Portland Trail Blazers vs Sacramento Kings prediction: Short-handed Blazers bring a top-three offense to winless-at-home Sacramento
Portland is missing four guards and wings, but its shot diet and trips to the line target the exact places where the Kings' defense breaks down.
Portland Trail Blazers covered the closing spread (Portland Trail Blazers -10.5). The game went under the closing total of 229.5.
| Spread | Portland Trail Blazers -10 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 229.5 |
- Portland's efficient offense should find the paint and the free throw line; Sacramento needs Acuff and LaVine to outscore a defense ranked 27th.
- Watch Sabonis against Clingan and Robert Williams III after Sabonis went scoreless on two shots in Tuesday's loss to Orlando.
- Portland is a 10.5-point favorite with the total at 229.5; the Kings are 0-6 at home and 4-7 against the spread.
Nowhere to hide inside
Portland arrives in Sacramento without Ja Morant, Shaedon Sharpe and two more rotation players, and it is still 8-3. The Kings are 1-10 and riding a four-game slide into this NBA Cup group game. The real question is whether Sacramento's defense can keep a double-digit line within reach.
Portland's offense scores 116.7 points per 100 possessions, 3rd in the league. It gets there two ways. The Blazers take 51.2% of their shots from three, the highest share in the NBA. When they do go inside, they finish, making 58.1% of their twos (2nd).
Sacramento has no answer for either. Opponents make 58.7% of their twos against the Kings, 28th of 30, and no team blocks a smaller share of shots. Then there is the line. Portland's free throw rate (free throws attempted per field goal attempt) is 35.9%, 2nd in the league, and the Kings allow the 26th-highest rate. Every whistle hands extra points to a team that is already efficient.
Winning without the guards
The Portland injury list is long. Morant (left hamstring) is out; coach Micah Nori said last week he "may not be out for as long as we thought," but declined to give a timetable. Sharpe is out after meniscus surgery. Vit Krejci had surgery on a fractured left ankle Wednesday and will be re-evaluated in eight weeks. Chris Youngblood is out Friday with a right foot bruise.
The Blazers have kept winning anyway, going 5-1 on the road. Deni Avdija runs the offense at 23.0 points a game, and Damian Lillard scored 25 in Tuesday's win over Oklahoma City. The role players are shooting well: Toumani Camara is at 43.2% from three, and Jrue Holiday is at 44.4% off the bench.
Robert Williams III gives Portland a second big next to Donovan Clingan. Williams played both games of the OKC back-to-back, something he hadn't done since 2022.
Acuff's heavy load
Sacramento's offense ranks 27th in efficiency, and rookie Darius Acuff Jr. carries much of it at 26.2 points a night. The volume comes at a cost: his effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) is 48.6%. Zach LaVine is the efficient option, scoring 22.3 points on 59.9% effective shooting.
Domantas Sabonis is the subplot. He went scoreless on two shots against Orlando, his future in Sacramento is a live topic, and he is reportedly moving to the CAA agency. He is off Friday's injury report after a knee issue and said Thursday he was healthy.
The Kings' frontcourt is thin behind him. Precious Achiuwa is questionable with left ankle soreness, Maxime Raynaud is out with a knee injury, and Ben Simmons is out after Achilles surgery. Ball security is another problem: Sacramento turns it over on 17.0% of possessions, 27th in the league.
A double-digit number
Portland is a 10.5-point favorite, unchanged since our feed first saw the line. The total has ticked down to 229.5. The Blazers are 7-4 against the spread, while the Kings have yet to win at home. Sacramento has covered big numbers lately, though, including as an 11.5-point underdog against Miami.
The first half could set the tone. Portland scores 60.9 first-half points per game, and Sacramento allows 64.5 before the break, 29th in the league. The Blazers have won every meeting since December 2025, including a 128-120 win in Sacramento in October.
Portland Trail Blazers vs Sacramento Kings line movement and odds
| Book | Blazers ML | Kings ML | Blazers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -500 | +375 | -10.5 (-105) | o229.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | -480 | +350 | -10.5 (-107) | o230.5 (-110) |
| DraftKings | -468 | +361 | -10.5 (-105) | o229.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | -500 | +360 | -10.5 (-105) | o229.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | -475 | +360 | -10.5 (-105) | o229.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -460 | +350 | -10.5 (-104) | o229.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -500 | +400 | -10.5 (-110) | o229.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | -480 | +360 | -10.5 (-110) | o228.5 (-125) |
Where the money is on Portland Trail Blazers vs Sacramento Kings
On the Kalshi moneyline: Portland Trail Blazers: 71% of bets, 86% of the money; Sacramento Kings: 29% of bets, 14% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Portland Trail Blazers -10.5: 51% of bets, 25% of the money; Sacramento Kings +10.5: 49% of bets, 76% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 228.5: 71% of bets, 13% of the money; Under 228.5: 29% of bets, 87% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Sacramento Kings (2 wallets, $262). Largest: Bold-Health $186 on Sacramento Kings, Boiling-Sprat-Dwell $76 on Sacramento Kings.
Key players
- Deni Avdija (Portland Trail Blazers): Averages 23.0 points and 6.5 assists this season for Portland.
- Damian Lillard (Portland Trail Blazers): Averages 19.8 points this season and scored 25 in Tuesday's win over Oklahoma City.
- Toumani Camara (Portland Trail Blazers): Shooting 43.2% from three this season, with a 66.0% effective field goal percentage.
- Donovan Clingan (Portland Trail Blazers): Averages 10.4 rebounds and 2.1 blocks this season.
- Darius Acuff Jr. (Sacramento Kings): Averages 26.2 points and 7.3 assists in 37.3 minutes this season.
- Zach LaVine (Sacramento Kings): Scoring 22.3 points on a 59.9% effective field goal percentage this season.
- Domantas Sabonis (Sacramento Kings): Averages 13.3 rebounds this season but went scoreless on two shots against Orlando.
Numbers that matter
| Portland free throw rate | 35.9% | 2nd in the league, against a Kings defense that allows the 26th-highest rate. |
|---|---|---|
| Kings opponent 2-point % | 58.7% | 28th of 30, and Portland makes 58.1% of its twos. |
| Portland 3-point attempt rate | 51.2% | The highest share of threes in the NBA. |
| Kings first-half points allowed | 64.5 | 29th in the league, against a Portland team scoring 60.9 before the break. |
| Spread | -10.5 | Portland's line, unchanged since our feed first recorded it. |
Portland Trail Blazers vs Sacramento Kings: quick answers
What was the final score of Portland Trail Blazers vs Sacramento Kings?
Portland Trail Blazers 120, Sacramento Kings 107 (final). Portland Trail Blazers covered the closing spread (Portland Trail Blazers -10.5). The game went under the closing total of 229.5.
Who is favored in Portland Trail Blazers vs Sacramento Kings?
Portland Trail Blazers is favored by 10 points (Portland Trail Blazers -10).
What is the over/under for Portland Trail Blazers vs Sacramento Kings?
The total is 229.5 points.
When is Portland Trail Blazers vs Sacramento Kings?
Friday, November 13, 2026 at 10:10 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Portland Trail Blazers vs Sacramento Kings?
No: Portland Trail Blazers has stayed at -10.5, and the total moved from 231.5 to 229.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Portland Trail Blazers vs Sacramento Kings?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Portland Trail Blazers: 71% of bets, 86% of the money; Sacramento Kings: 29% of bets, 14% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Portland Trail Blazers -10.5: 51% of bets, 25% of the money; Sacramento Kings +10.5: 49% of bets, 76% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 228.5: 71% of bets, 13% of the money; Under 228.5: 29% of bets, 87% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Portland Trail Blazers vs Sacramento Kings?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Sacramento Kings (2 wallets, $262). Largest: Bold-Health $186 on Sacramento Kings, Boiling-Sprat-Dwell $76 on Sacramento Kings. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.