Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat prediction: Giannis and the winless Heat face a Mavericks frontcourt in pieces

A rebuild still looking for a win

Miami traded for Giannis Antetokounmpo in June, and three games in it hasn't won at all. The Heat are 0-3 for the first time since 2007, yet the market still makes them 8.5-point favorites Monday night, largely because of who Dallas won't have.

The June deal sent Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware and Jaime Jaquez Jr. to Milwaukee, and the new group hasn't found its footing. Miami's net efficiency, points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, sits at -14.8, 29th of 30. The damage comes early: opponents are scoring 66.7 first-half points a game against the Heat, last in the league.

Saturday's 115-110 loss at Charlotte showed both faces of this team. Miami fell behind by 21, opened the fourth on a 25-4 run to tie it, then lost anyway. Antetokounmpo fouled out after 24:44 on the floor. He averaged 27.6 points for the Bucks last season, and Miami needs that volume without the whistles.

Dallas arrives short-handed

The Mavericks' injury list is long. Cooper Flagg, who averaged 21.0 points last season, sat Saturday after an MRI showed a mild left shoulder sprain and is questionable for Monday. Naji Marshall is out with an illness. Dereck Lively II (foot), Santi Aldama (knee) and Tarik Biberovic (heel) are also out. Caleb Martin (thumb) was listed doubtful Sunday, though at least one Monday update called him day-to-day, so his status is unsettled.

There is one piece of good news. Kyrie Irving, rested Saturday on the second night of a back-to-back, was off the injury report as of Sunday night.

Dusty May's rotation is already leaning on newcomers. Rookie Sergio de Larrea scored 21 against the Spurs, and Zaccharie Risacher took on a bigger role. Dallas returns just 56.1% of last season's minutes, so last season's team numbers say little about this group. The best evidence of its ceiling is May's first NBA win, a 121-105 rout at Indiana.

Inside out, or outside in

Healthy, Dallas has scored efficiently near the basket, putting up 56.0 paint points a game (4th). That strength runs straight into Miami's one sturdy unit: the Heat allow just 38.7 paint points, 3rd-fewest in the league.

The opening is on the perimeter. Opponents are hitting 42.0% of their threes against Miami, 30th of 30, and they take threes more often than against almost anyone. Dallas doesn't shoot many threes, but it makes 36.4% of them (10th). With bigs missing, Max Christie and Risacher spotting up may matter more than any post touch.

At the other end, the matchup favors Miami. Dallas gives up 58.0 paint points a game (28th), and Lively and Aldama, two of its bigger bodies, are unavailable. Antetokounmpo and Adebayo should have room to work. Miami's own shooting has been cold at 30.3% from three (23rd), which puts extra weight on the minutes Klay Thompson gives against his former team.

Giveaways and the number

Dallas has been careless with the ball, turning it over on 18.3% of possessions (27th). Miami protects it at 13.8% (6th). Against a team already short on bodies, extra Heat possessions are the most direct way to build a margin.

The market hasn't flinched at Miami's start. The spread has held at Heat -8.5 and the total at 238 across 11 books since our feed first saw them. The Heat are 0-3 against the spread and lost outright as favorites against Minnesota and at Charlotte. Dallas is 1-2 against the spread, covering only at Indiana. A final word on Flagg before tip would test how firmly that 8.5 holds.