Bellarmine Knights vs Miami (OH) RedHawks prediction: Bellarmine's turnover habit could turn Miami's home opener into a rout

Possessions Bellarmine keeps handing over

Miami opens its home schedule at Millett Hall coming off a 32-2 season and riding 34 straight regular-season wins. Bellarmine arrives at the end of a road trip that has already cost it two lopsided losses, at Vanderbilt and Indiana. The plainest path to a Miami blowout runs through the Knights' ball security.

Bellarmine has turned the ball over on 25.5% of its possessions, 341st of 363 Division I teams. That is a sharp break from last season, when the Knights ranked 90th in turnover rate. Miami's guards look ready to take advantage. In the opener at James Madison, Ipsaro had four steals and Skaljac added three, and the RedHawks' steal rate ranked 103rd nationally after one game. Every live-ball turnover is a chance for an easy run-out against a defense that ranks 353rd in defensive efficiency.

Nothing stops shots near the rim

Bellarmine's defense was the weak point last season, and it has gotten worse. Opponents have made 70.3% of their two-point shots against the Knights, 354th in the country. Their block rate, the share of opponent two-point tries they swat, sits at 1.6%, 361st. Last season's final adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) ranked dead last of 365.

That invites Miami's forwards to go straight at the basket. Antwone Woolfolk made 3 of 4 shots and grabbed 10 rebounds at JMU, and Kyle Waltz added two blocks off the bench. Last season Miami ranked 2nd nationally in two-point percentage. Most of that roster has turned over, but the interior matchup still tilts heavily toward the RedHawks.

Two rebuilds, different starting points

Both programs return a little under half of last season's minutes, at 48.5% for Miami and 48.4% for Bellarmine, so last season's team numbers only go so far. What returns matters more.

Miami kept the guards who were picked to lead it. Skaljac and Ipsaro were both named Preseason All-MAC First Team, and the RedHawks were picked first in the MAC coaches poll. Ipsaro scored 15 in his first game back from the ACL tear he suffered last December. Skaljac led with 19, and Milwaukee transfer Stevie Elam added 13 off the bench as Miami rallied from a first-half deficit. Miami listed no injuries as of Nov. 5.

Bellarmine lost its top two scorers, including Jack Karasinski, who averaged 21.7 points last season and is now at Northwestern. The returning shooters have gone cold. Kenyon Goodin has missed all six of his threes after hitting 41.8% last season, and Donald is 2 of 11 from deep. Center Jacob Wassler has been the exception, making 4 of 7 threes. Bellarmine needs that shooting to come back quickly to stay within range.

Where the number sits

Miami is favored by 20.5, and the line and the total of 159.5 have held since our feed first recorded them. Bellarmine split its first two games against the spread: it lost by 46 at Vanderbilt as a 36-point underdog, then covered as a 30.25-point underdog in a 23-point loss at Indiana.

The first half is where the Knights have collapsed. They have averaged 21.5 first-half points, 350th nationally, and trailed Indiana 26-50 at the break. Tempo adds a wrinkle for the total. Miami played at 74.5 possessions per 40 minutes in its opener, 93rd in the country, while Bellarmine has played at 68.8, 256th. Miami also has five days of rest, compared with two for a Bellarmine team playing its third road game in six days. Miami leads the series 2-1, and the last meeting in 2022 was a four-point game. Nothing about this season's version points to another one.