Boston Celtics vs Charlotte Hornets prediction: Charlotte gets its threes against Boston. Making them is the problem

Open looks, cold hands

Charlotte arrives in NBA Cup group play already behind, after a 95-79 loss in its opener, and on a five-game losing streak. Boston has won six of its last seven. The Hornets' path to an upset runs through the one thing the Celtics willingly hand out.

Boston's defense makes the same offer every night: take the three. Opponents have taken 50.4% of their shots from deep against the Celtics, the highest share in the league, while Boston allows the second-fewest points in the paint. For most opponents that's a fair trade. For Charlotte it may be the only offense on the menu.

The Hornets already take more threes than anyone, 51.1% of their attempts, and make 29.6% of them, 28th in the league. The result is the NBA's worst offense at 99.7 points per 100 possessions. Brandon Miller carries the scoring load at 22.0 points a game, but he is shooting 26.7% from three. The bright spot comes off the bench: Grayson Allen is hitting 49.2% from deep and has made more threes than Miller in fewer minutes. Kon Knueppel won't help; he is out again after re-aggravating his left hamstring strain in Wednesday's season debut, which lasted about six minutes.

Where Boston can pull away

The cleaner Boston edge is ball security. Charlotte gives the ball away on 19.6% of its possessions (turnover rate), worst in the league, and Boston forces turnovers at the 7th-highest rate. Paul George leads that pressure with 2.6 steals a game. Every giveaway is a possession a cold-shooting team can't spare.

Charlotte's counter is the glass. The Hornets rank 1st in defensive rebound percentage, the share of opponents' misses they collect, so Boston should get few second chances. At the other end, Boston ranks 24th on its own defensive boards, which leaves room for Charlotte to extend possessions after all those missed threes. That edge leans on Moussa Diabate, who grabs 9.1 rebounds a game and is questionable with a quad injury, in danger of missing his first game of the season. If he sits, Ryan Kalkbrenner would likely start at center.

Tatum returns, guards in doubt

Jayson Tatum rested Wednesday during a packed stretch of Boston's schedule and is off the injury report. He is averaging 27.0 points and 7.9 assists, though his jumper hasn't followed: he's shooting 22.9% from three. The Celtics beat Milwaukee without him and closed that game without Payton Pritchard, too.

Pritchard (right eye abrasion) was still questionable on Thursday's report. Joe Mazzulla said he "seems like he's OK." If he sits, Mike Conley or Baylor Scheierman could pick up minutes. Devin Carter is out with an illness.

Charlotte's list is longer. Dennis Schroder (thigh) is questionable and likely on a minutes limit if he plays; reports conflict on his status, so it stays unsettled until the Hornets confirm. Coby White is healthy but on a strict minutes restriction. Former Celtic Grant Williams (hamstring) is out.

A wide spread, a low total

Boston is favored by 10.5, and the line has moved from 8.5 since our feed first picked it up Friday morning, while the total has dropped from 209.5 to 208.0. The total reflects two of the league's slowest teams: Charlotte plays at the slowest pace in the NBA and Boston ranks 26th. The under has hit in six of Boston's eight games and six of Charlotte's nine.

The spread is the harder read. Boston is 3-5 against the spread and has struggled to clear big numbers, including a one-point home win over Brooklyn as a 13.5-point favorite. Charlotte hasn't covered in any of its last five games, a run that tracks its losing streak. Last season the Hornets won 118-89 in Boston in March before the Celtics took the next two meetings.