San Antonio Spurs vs Sacramento Kings prediction: Wembanyama gets a Kings defense with nothing at the rim

Wembanyama in an open lane

The Spurs arrive in Sacramento for tonight's NBA Cup group game on a six-game winning streak, and the last of those wins showed exactly what the Kings are up against. Victor Wembanyama posted a career-high 52 points and 24 rebounds Wednesday to drag San Antonio past Dallas. Now he gets a team that has spent eight games letting opponents walk to the basket.

Sacramento ranks 30th of 30 in block rate, the share of opponent 2-point tries it swats away. It is also last in opponent 2-point percentage at 60.5%. San Antonio scores 56.0 points a game in the paint, second-most in the league, and Wembanyama is averaging 29.0 points.

His jumper is the one gap: he's shooting 24.0% from three this season. The Kings' best counter may be the zone Doug Christie has floated using against elite scorers, packing bodies inside and daring Wembanyama to shoot from outside.

The October meeting showed how ugly this can get. San Antonio led 80-54 at halftime and won 130-103, its fourth straight win over Sacramento across the last two seasons.

Where Sacramento finds points

The Kings' offense runs through two guards. Darius Acuff Jr. leads them at 25.6 points a game, but he's shooting 39.7% to get there. Zach LaVine has been the efficient one, making 38.3% of his threes. Domantas Sabonis does his damage inside and on the glass, pulling down 14.9 rebounds a game.

That interior work runs into the league's stingiest 2-point defense. San Antonio holds opponents to 46.5% inside the arc, best in the NBA, and owns the third-best block rate. The crack is beyond the arc: opponents hit 37.1% of their threes against the Spurs, 26th in the league. If LaVine gets hot from deep, that's where Sacramento can keep the margin respectable.

Turnovers fuel the runs

San Antonio protects the ball better than anyone. Its turnover rate (giveaways per 100 possessions) is 12.5, first in the league. Sacramento coughs it up at 16.6, 25th.

Those extra possessions become runouts. The Spurs lead the NBA with 19.9 fast-break points a game, and a Kings team that turns it over and can't protect the rim is the ideal opponent for that kind of game. San Antonio scores the third-most first-half points in the league, and Sacramento allows the second-most before the break. That's where blowouts get built.

Both rosters are short-handed

Neither team is whole. The Spurs' two biggest offseason additions, Tobias Harris and Jayden Quaintance, have yet to play this season. Harris (calf) is listed out on the league injury report, though this week's listings disagree on whether he's out or day-to-day tonight, and Mitch Johnson has said the team won't rush him. Quaintance is still rehabbing from knee surgery with no firm return date.

Sacramento is thinner. Keegan Murray (ankle) and Maxime Raynaud (knee) are out, and Ben Simmons is done for the season after surgery on a torn Achilles. Daeqwon Plowden, who missed Wednesday's loss to the Lakers with an illness, was reported available, though one Thursday listing still had him day-to-day.

A big spread, a shaky cover record

A big spread, a shaky cover record The Spurs are 17.5-point favorites, with the total at 231.5. The spread has moved toward San Antonio from 15.5 when our feed first tracked it.

Winning hasn't meant covering for San Antonio, which is 3-5 against the spread. Wednesday's 112-111 escape against Dallas came with the Spurs laying 12.5. Their games have also leaned low, going 2-6 to the over.

The case for the Spurs is the October rout and a Kings team still winless at home at 0-3. The case for Sacramento is that San Antonio has been content to win by less than the market expects.