Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder prediction: Without Jalen Williams, Thunder lean on the NBA's stingiest defense

A short bench on short rest

Last spring Oklahoma City swept Phoenix out of the first round. The rematch arrives with the Thunder bruised: Jalen Williams left Sunday's win on a stretcher, two more rotation players are game-time decisions, and the champions-in-waiting are on the second night of a back-to-back. The Suns come in with two days off.

Williams went down driving to the basket with 1:14 left against the Clippers, on a foul ruled flagrant after review. The team had no diagnosis Sunday night, and he is reported to miss tonight's game, though one listing still carried him as day-to-day on Monday. Cason Wallace (left shoulder) and Jaylin Williams (right wrist) both left Sunday's game early and are game-time decisions. Nikola Topić (back) and Thomas Sorber (knee) are out.

Sunday previewed the fallback. Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso and Jared McCain each played more than 20 minutes, and rookies Aday Mara and Bennett Stirtz both got run. McCain, who shot 38.5% from three for the 76ers last season, matters more than usual on a roster that ranks 28th of 30 in 3-point attempt rate.

Phoenix is thin in a different spot. Mark Williams is out after shoulder surgery, and Oso Ighodaro, who missed Saturday with an oblique strain, ranges from doubtful to a game-time decision depending on the listing. That pushes rookie Khaman Maluach, who started the opener, toward heavier minutes against Chet Holmgren.

Booker into the teeth

The defense is why Oklahoma City is 3-0. The Thunder allow 93.7 points per 100 possessions, best in the league, and they block shots at the league's highest rate.

That collides with the one thing Phoenix's offense has done well. The Suns hit 58.8% of their twos, 6th in the league, because the outside shot hasn't followed: they are making 29.4% from three, 26th. Devin Booker, who averaged 26.1 points and 6.0 assists last season, will have to create inside the arc against Holmgren and a crowded paint.

The other pressure point is the ball. Oklahoma City forces turnovers on 20.1% of opponent possessions, 3rd in the league, and Phoenix gives it away at a 16.2% clip, 18th. Every live-ball steal is a chance for a sputtering Thunder offense to score before the Suns' defense sets.

Phoenix's open perimeter

The Suns' defense has been the worst in the league so far, allowing 120.9 points per 100 possessions. Opponents are hitting 41.9% of their threes, 29th, and Portland buried Phoenix by a 83-124 score in the opener.

Oklahoma City is an awkward team to punish that, because it doesn't shoot many threes. Its offense still runs through Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who averaged 31.1 points last season, and with Jalen Williams out, more of the creation falls on him and Mitchell.

The cleaner opening may be the glass. Phoenix grabs only 62.8% of available defensive rebounds, last in the league, and second chances are the easiest points a short-handed team can find on tired legs.

History and the number

The Suns did take the regular-season finale in Oklahoma City, 135-103, before the Thunder swept the playoff series. Treat that April result lightly; the series that followed said more.

The market has held steady all day: the Thunder are favored by 9.5 with a total of 219, unchanged since our feed first recorded the game. Oklahoma City is 0-3 to the over, a reflection of a defense that has outpaced its offense. Phoenix is 0-2 against the spread, failing to cover even in Saturday's win over Golden State.

The Thunder's own reminder came Sunday, a 108-101 win over the Clippers that fell well short of the number. With Williams gone and two more regulars uncertain, the size of the spread depends on whether Oklahoma City's defense can carry an offense that is missing pieces.