Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets prediction: Jazz, down Markkanen and Jackson, face a 17-point Cup climb in Houston
A Utah team that has lost ten straight brings a three-point problem into the building of one of the league's stingiest perimeter defenses.
Utah Jazz covered the closing spread (Utah Jazz +15.5). The game went over the closing total of 220.5.
| Spread | Houston Rockets -15 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 221 |
- Houston's defense, which allows the fewest first-half points in the league, should squeeze a Utah offense missing Markkanen, Jackson and Nurkic.
- Keyonte George against Houston's perimeter defense: Utah's 20.4-point scorer must create against a team holding opponents to 31.6% from three.
- Houston is now -15 after our feed first saw the line at -17, and Utah is 2-10 against the spread this season.
A Jazz roster stripped to the guards
Utah's season was already sliding before Lauri Markkanen broke his right hand. Now the Jazz are 1-11, have dropped ten in a row, and are 0-3 without him this season. The fracture is non-displaced, but he is out for at least a month, with the injury report pointing to early January.
He is not alone. Jaren Jackson Jr. has been out since late October with a torn MCL, and Jusuf Nurkic is still working back from a right foot injury, with a re-evaluation set for around Nov. 20. Trey Alexander's status is unsettled, with some reports listing him as a game-time decision with an ankle issue and others showing him out on a G League assignment.
Markkanen was Utah's best shooter, hitting 39.7% from three. What remains is a guard-led group. Keyonte George, who missed the Miami game with an ankle sprain before returning against Orlando, carries the load at 20.4 points. Rookie Darryn Peterson and Ace Bailey are next in line, and Bailey is expected to take on more of the offense.
Houston closes the arc
Utah can't shoot its way out of this. The Jazz make 32.6% of their threes, 27th in the league, and their effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) ranks 29th.
Houston is built to make that worse. The Rockets hold opponents to 31.6% from three, 3rd in the league, and they allow just 48.8 first-half points per game, fewest of any team. Utah's first halves are already among the league's quietest, 28th in scoring. Without Markkanen spacing the floor, expect long stretches where the Jazz offense has nowhere to go.
At the other end, Jabari Smith Jr. is shooting 42.1% from three, and Alperen Sengun runs the offense from the center spot with 7.9 assists a night.
A thin Houston frontcourt
The Rockets have their own holes. Clint Capela (ankle) and Steven Adams (calf) were both listed out, with Houston targeting Sunday's game at Washington for their returns. Marcus Smart begins a three-game suspension tonight for the punch that hit Charles Bassey in the win over Golden State.
That matters most on the glass. Houston grabs 30.8% of its own misses, 4th in the league, and that is the one battle Utah is equipped for: the Jazz rank 5th in defensive rebound rate. Utah also blocks shots, 4th in block rate, with Jaxson Hayes and Bailey protecting the rim.
The Jazz give back that edge at the foul line. Their opponents' free throw rate (free throws per field goal attempt) is 36.7%, the worst in the league. Houston makes 81.4% of its free throws, 5th best, with Kevin Durant at 85.9%.
A big number that hasn't budged
A big number that has shrunk The line has moved from Houston -17 to Houston -15 since our feed first saw this game, and the total has risen to 221.0. The Rockets are 9-3 against the spread and 6-1 at home. Utah is 2-10 against the number and 0-5 on the road.
The total carries a tempo clash. Utah plays fast, 5th in pace, while Houston ranks 27th and grinds possessions down. Jazz games have gone under in eight of 12, a fair reflection of an offense that ranks 29th in efficiency (points per 100 possessions).
This is NBA Cup group play, and Houston has been the better team in this series lately. The Rockets won 140-106 in their last meeting in Houston, on April 3 of last season.
Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets line movement and odds
| Book | Jazz ML | Rockets ML | Jazz spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +725 | -1200 | +15.5 (-115) | o221.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +750 | -1430 | +15.5 (-114) | o222.5 (-109) |
| DraftKings | +740 | -1180 | +15.5 (-112) | o221.5 (-107) |
| ESPN BET | +800 | -1600 | +15.5 (-110) | o220.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | +750 | -1200 | +15.5 (-115) | o221 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +730 | -1150 | +15.5 (-114) | o220.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +800 | -1400 | +15.5 (-110) | o220.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +700 | -1100 | +15 (-110) | o221.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets
On the Kalshi moneyline: Utah Jazz: 42% of bets, 2% of the money; Houston Rockets: 58% of bets, 98% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Houston Rockets -15.5: 62% of bets, 92% of the money; Utah Jazz +15.5: 39% of bets, 8% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 220.5: 57% of bets, 38% of the money; Under 220.5: 43% of bets, 62% of the money.
Key players
- Keyonte George (Utah Jazz): Leads the Jazz with 20.4 points and 6.5 assists this season, though he is shooting 29.9% from three.
- Darryn Peterson (Utah Jazz): Has started all 12 games this season, averaging 16.2 points while hitting 35.7% from three.
- Ace Bailey (Utah Jazz): Averages 13.3 points and 1.4 blocks this season and is expected to take on more scoring with Markkanen out.
- Alperen Sengun (Houston Rockets): Averages 21.1 points, 9.5 rebounds and 7.9 assists this season, and carries more of the interior with Capela and Adams out.
- Kevin Durant (Houston Rockets): Scores 20.9 points per game this season on 49.4% shooting.
- Jabari Smith Jr. (Houston Rockets): Has hit 42.1% of his 76 three-point attempts this season.
Numbers that matter
| Houston spread | -17 | Unchanged since our feed first recorded the line. |
|---|---|---|
| Rockets opponent 3-point % | 31.6% | Ranks 3rd in the league against a Jazz team shooting 32.6% from deep. |
| Jazz opponent free throw rate | 36.7% | Worst in the league, giving Houston a steady path to the line. |
| Jazz without Markkanen | 0-3 | Utah's record this season with its leading forward sidelined. |
| Jazz against the spread | 2-10 | Utah has rarely kept games close enough to cover this season. |
Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets: quick answers
What was the final score of Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets?
Utah Jazz 118, Houston Rockets 125 (final). Utah Jazz covered the closing spread (Utah Jazz +15.5). The game went over the closing total of 220.5.
Who is favored in Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets?
Houston Rockets is favored by 15 points (Houston Rockets -15).
What is the over/under for Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets?
The total is 221 points.
When is Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets?
Friday, November 13, 2026 at 8:40 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets?
Yes: Utah Jazz opened +16 and is now +15.5, and the total moved from 218 to 220.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Utah Jazz: 42% of bets, 2% of the money; Houston Rockets: 58% of bets, 98% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Houston Rockets -15.5: 62% of bets, 92% of the money; Utah Jazz +15.5: 39% of bets, 8% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 220.5: 57% of bets, 38% of the money; Under 220.5: 43% of bets, 62% of the money.