Chicago Bulls vs Boston Celtics prediction: Bulls bring the NBA's coldest jump shot into Boston's 3-point-friendly defense

Chicago's jump shot has gone missing

Three games in, the Bulls have built an offense that refuses to stop shooting and cannot find the net. They are making 22.6% of their threes, last of 30 teams, yet still take 44.9% of their shots from deep, 7th-most in the league. That combination drags their effective field goal percentage, which counts a three as 1.5 times a two, to 46.0%, also dead last.

Tiago Splitter isn't backing off. "I want them to shoot the ball," he said after Saturday's loss to Washington, and the shooting concerns date back to the offseason.

Boston is an inviting target. Celtics opponents take 48.2% of their shots from three, 3rd-most in the league, and hit 38.8% of them, 26th. Norman Powell, who made 38.0% of his threes for Miami last season, is the likeliest Bull to punish that. If Chicago's misses keep piling up, the spread is out of reach. If even a normal share falls, this defense has shown it will give up looks.

The fastest team visits the slowest

Chicago plays at the league's fastest pace, an estimated 111.2 possessions per game. Boston plays the slowest at 98.2. The market prices that gap: Chicago's three closing totals ranged from 237.5 to 244.5, while both Celtics games closed at 220.5. Tonight's 233 splits the difference.

The Bulls feed on transition, scoring 21.3 fast-break points a game (3rd). Boston rarely gives them that fuel. Chicago forces turnovers at the league's 25th-ranked rate. Steals that become layups are how the Bulls speed a game up, and Boston isn't handing them out.

Where the Bulls can steal points

Chicago's best offensive habit is getting to the line. Its free throw rate, free throw attempts per field goal attempt, sits at 38.8%, 3rd in the league, and the Bulls make 84.1% of those tries. Boston allows a 31.9% free throw rate, 21st.

The glass offers a second opening. Boston has grabbed only 67.5% of available defensive rebounds, 27th, though the Bulls will hunt those boards without Nic Claxton. He was ruled out with a hamstring injury on Oct. 19 and is due to be re-evaluated around Nov. 4. Undrafted rookie Tobe Awaka could see a bigger interior role, and Zach Collins may hold the backup center spot if Noa Essengue sits. Essengue (head bruise) and Patrick Williams (groin) were both listed as questionable as of Oct. 25.

No. 4 pick Caleb Wilson gives Chicago some hope up front after a 30-point, 14-rebound night against Washington.

A reshaped Boston finds its anchor

The Celtics lost Jaylen Brown, who averaged 28.7 points last season, to Philadelphia, and they now build around Paul George, who averaged 17.3 points for the 76ers last season. Jayson Tatum carried them past the Knicks with 36 points and a clutch late stretch, the win that evened Boston at 1-1 after an opening loss at Detroit.

The defense has been stingy early. Boston has allowed just 47.0 first-half points per game, 2nd in the league, while Chicago has conceded 62.7 before halftime, 26th. Boston also returns 74.7% of last season's minutes, compared with 57.2% for Chicago, so the Bulls' team numbers from a season ago tell you little about this group. Devin Carter (mononucleosis) remains out for Boston.

What the number says

Boston is a 14-point favorite with a 233 total, both unchanged since our feed first recorded them Monday morning. The Celtics covered 42 of 65 lined games last season, and their games went under 42 times. Chicago is 1-2 against the spread this year, most recently failing as a 1.5-point favorite in a 124-120 home loss to Washington.

The Bulls arrive with two days' rest after a Friday-Saturday back-to-back, and Boston had three. Boston won two of three meetings last season, and the teams play again Friday in Boston.