Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks prediction: Winless Bucks face Haliburton's Pacers and a looming 0-4 start

Indiana lives in the paint

For three games, Indiana's offense has been a straight line to the basket. The Pacers score 60.0 points in the paint per game, 2nd in the league, and they convert 62.0% of their twos, also 2nd. That is the engine behind an offense scoring 121.3 points per game.

Milwaukee is a poor place to try to stop it. Opponents are making 57.0% of their twos against the Bucks, 23rd in the league, and Milwaukee has allowed 129.0 points per game, dead last. A rebuilt roster under new coach Taylor Jenkins is still learning where to be.

The complication is size. Ivica Zubac is listed as day-to-day with a sprained left ankle; Rick Carlisle said X-rays were negative but the swelling makes him unlikely to play Monday. Without him, more of the middle falls to Jay Huff, and Milwaukee's bigs, Myles Turner and Kel'el Ware, can drag him away from the rim with their outside shooting.

New faces on both benches

Tyrese Haliburton is back after missing all of 2025-26 with a torn Achilles, and he was not on Monday's injury list. That makes last season's Indiana numbers a weak guide: the 19-63 team never had him. Pascal Siakam, who averaged 24.0 points last season, gives the Pacers a second creator, and Kelly Oubre Jr. arrives after averaging 14.1 points for the 76ers.

The depth behind them is thinner. T.J. McConnell (hamstring) is out, with Carlisle saying Monday he is "still not back yet." Ben Sheppard has a torn meniscus and no timetable, and Johnny Furphy is out for the season.

Milwaukee looks like a different franchise. Giannis Antetokounmpo went to Miami, and back came Tyler Herro, Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis and Caris LeVert. Only 64.3% of last season's minutes return. Herro, who averaged 20.5 points for the Heat last season, was quiet in Saturday's loss at Philadelphia while Ware had his best night as a Buck. Ryan Rollins and AJ Green, last season's 40.6% and 41.9% shooters from deep, keep the spacing honest.

Whistles, giveaways and a fast floor

This should move. Milwaukee plays at the 3rd-fastest pace in the league, and Indiana sits 10th.

It should also stop often for free throws. Both defenses send opponents to the line constantly: Milwaukee ranks 29th in opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per shot), Indiana 27th. Neither team cashes in, though. The Bucks shoot 70.1% at the line, 29th, and the Pacers rank 25th.

Milwaukee's bigger problem is the ball. The Bucks turn it over on 17.5% of possessions, 23rd, and force turnovers at the lowest rate in the league. Indiana's weak spot is the start: the Pacers have allowed 66.3 first-half points per game, 29th, including a 77-point half against Dallas. They also play the second night of a back-to-back after beating Brooklyn 136-109 on Sunday.

History against the number

The Bucks have won seven of their past eight meetings, including all four last season. Those games featured Antetokounmpo and no Haliburton, so the streak says more about last season's rosters than this one.

The market believes the present. Indiana is a 4.5-point favorite with a 240.5 total, and neither number has moved since our feed first recorded it Monday morning. Milwaukee's games have gone over in all three tries, and the Bucks did cover as 12.5-point underdogs at Philadelphia despite losing. Indiana is 2-1 against the spread, with its lone miss coming in that Dallas blowout.