Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs prediction: Without Curry, the Warriors must shoot over Wembanyama in San Antonio
Golden State loses its best shooter for a trip to a Spurs defense that walls off the paint but allows a high percentage from three.
San Antonio Spurs covered the closing spread (Golden State Warriors +12.5). The game went under the closing total of 217.5.
| Spread | San Antonio Spurs -12 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 218 |
- Expect San Antonio to own the paint and the glass; Golden State's path runs through volume threes against a defense ranked 26th in opponent 3-point percentage.
- Victor Wembanyama's rim protection against Yaxel Lendeborg, the rookie who now carries Golden State's scoring with Curry out.
- Spurs -12.5, down from -14 when our feed first saw it; San Antonio is 5-7 against the spread this season.
Life after Curry starts tonight
The Warriors found out what life without Stephen Curry looks like the hard way. He left Wednesday's 115-108 loss in Houston in the first quarter and has since been diagnosed with an oblique abdominal tear, with a re-evaluation set for two weeks out. Steve Kerr said after the game that the "concern is high."
The hole is enormous. Curry was averaging 27.8 points in just 26.5 minutes a night. He was hitting 45.7% of his threes, the engine of a team that leads the league in 3-point percentage.
The infirmary is crowded behind him. Jimmy Butler (torn ACL recovery), Kristaps Porzingis (listed with an illness after announcing he is stepping away from basketball), Moses Moody (knee) and Brandon Williams (hamstring) are all out. Charles Bassey is probable with a sore toe.
The load falls on rookie Yaxel Lendeborg, who averages 21.7 points and posted 25 points and 10 rebounds after Curry went down in Houston. Golden State rallied to tie that game without its star, which is the hopeful version of tonight. Brandin Podziemski and De'Anthony Melton must take more shots, and Draymond Green, at 7.5 assists a game, becomes the organizer of everything.
The arc is the only door
Golden State lives outside. It takes 48.2% of its shots from three, 5th-most in the league, and is the NBA's best 3-point shooting team at 39.6%. Inside, the Warriors are ordinary: their paint scoring ranks 24th.
That is a problem in San Antonio. Opponents shoot 47.9% on twos against the Spurs, the best mark in the league, and Wembanyama alone blocks 4.4 shots a game.
The opening is beyond the arc. The Spurs allow the fewest 3-point attempts relative to total shots of any team, but opponents who get them off hit 37.8%, which ranks 26th. Without Curry, that crack has to be pried open by Lendeborg (42.6% from three) and Melton (42.9% on 63 attempts).
San Antonio protects the ball and runs
The Spurs rarely give anything away. Their turnover rate of 12.1 per 100 possessions is the lowest in the league, which blunts a Warriors defense that ranks 8th in forcing turnovers.
The Spurs also finish possessions on the defensive glass, 3rd in defensive rebound rate, against a Golden State team that ranks 6th on the offensive boards. When they get stops, they run: San Antonio leads the league with 19.1 fast-break points a game. A Warriors offense now missing its primary ball-handler, already 19th in turnover rate, can't afford live-ball giveaways.
The Spurs have their own questions. De'Aaron Fox (hip) and Devin Vassell (groin) are both questionable, and Tobias Harris (calf) is out. Julian Champagnie has started in Vassell's place and is shooting 43.6% from three. Wembanyama, averaging 30.2 points and 11.7 rebounds, is not on the injury report.
Big spreads, thin covers
San Antonio is favored by 12.5 with a moneyline of -700, down from the -14 our feed first recorded. The Spurs have won 10 straight, but laying big numbers with them has been uneven: they are 5-7 against the spread. They beat Dallas by a point as 12.5-point favorites and won by five in Chicago while laying 15.5.
The total sits at 219.5, up from 218.5. Spurs games have gone under 8 times in 12, and San Antonio scores 62.1 first-half points a game, 2nd in the league.
Golden State is 8-4 against the spread this season. Last season, the Warriors won both visits to San Antonio, 125-120 and 109-108, before the Spurs took the two later meetings.
Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs line movement and odds
| Book | Warriors ML | Spurs ML | Warriors spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +500 | -700 | +12.5 (-105) | o217.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +480 | -715 | +13.5 (-122) | o216.5 (-115) |
| DraftKings | +501 | -700 | +12.5 (-108) | o217.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +500 | -800 | +12.5 (-110) | o217.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | +500 | -700 | +13 (-110) | o217.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +500 | -700 | +12.5 (-106) | o216.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +550 | -800 | +12.5 (-105) | o216.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +500 | -700 | +13 (-115) | o217.5 (-105) |
Where the money is on Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs
On the Kalshi moneyline: Golden State Warriors: 60% of bets, 10% of the money; San Antonio Spurs: 41% of bets, 90% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: San Antonio Spurs -12.5: 53% of bets, 67% of the money; Golden State Warriors +12.5: 47% of bets, 33% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 217.5: 78% of bets, 72% of the money; Under 217.5: 22% of bets, 29% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Golden State Warriors (2 wallets, $30) vs San Antonio Spurs (2 wallets, $108). Largest: Elated-Liberty $60 on San Antonio Spurs, Gracious-Junk $48 on San Antonio Spurs, Bold-Health $24 on Golden State Warriors.
Key players
- Yaxel Lendeborg (Golden State Warriors): The rookie averages 21.7 points and 7.4 rebounds this season while hitting 42.6% from three.
- Brandin Podziemski (Golden State Warriors): Averages 17.3 points and 4.2 assists this season and must absorb much of Curry's ball-handling.
- De'Anthony Melton (Golden State Warriors): Shooting 42.9% from three on 63 attempts this season off the bench.
- Draymond Green (Golden State Warriors): Scores only 3.2 points but averages 7.5 assists this season as the offense's hub.
- Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs): Averaging 30.2 points, 11.7 rebounds and 4.4 blocks this season.
- Dylan Harper (San Antonio Spurs): Averages 18.0 points and 4.8 assists this season in 31.9 minutes.
- De'Aaron Fox (San Antonio Spurs): Questionable with hip soreness after averaging 14.2 points and 6.2 assists this season.
- Julian Champagnie (San Antonio Spurs): Has made 43.6% of his threes this season and has started in Vassell's place.
Numbers that matter
| Warriors 3-point percentage | 39.6% | Best in the league, but built largely with Curry, who is out. |
|---|---|---|
| Spurs opponent 2-point percentage | 47.9% | Best in the league, a wall for a Warriors team that ranks 24th in paint scoring. |
| Spurs opponent 3-point percentage | 37.8% | Ranks 26th, the one soft spot in a top-six defense. |
| Spurs turnover rate | 12.1% | Lowest in the league, limiting the giveaways Golden State's defense feeds on. |
| Spread | -12.5 | Spurs favored, down from -14 when our feed first saw the game. |
Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs: quick answers
What was the final score of Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs?
Golden State Warriors 85, San Antonio Spurs 123 (final). San Antonio Spurs covered the closing spread (Golden State Warriors +12.5). The game went under the closing total of 217.5.
Who is favored in Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs?
San Antonio Spurs is favored by 12 points (San Antonio Spurs -12).
What is the over/under for Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs?
The total is 218 points.
When is Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs?
Friday, November 13, 2026 at 9:40 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs?
Yes: Golden State Warriors opened +11.5 and is now +12.5, and the total is still 217.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Golden State Warriors: 60% of bets, 10% of the money; San Antonio Spurs: 41% of bets, 90% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: San Antonio Spurs -12.5: 53% of bets, 67% of the money; Golden State Warriors +12.5: 47% of bets, 33% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 217.5: 78% of bets, 72% of the money; Under 217.5: 22% of bets, 29% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Golden State Warriors (2 wallets, $30) vs San Antonio Spurs (2 wallets, $108). Largest: Elated-Liberty $60 on San Antonio Spurs, Gracious-Junk $48 on San Antonio Spurs, Bold-Health $24 on Golden State Warriors. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.