Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans prediction: Zion's paint assault tests a Wolves defense still elite without Edwards
New Orleans wants the rim and the free throw line. Minnesota, missing its star, has kept winning by guarding the rim and the arc.
| Spread | Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 230.5 |
- Expect a fast game: the Pelicans attack the rim and the line, while Minnesota leans on a defense ranked 3rd in efficiency.
- Zion Williamson against Rudy Gobert in the paint, with Yves Missi out for New Orleans and no backup big of his size.
- Minnesota is a 4.5-point favorite, down from 5.5 when our feed first saw the game; the Wolves are 8-1 against the spread.
Zion goes where the points are
Minnesota has lost Anthony Edwards until at least December and kept winning anyway, mostly by guarding people. Friday night's NBA Cup group game in New Orleans puts that defense against the league's most paint-heavy offense, on a Pelicans team that has won four straight.
New Orleans scores 62.5 points in the paint per game, the most in the NBA, and Zion Williamson is the engine. He is shooting 60.8% from the field. Minnesota is built to absorb that pressure: opponents make just 51.8% of their twos against the Wolves, 8th-best in the league.
The paint total tells a softer story. The Wolves allow 48.9 paint points per game, 22nd of 30, so teams do reach the rim even if they don't finish well there. Gobert is the hinge. The Pelicans are thinner up front with Yves Missi out with a left knee bruise, which puts more on Derik Queen off the bench.
The free throw gap
This is the quiet edge for New Orleans. The Pelicans rank 3rd in free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt), and they convert 82.4% of their tries, 2nd in the league.
Minnesota is the opposite. The Wolves shoot 63.4% at the line, 30th of 30. Gobert struggles there, so a Pelicans team that gets fouled on drives has a lever to pull late. In a game priced around 4.5 points, the line could decide the margin.
Minnesota without Edwards
Edwards had arthroscopic surgery on his right knee and carries an estimated return of Dec. 21. Donte DiVincenzo is also out after Achilles surgery. Terrence Shannon Jr. is questionable with a left hip bruise after sitting out Wednesday's game at Houston, and Jaylen Clark would absorb his minutes if he sits.
LaMelo Ball and Jonathan Kuminga have carried the scoring load. Ball is averaging 17.2 points, and Kuminga is hitting 46.3% of his threes. Jaden McDaniels and Ayo Dosunmu round out a balanced attack, but the defense is what travels. Minnesota ranks 3rd in defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) and 2nd in net efficiency. The Wolves won 117-107 at Houston on Wednesday as an underdog.
Speed against shot quality
New Orleans plays at the fastest pace in the league and ranks 2nd in fast-break scoring. The shooting doesn't match the tempo. The Pelicans take threes at the lowest rate of any team and make just 31.7% of them, 26th in the league.
Minnesota shoots 38.0% from deep, 6th-best, but New Orleans defends the arc well. Where the Pelicans give ground is inside: opponents make 60.4% of their twos against them, 29th of 30. That suits a Wolves team that ranks 6th in paint scoring.
The Pelicans also lead the league in steal rate, and Williamson averages 2.6 steals himself. Minnesota's turnover rate ranks 9th, so the Wolves should be able to keep that transition game in check.
What the market is saying
Minnesota was 5.5 when our feed first saw the game and now sits at 4.5, with the move going toward New Orleans. The total has climbed from 228.5 to 230.5.
Both teams have rewarded backers. The Wolves are 8-1 against the spread, and the Pelicans are 6-2 with overs in six of eight games. Minnesota won three of four meetings last season, including a 149-142 shootout in New Orleans.
- Whether Shannon plays and how Minnesota fills the wing minutes
- Pelicans free throw attempts against a Wolves team that struggles at the line
- Gobert's minutes against Williamson and Queen
Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans line movement and odds
| Book | Timberwolves ML | Pelicans ML | Timberwolves spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -165 | +135 | -3.5 (-110) | o230.5 (-118) |
| BetRivers | -175 | +138 | -3.5 (-114) | o230.5 (-112) |
| DraftKings | -166 | +140 | -3.5 (-110) | o230.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | -165 | +140 | -3.5 (-110) | o230.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | -165 | +135 | -3.5 (-110) | o230.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -164 | +138 | -3.5 (-110) | o230.5 (-114) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -175 | +145 | -3.5 (-110) | o230.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | -170 | +143 | -3.5 (-110) | o230.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans
On the Kalshi moneyline: Minnesota Timberwolves: 75% of bets, 79% of the money; New Orleans Pelicans: 25% of bets, 21% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5: 73% of bets, 42% of the money; New Orleans Pelicans +3.5: 27% of bets, 58% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 231.5: 53% of bets, 92% of the money; Under 231.5: 47% of bets, 8% of the money.
Key players
- LaMelo Ball (Minnesota Timberwolves): Averaging 17.2 points and 5.9 assists this season with 30 threes on 38.0% shooting.
- Jonathan Kuminga (Minnesota Timberwolves): Hitting 46.3% of his threes this season on 41 attempts while adding 1.2 steals.
- Jaden McDaniels (Minnesota Timberwolves): Scoring 16.4 points per game on 52.5% shooting this season in 33.3 minutes.
- Rudy Gobert (Minnesota Timberwolves): Pulling down 11.9 rebounds per game this season, the anchor against New Orleans' paint attack.
- Zion Williamson (New Orleans Pelicans): Averaging 21.5 points on 60.8% shooting this season, plus 2.6 steals.
- Saddiq Bey (New Orleans Pelicans): Scoring 16.4 points per game off the bench this season with a 59.6% effective field goal percentage.
- Trey Murphy III (New Orleans Pelicans): Probable with a knee injury after averaging 14.9 points and shooting 38.5% from three this season.
- Derik Queen (New Orleans Pelicans): Averaging 13.4 points and 7.9 rebounds off the bench this season, with more weight on him while Missi is out.
Numbers that matter
| Pelicans paint points per game | 62.5 | The most in the NBA, aimed at a Wolves defense that allows 48.9 per game in the paint. |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves free throw percentage | 63.4% | Ranks 30th of 30, a liability against a Pelicans team that shoots 82.4% at the line. |
| Wolves defensive efficiency | 103.1 | Points allowed per 100 possessions, 3rd in the league despite playing without Edwards. |
| Spread | -4.5 | Minnesota's current line, down from 5.5 when our feed first recorded the game. |
| Pelicans 3-point attempt rate | 32.1% | The lowest in the league; New Orleans lives inside rather than behind the arc. |
Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans: quick answers
Who is favored in Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans?
Minnesota Timberwolves is favored by 3.5 points (Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5).
What is the over/under for Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans?
The total is 230.5 points.
When is Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans?
Yes: Minnesota Timberwolves opened -5.5 and is now -3.5, and the total moved from 229.5 to 230.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Minnesota Timberwolves: 75% of bets, 79% of the money; New Orleans Pelicans: 25% of bets, 21% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5: 73% of bets, 42% of the money; New Orleans Pelicans +3.5: 27% of bets, 58% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 231.5: 53% of bets, 92% of the money; Under 231.5: 47% of bets, 8% of the money.