Washington Wizards vs Charlotte Hornets prediction: Wizards' free-throw barrage tests a Hornets offense missing Kon Knueppel
Washington gets to the line more than anyone, while Charlotte is launching threes at a historic clip without its best shooter and missing most of them.
| Spread | Charlotte Hornets -3 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 228 |
- Expect Washington to pound the paint and the foul line while a short-handed Charlotte keeps firing threes it has mostly missed.
- Washington's league-best free throw rate (40.2%) against a Charlotte defense ranked 13th in opponent free throw rate.
- Charlotte is a 2-point favorite with a 229 total, both unchanged since our feed first saw the game. All three Hornets games have gone under.
Two teams playing short
Both teams are 2-1, and both will again be without the young player who was supposed to shape their season. No. 1 pick AJ Dybantsa is out with a left ankle sprain, his fourth straight absence before a regular-season debut. Across the floor, Kon Knueppel sits with a left hamstring strain after missing all three of Charlotte's games.
The Hornets' list runs deeper. Coby White (calf), Grant Williams (hamstring) and Kylan Boswell (knee) are all out, and Christian Anderson was listed probable with an ankle sprain for Saturday's game with no update since. Washington is also without Tristan Vukcevic (hip) and Jamir Watkins, who is out for the season after ACL surgery. Both teams come in with two days of rest.
Washington lives at the line
The Wizards' identity has flipped from last season. Their free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) sits at 40.2%, 1st of 30, after ranking 26th last season. They also score 54.7 points in the paint per game, 5th in the league.
The frontcourt explains it. Anthony Davis averaged 20.4 points in 20 games for Dallas last season, and Deandre Ayton shot 67.1% for the Lakers. Trae Young has led the team in scoring in each of the last two games, including 25 in Saturday's win at Chicago. Charlotte's defense is middle of the pack at keeping teams off the line, 13th in opponent free throw rate. If Washington turns this into a parade of whistles, the Hornets' thin rotation gets stretched further.
Charlotte's threes keep coming
No team shoots more threes than Charlotte: 53.2% of its shots come from deep, the most in the league. The problem is the makes. The Hornets are hitting 29.6% from three, 25th, and their offense scores 98.9 points per 100 possessions, last of 30. Knueppel, who shot 42.5% from deep last season, is the missing piece.
Washington is a bad draw for that plan. Opponents are shooting 28.8% from three against the Wizards, 4th-best. Brandon Miller, fresh off a five-year, $209 million extension, scored 34 against Miami on Saturday, and Dennis Schröder and Grayson Allen have taken on bigger roles. Charlotte needs at least one of them to get hot.
Extra possessions for Charlotte
The Hornets have handed the ball away freely, with a turnover rate (turnovers per 100 possessions) of 20.4%, 29th. Washington doesn't punish that much, forcing turnovers at a rate that ranks 23rd.
Charlotte gets some of those empty trips back on the glass. Its offensive rebound rate (share of its own misses it grabs) ranks 6th, against a Wizards defensive rebounding unit ranked 18th. All those missed threes produce long rebounds, and Moussa Diabate, who pulled down 8.7 boards a game last season, is the man to chase them.
Where the market sits
Charlotte is favored by 2 at home with a total of 229, and neither number has moved since our feed first recorded the game. The Hornets have gone under in all three games this season. That fits last season too, when they went under in 41 of 65 games with a line.
The pace gap is real. Washington ranks 6th in possessions per game, Charlotte 22nd. Charlotte swept all four meetings last season, but both rosters have turned over. The Hornets traded LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges and return 60.8% of last season's minutes, so those results are a weak guide. The rematch comes Friday in Washington.
Key players
- Anthony Davis (Washington Wizards): Averaged 20.4 points and 11.1 rebounds in 20 games for Dallas last season.
- Deandre Ayton (Washington Wizards): Shot 67.1% from the field for the Lakers last season, all of it inside the arc.
- Bub Carrington (Washington Wizards): Hit 40.8% of his threes for Washington last season, a rare reliable shooter on a team at 28.6% from deep this season.
- Brandon Miller (Charlotte Hornets): Scored 34 against Miami on Saturday after averaging 20.2 points for Charlotte last season.
- Grayson Allen (Charlotte Hornets): Averaged 16.5 points for Phoenix last season and has taken on a bigger role with Knueppel out.
- Naz Reid (Charlotte Hornets): Averaged 13.6 points for Minnesota last season while hitting 36.2% from three.
Numbers that matter
| Wizards free throw rate | 40.2% | First in the league, after ranking 26th last season. |
|---|---|---|
| Hornets 3-point attempt rate | 53.2% | The most in the league, but Charlotte is hitting only 29.6% of them. |
| Wizards opponent 3-point % | 28.8% | Fourth-best, a tough draw for the league's most three-heavy offense. |
| Hornets offensive efficiency | 98.9 | Points per 100 possessions, last of 30, with Knueppel out all season. |
| Hornets spread | -2 | Unchanged since our feed first saw the game, with the total holding at 229. |
Washington Wizards vs Charlotte Hornets: quick answers
Who is favored in Washington Wizards vs Charlotte Hornets?
Charlotte Hornets is favored by 3 points (Charlotte Hornets -3).
What is the over/under for Washington Wizards vs Charlotte Hornets?
The total is 228 points.
When is Washington Wizards vs Charlotte Hornets?
Monday, October 26, 2026 at 7:10 PM ET.