Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks prediction: Utah's frozen jump shot runs into Dallas's stingiest perimeter defense

A cold team, a locked perimeter

Utah arrives in Dallas for its first NBA Cup game carrying a six-game losing streak and a 1-7 record. The problem is not effort. It is the ball refusing to go in.

The Jazz score 102.4 points per 100 possessions, 29th in the league. Their effective field goal percentage, which weights threes at 1.5 times a two, sits at 49.4%, 28th. From deep they are hitting 31.4%, 27th.

That is a bad matchup for this building. Dallas opponents are shooting 29.9% from three, the best mark in the NBA. Will Hardy said this week that the shooting will turn and that his team is better than it was two weeks ago. The Mavericks' perimeter defense is the wrong place to wait for that turn.

Rookie Darryn Peterson, the No. 2 pick, has started every game but is shooting 35.4% from the field. If he and the Jazz wings keep missing, Utah has little margin anywhere else.

Flagg and Irving carry Dallas

Cooper Flagg, last season's Rookie of the Year, has become the engine of Dusty May's first Dallas team. He is averaging 24.3 points and 6.3 assists, plus 2.1 steals that fuel the break.

Kyrie Irving gives Dallas a second creator who can punish a defense from outside. He is scoring 22.7 a night on 38.2% from three. May rested him on Nov. 2 after five games in seven days, and he answered with 29 points in Wednesday's one-point loss at San Antonio.

Utah's counter is George, who is averaging 22.0 points and just scored 39 in an overtime loss at New Orleans. Lauri Markkanen adds 17.1 a game. The Jazz are thin up front without Jaren Jackson Jr., out with a torn MCL, and Jusuf Nurkic, sidelined by a foot injury. That matters against Daniel Gafford, who is finishing 67.4% of his shots.

Where Utah can find extra possessions

The Jazz do have a lever. Dallas rebounds just 67.9% of opponents' misses, 29th in the league. Utah, meanwhile, is strong on the defensive glass, grabbing 76.9% of available rebounds, 3rd, though its offensive rebounding is only middling at 26.8%, 17th. A missed Jazz jumper is not always a dead possession tonight.

Tempo helps too. Utah plays at the league's 4th-fastest pace, and more possessions means more chances for a cold team to run into a hot stretch. The Jazz also posted their second 40-point quarter of the season in New Orleans.

The flip side is fouling. Utah's opponents shoot free throws at a 35.5% rate relative to field goal attempts, 28th. Dallas rarely gets to the line, 26th in free throw rate, so one of those tendencies has to yield.

Bodies, rotation and the Cup

Dallas is 1-0 in Group A after beating Houston 116-111, so a win here sets up a strong position in the group. Sergio de Larrea is out with a knee strain. Santi Aldama is probable and could make his Mavericks debut after missing the first eight games.

Max Christie is probable after sitting Wednesday with a hip issue, though Friday's report still listed him day-to-day. The status of Dereck Lively II and Tarik Biberovic remains unsettled, with conflicting reports as of Nov. 5. Naji Marshall is working back from an illness, and Dallas hasn't confirmed whether he plays.

These teams split four meetings last season, with Dallas winning both games at home, 144-122 and 138-120. Rosters have changed enough that those scores mean little: Anthony Davis is now in Washington, and Utah added Jackson, Nurkic and Peterson.

What the market sees

Dallas is a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 227, and neither number has moved since our feed first saw the game. The Mavericks are 5-3 against the spread, including a cover as 12.5-point underdogs in San Antonio. Utah is 1-7 ATS.

The totals lean one way. Dallas games have gone under six times in eight, and Utah's five times. A Jazz team ranked 29th in offense, facing the league's best 3-point defense, gives the under a real case unless Utah's pace turns this into a track meet.