New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers prediction: Indiana without Haliburton faces the Knicks' relentless offensive rebounding
New York ranks 2nd in the league on both ends of the glass, and a short-handed Pacers team that finishes last in offensive rebounding hosts them in an NBA Cup group game.
Indiana Pacers covered the closing spread (New York Knicks -7.5). The game went under the closing total of 218.5.
| Spread | New York Knicks -8.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 219.5 |
- Expect a slow, grinding game: New York plays the league's slowest pace and should collect extra possessions off its own misses.
- Karl-Anthony Towns against Indiana's frontline: he averages 13.5 rebounds, and the Pacers rank 19th in defensive rebound rate.
- The line has moved from Knicks -6.5 to Knicks -8.5; the total slipped to 219.5, and New York's games have gone under 8 of 11.
Second chances decide it
Both teams arrive chasing their first NBA Cup group-stage win, and the Knicks do it as defending Cup champions. Indiana does it without Tyrese Haliburton. The widest gap in this matchup sits under the rim, and that is where the game most likely tilts.
New York grabs 32.2% of its own misses, 2nd of 30 teams. That is offensive rebound rate: the share of a team's missed shots it gets back. Indiana sits at the other end of that list, last at 20.6%. The Knicks also finish defensive possessions, securing 77.4% of opponents' misses, which ranks 2nd.
Those extra possessions matter for a Knicks team whose shooting has been poor, 23rd in effective field goal percentage. Karl-Anthony Towns drives it, averaging 13.5 rebounds to go with efficient scoring. Josh Hart returned Wednesday after missing three games, and his work on the glass from the guard spot adds to the edge. Carlisle stressed rebounding consistency this week. He sees the problem too.
Indiana's paint game hits a wall
The Pacers score inside. They shoot 57.0% on twos, 3rd in the league, and Pascal Siakam is the reason. He scored 28 in Wednesday's win over Washington.
The Knicks are built to take that away. They allow 37.8 paint points per game, 3rd fewest. The trade-off is that New York lets opponents shoot plenty of threes. That pushes Indiana toward its weakest skill: the Pacers make 33.3% from deep, 24th in the league.
Andrew Nembhard is the exception, hitting 42.9% from three while running the offense. If Indiana's other shooters don't join him, the Knicks can stay home in the paint and live with the misses.
A thin Pacers rotation
Haliburton (left hamstring) is out. Carlisle said Wednesday he would miss at least 10 more days. Aaron Nesmith is questionable with soreness behind his right knee after leaving Wednesday's game. Carlisle said he hopes it is minor, and Nesmith is likely to test it before tip. He averages 11.7 points and was central to Indiana's playoff series wins over New York in 2024 and 2025. If he sits, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Jalen Slawson figure to pick up minutes.
T.J. McConnell (right hamstring) is probable. Ben Sheppard and Johnny Furphy are out with knee injuries. Ivica Zubac, new to Indiana, is still finding his fit at center.
New York had no one on Friday's injury report. Towns carried a calf issue into Wednesday's game but isn't listed now. The open question is the fifth starter, Hart or Landry Shamet, and whether Mikal Bridges breaks a slump that has him at 5.9 points per game.
Slow pace, low totals
New York plays at 98.2 possessions per game, the slowest pace in the league. Its defense ranks 5th in efficiency, measured as points allowed per 100 possessions. That shape shows in the results: the under has hit in 8 of 11 Knicks games. Indiana's over/under record is 4-8.
The Knicks are 8.5-point favorites, and the line has moved from 6.5 to 8.5 toward New York. The total has slipped half a point to 219.5. The spread records point the other way. New York is 4-7 against the spread and lost 115-107 to Cleveland on Wednesday. Indiana is 7-5 and has covered four of its last five, though it is just 1-4 at home.
The Knicks won three of four meetings last season. Indiana needs a better night on the glass to change that pattern.
New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers line movement and odds
| Book | Knicks ML | Pacers ML | Knicks spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -325 | +260 | -7.5 (-115) | o218.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | -295 | +235 | -7.5 (-114) | o218.5 (-114) |
| DraftKings | -321 | +259 | -7.5 (-112) | o219.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | -320 | +260 | -7.5 (-110) | o218.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | -300 | +240 | -7.5 (-115) | o218.5 (-115) |
| FanDuel | -300 | +245 | -8.5 (-102) | o219.5 (-104) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -350 | +275 | -7.5 (-120) | o218.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | -345 | +270 | -8.5 (-105) | o218.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers
On the Kalshi moneyline: New York Knicks: 73% of bets, 87% of the money; Indiana Pacers: 27% of bets, 13% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: New York Knicks -8.5: 49% of bets, 51% of the money; Indiana Pacers +8.5: 51% of bets, 49% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 219.5: 53% of bets, 44% of the money; Under 219.5: 47% of bets, 56% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: New York Knicks (3 wallets, $57) vs Indiana Pacers (1 wallet, $32). Largest: Elated-Liberty $32 on Indiana Pacers, Rubbery-Policy $29 on New York Knicks, Boiling-Sprat-Dwell $23 on New York Knicks.
Key players
- Jalen Brunson (New York Knicks): Averages 26.0 points this season and scored 27 in Wednesday's loss to Cleveland.
- Karl-Anthony Towns (New York Knicks): Posts 20.9 points and 13.5 rebounds this season with a 62.1% effective field goal percentage.
- Landry Shamet (New York Knicks): Shooting 42.1% from three this season while competing with Hart for the fifth starting spot.
- Josh Hart (New York Knicks): Averages 6.9 rebounds this season and returned Wednesday after missing three games.
- Pascal Siakam (Indiana Pacers): Averages 22.7 points on 51.1% shooting this season and scored 28 against Washington.
- Andrew Nembhard (Indiana Pacers): Averages 17.1 points and 7.9 assists this season while hitting 42.9% from three.
- Aaron Nesmith (Indiana Pacers): Averages 11.7 points this season but is questionable with right knee soreness.
- Kelly Oubre Jr. (Indiana Pacers): Likely to see more minutes if Nesmith sits, though he is shooting 21.1% from three this season.
Numbers that matter
| Knicks offensive rebound rate | 32.2% | 2nd in the league, against a Pacers defense that ranks 19th in defensive rebound rate. |
|---|---|---|
| Pacers offensive rebound rate | 30th | Indiana gets fewer second chances than any team, while New York ranks 2nd in defensive rebounding. |
| Knicks paint points allowed | 37.8 | 3rd fewest in the league, aimed directly at a Pacers offense that shoots 57.0% on twos. |
| Knicks pace | 98.2 | The slowest pace in the league, part of why the under has hit in 8 of 11 New York games. |
| Spread | -6.5 | The Knicks' number hasn't moved since our feed first recorded it, even with Nesmith's status uncertain. |
New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers: quick answers
What was the final score of New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers?
New York Knicks 104, Indiana Pacers 106 (final). Indiana Pacers covered the closing spread (New York Knicks -7.5). The game went under the closing total of 218.5.
Who is favored in New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers?
New York Knicks is favored by 8.5 points (New York Knicks -8.5).
What is the over/under for New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers?
The total is 219.5 points.
When is New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers?
Friday, November 13, 2026 at 7:10 PM ET.
Has the line moved for New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers?
Yes: New York Knicks opened -6.5 and is now -7.5, and the total moved from 219.5 to 218.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: New York Knicks: 73% of bets, 87% of the money; Indiana Pacers: 27% of bets, 13% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: New York Knicks -8.5: 49% of bets, 51% of the money; Indiana Pacers +8.5: 51% of bets, 49% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 219.5: 53% of bets, 44% of the money; Under 219.5: 47% of bets, 56% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: New York Knicks (3 wallets, $57) vs Indiana Pacers (1 wallet, $32). Largest: Elated-Liberty $32 on Indiana Pacers, Rubbery-Policy $29 on New York Knicks, Boiling-Sprat-Dwell $23 on New York Knicks. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.