Indiana: 78% of bets, 99% of the money.
Key players
- Markus Burton (Indiana): Averaged 18.5 points and 3.7 assists in 10 games at Notre Dame last season before it was cut short.
- Bryce Lindsay (Indiana): Made 78 threes at 35.6% for Villanova last season, the volume shooter in Indiana's three-heavy system.
- Aiden Sherrell (Indiana): Blocked 2.2 shots a game at Alabama last season with a 131.6 offensive rating.
- Samet Yigitoglu (Indiana): Started all 33 games at SMU last season, averaging 10.6 points and 7.8 rebounds on 63% shooting.
Numbers that matter
| Indiana returning minutes | 17.2% | Almost none of last season's Indiana minutes return, so its 2025-26 team numbers say little about this group. |
|---|---|---|
| Bellarmine opponent 3-point % | 39.7% | Last season's mark ranked 365th of 365, the worst perimeter defense in Division I. |
| Indiana 3-point attempt rate | 50.5% | Indiana's share of shots from three last season ranked 15th-most nationally. |
| Bellarmine effective FG% | 59.9% | Bellarmine's shooting ranked sixth in Division I last season, its best path to keeping this close. |
| Bellarmine offensive rebound % | 23.1% | Ranked 355th last season, so the Knights rarely extend possessions after misses. |
Bellarmine vs Indiana: quick answers
When is Bellarmine vs Indiana?
Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.
Where is the money on Bellarmine vs Indiana?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Bellarmine: 22% of bets, 1% of the money; Indiana: 78% of bets, 99% of the money.