Memphis Grizzlies vs Utah Jazz prediction: Unbeaten Grizzlies bring the league's best offensive glass back to Utah

Second chances decide the rematch

The Grizzlies beat the Jazz 123-103 in Memphis to open the season, and they haven't lost since. Yet the market makes Utah a narrow favorite in Salt Lake City, where both teams arrive on the second night of a back-to-back.

The Memphis formula has been extra shots. The Grizzlies grab 37.8% of their own misses, the best offensive rebound rate in the league. That is how a team with a middling shooting profile owns the 5th-best offense, at 116.3 points per 100 possessions.

Utah's best defensive habit sits right in that path. The Jazz rebound 76.2% of opponents' misses, 4th of 30. Their defense is otherwise in trouble, allowing 119.9 points per 100 possessions, 28th in the league, so ending possessions with a rebound is the one lever they reliably pull.

Memphis also gives the ball away often, with a turnover rate (giveaways per 100 possessions) of 17.9, 26th of 30. Utah is poorly built to punish that: it forces turnovers at the 27th-ranked rate. If the Grizzlies' sloppiness goes unpunished and their glass work survives, the opener's script repeats.

Utah's path runs to the line

The Jazz offense does its best work close to the rim and at the stripe. Utah hits 57.9% of its twos, 7th in the league, and its free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) ranks 5th.

That runs into a Memphis weakness. The Grizzlies send opponents to the line at the 24th-ranked rate, so Utah should get chances to slow the game and score with the clock stopped. The catch is conversion: the Jazz make just 73.1% of their free throws, 23rd of 30.

Memphis protects the paint well when its bigs are available, allowing 42.7 paint points per game, 5th fewest, and ranking 4th in block rate. Who mans the middle tonight is the open question.

Tired legs and thin frontcourts

Zach Edey sat Sunday's win in Sacramento for left ankle injury management, and Memphis hadn't announced his status for tonight. Cedric Coward was questionable for Sunday with a left wrist sprain, and Karim Lopez was out with a right knee bruise; neither has an update for this game. With Edey out, rookie Cam Boozer has taken on more interior work, and he hit the go-ahead jumper against Golden State. Isaiah Stewart and Quinten Post are the other options inside.

Utah is without Jusuf Nurkić, who was expected to miss at least four weeks from Oct. 7 with a partial plantar plate tear in his right foot. Trey Alexander and Tony Bradley were both out as of Oct. 21, with no newer word. Will Hardy reshuffled his starters after the opener, putting rookie Darryn Peterson alongside Jaren Jackson Jr., Lauri Markkanen and Keyonte George, and moving Jaxson Hayes to the bench. That group just gave up 52 points to Luka Dončić on Sunday.

A short line that hasn't budged

Utah is favored by 1, with moneylines of -118 and -102, and neither the spread nor the 238 total has moved since our feed first saw the game. Memphis is 3-0 against the spread; Utah is 0-3.

The Grizzlies play slowly, ranking 27th in pace, and two of their three games have gone under. Utah does almost nothing in transition, with 6.7 fast-break points per game, last in the league. Tired legs on both benches point the same direction.

Last season's series split two games apiece, including a 147-101 Utah rout in April, but Memphis returns only 52.6% of last season's minutes, so those meetings say little about this roster.