Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets prediction: Jokic and the Nuggets eye a Warriors defense that can't guard inside
Golden State gets Stephen Curry and its veterans back for a night in Denver, but an 0-3 team giving up the league's best shooting looks has to find answers near the rim.
| Spread | Denver Nuggets -7.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 236.5 |
- Denver should feast inside against a defense allowing 64.4% on twos; Golden State's best hope runs through steals and second chances.
- Watch Nikola Jokic against Draymond Green and Al Horford; Golden State ranks 30th in opponent effective field goal percentage.
- Denver -8 and a 233.5 total haven't moved since our feed first saw the line; home teams won all four meetings last season.
Jokic against an open door
The Warriors are 0-3, and the defense is the reason. Golden State allows 120.2 points per 100 possessions, 29th of 30. Opponents are making 64.4% of their two-point shots, the worst mark in the league, and the Warriors also rank last in opponent effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that gives threes extra credit) at 61.7%.
That is a dangerous thing to bring to Ball Arena. Nikola Jokic averaged 27.7 points last season and dished 10.7 assists a night, and he is coming off a triple-double in Saturday's overtime win over New Orleans. Jamal Murray scored 42 in that game as Denver rallied from 19 down entering the fourth quarter, a comeback that came after the home crowd had booed a sluggish start. The Warriors give up 55.3 paint points per game, so Jokic should find room to work, either as a scorer or as the hub feeding cutters.
Steals and second chances
Golden State does have weapons, and they come from effort plays. The Warriors force turnovers on 20.2% of opponent possessions, 2nd in the league, and they grab 35.4% of their own misses, 3rd. Extra possessions are how an undermanned team hangs around against a better one.
The glass cuts the other way too. Golden State secures only 65.1% of available defensive rebounds, 29th, and Denver is pulling down 33.3% of its own misses, 4th. If the Nuggets win the offensive boards, the Warriors' turnover edge may not be enough to keep this close.
Who's actually playing
Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green and Al Horford are all off Golden State's injury report for Monday. Curry is still being managed cautiously because of his right knee, and Podziemski's lower back cost him two of the first three games. Gui Santos is questionable with left knee tendinitis after leaving Saturday's loss at Phoenix in the third quarter; without him the Warriors may lean on three-guard lineups. Brandon Williams (back) and Charles Bassey (knee) are probable. Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody and Jimmy Butler III remain out long term.
Denver has its own holes. Cameron Johnson (ankle) and Alpha Diallo (wrist) are doubtful, Spencer Jones (hamstring) is out, and Julian Strawther is sidelined with a knee sprain. Johnson's absence stings most for an offense that is shooting 29.9% from three, 24th, after leading the league at 39.6% last season; Johnson himself hit 43.0% last season. Newcomer DeMar DeRozan, who averaged 18.4 points for Sacramento last season, gives Denver a second creator, and rookie Trevon Brazile scored 17 off the bench in his home debut.
Where the line sits
Denver is favored by 8 with a total of 233.5, and neither number has budged since our feed first logged the game Monday morning. Neither team has given bettors much to trust: the Nuggets are 0-2 against the spread, including a non-cover as 11.5-point favorites against New Orleans, while Golden State is 1-2, covering at Phoenix as a 9.5-point underdog.
History favors the home side. These teams split four meetings last season, with the home team winning every time, and Denver's two wins in its building were lopsided: 129-104 and 116-93. Both teams come in with two days of rest, so there is no schedule edge to lean on.
Key players
- Brandin Podziemski (Golden State Warriors): Averaged 13.8 points and 5.1 rebounds last season and returns from a back injury that cost him two of the first three games.
- Draymond Green (Golden State Warriors): Averaged 5.5 assists last season and anchors a defense now ranked 29th in efficiency.
- Brandon Williams (Golden State Warriors): Averaged 13.0 points for the Mavericks last season and is listed as probable with back soreness.
- Gui Santos (Golden State Warriors): Posted a 58.5% effective field goal percentage last season but is questionable with left knee tendinitis.
- Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets): Averaged 27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds and 10.7 assists last season and opened this one with a triple-double Saturday.
- Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets): Made 43.5% of his threes last season and scored 42 in Saturday's overtime win.
- DeMar DeRozan (Denver Nuggets): Averaged 18.4 points for the Kings last season in his first year before joining Denver.
- Christian Braun (Denver Nuggets): Shot 51.9% from the field last season and could see more minutes with Johnson doubtful.
Numbers that matter
| Warriors opponent 2-point % | 64.4% | Last in the league, a soft spot for Jokic and Denver's interior offense. |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors forced turnover rate | 20.2% | Ranks 2nd and is Golden State's clearest path to extra possessions. |
| Warriors defensive rebound % | 65.1% | Ranks 29th against a Denver team 4th in offensive rebounding. |
| Nuggets 3-point % | 29.9% | Ranks 24th after Denver led the league from deep last season, and Johnson is doubtful. |
| Spread | -8 | Denver's number hasn't moved since our feed first saw the game. |
Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets: quick answers
Who is favored in Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets?
Denver Nuggets is favored by 7.5 points (Denver Nuggets -7.5).
What is the over/under for Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets?
The total is 236.5 points.
When is Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets?
Monday, October 26, 2026 at 10:10 PM ET.