Alcorn State vs Tarleton State prediction: Alcorn State's turnover habit walks into Tarleton State's rebuilt pressure

Twenty-six giveaways at Ole Miss

Alcorn State's season began with a 99-58 loss at Ole Miss, and the ball security was the ugliest part. Ole Miss forced 26 turnovers. That left the Braves with a turnover rate (giveaways per 100 possessions) of 34.7%, last among 348 Division I teams with a game played.

The habit isn't new to the program, even if the players are. Last season's Alcorn team ranked 351st of 365 in turnover rate. This roster returns none of last season's minutes, so that history belongs to a different group. Still, the opener did nothing to suggest the problem left with them.

Tarleton State forced turnovers on 24.0% of possessions in its 86-60 opening win over Cameron, 86th nationally. Leroy Kelly IV and Brett Freeman each had three steals. Last season's Texans ranked 2nd in the country in forcing turnovers under Billy Gillispie. That was a different coach and a different roster: Eric Haut is in his first year, and only 16.4% of last season's minutes are back. Kelly is one of the holdovers who knows how to jump a passing lane.

Threes against a closed perimeter

Alcorn hunts the three. The Braves took 48.1% of their shots from deep at Ole Miss, 75th most in the country, and made 40.0% of them. Inside the arc was another story: they hit just 33.3% of their twos, 330th nationally.

Calvin Sirmans, a Stetson transfer, carried the offense with 20 points on 4-of-5 shooting from three. His 35.1% usage rate means more than a third of Alcorn's possessions ended with him while he was on the floor. Bobby Cannon, a junior out of Hutchinson CC, added 14 off the bench.

Tarleton's opening defense invited threes and then contested them. Cameron took 53.7% of its shots from deep and made only 19.4%, 39th best in the country. One game against Cameron is a thin measuring stick next to Alcorn's trip to Oxford, but it sets up the key question: can Sirmans find clean looks against a defense that let Cameron shoot but not score?

Two rebuilt rosters, one track record

Neither bench looks much like it did a year ago. Tarleton's 16-man roster has 12 newcomers and four returners, and the program says it carries the most portal additions of its seven Division I seasons. Alcorn's roster has no overlap with last season's under second-year coach Jake Morton. The SWAC's coaches and sports information directors picked the Braves 10th.

That turnover makes last season's team numbers a weak guide. The opener gave a first look at who carries Tarleton. Jac Mani scored 17 without missing a shot. Kelly filled the box with 13 points, 10 rebounds and five assists, and New Orleans transfer TJ Cope added 13 points and eight rebounds.

Alcorn's most intriguing newcomer is 7-foot-1 center Christian Richardson from Omaha, who could help on a team that struggled to score inside. The Texans have won the last six meetings in the series and their last eight home games against Alcorn in Stephenville.

What to watch

- Alcorn's first ten minutes with the ball. A clean start would be the clearest sign that the Ole Miss game was the opponent, not the team. - Tempo. Both teams played fast in their openers, Alcorn at 75 possessions per 40 minutes and Tarleton at 75.5. More trips magnify every turnover. Alcorn is scheduled to play Howard and visit Murray State before this game. Tarleton is scheduled to visit San Diego and host UT Dallas. Each team's form will have more than one data point by tipoff. - The market. No line has been posted yet. Alcorn's only total of the season, 148.5 at Ole Miss, went over.