Milwaukee Bucks vs Orlando Magic prediction: Franz Wagner's short-handed Magic chase a first home win against reeling Bucks

Two losing streaks collide

One streak breaks tonight in Orlando. Milwaukee has lost eight straight and hasn't won since Oct. 26, falling to 1-11. The Magic, 4-3 on the road, have lost all four of their games at the Kia Center.

This is an NBA Cup Group A game, and the two teams arrive from opposite directions. Orlando opened Cup play by beating Toronto 121-114 on Oct. 30. Milwaukee's Cup opener went the other way, with the Raptors coming back from a 15-point deficit while missing three starters.

The underlying numbers say the Bucks' record is earned. Their net efficiency (points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions) of -14.3 ranks 29th. Their defense gives up 119.1 points per 100 possessions, also 29th. Orlando sits at -5.4, 22nd: mediocre, but a different tier.

Last season Orlando won two of three meetings, including a 130-91 rout in Milwaukee in March. That was a Bucks team built around Giannis Antetokounmpo. He is gone, and this roster is rebuilding without him.

Wagner and the missing pieces

Orlando plays without Paolo Banchero, who is out with a right high-ankle sprain and isn't expected back until around Nov. 22. Jonathan Isaac (knee), Noah Penda (hamstring) and Izaiyah Nelson (ankle) are also out. Jalen Suggs' status is unsettled: today's reports disagree on whether his right knee bruise makes him questionable or rules him out. Tristan da Silva (calf) is questionable, and Jamal Cain (shoulder) is day-to-day after missing Wednesday's win in Utah.

That leaves Franz Wagner as the engine. He averages 23.5 points and 7.9 assists this season. He scored 38 at Utah on Wednesday, 12 of them in the fourth quarter. His jumper is the caveat: he is shooting 25.0% from three.

Wendell Carter Jr. gives him a dependable finisher, hitting 60.9% from the field. Anthony Black, averaging 17.8 points, played both ends of the Sacramento-Utah back-to-back after early-week ankle soreness. Da Silva matters more than his bench role suggests, with 15.1 points a game on 40.0% from three.

Milwaukee loses the margins

The Bucks bleed possessions on the glass. They grab only 67.2% of available defensive rebounds, 29th. Orlando secures 75.8% on its own end, 4th, which shuts off the Bucks' second chances.

The turnover battle offers Milwaukee little relief. Orlando is careless with the ball, coughing it up on 16.7% of possessions, 26th. But the Bucks force turnovers at the lowest rate in the league, so they aren't built to punish that.

Inside, Orlando holds opponents to 44.0 paint points a game, 5th. Milwaukee ranks 26th in paint scoring. Myles Turner, listed day-to-day for rest and expected back, protects the rim at 2.4 blocks a game. He has also been a drag on offense, shooting 25.5% from three.

Herro's threes, Orlando's soft perimeter

Milwaukee's best route is volume from deep. The Bucks rank 3rd in 3-point attempt rate, taking 48.6% of their shots from beyond the arc. Orlando's opponents are making 37.9% of their threes, 27th.

Tyler Herro pulls the trigger. He averages 21.9 points on 38.8% from three this season, and he scored 27 with seven assists against the Lakers on Wednesday in his return from a knee issue. Jaime Jaquez Jr. adds 40.4% shooting from deep.

Slow starts sink that plan. Milwaukee scores 48.8 first-half points a game, last in the league, and trailed the Knicks 58-34 at halftime Tuesday. Ryan Rollins adds uncertainty: he left Wednesday's game after bumping heads with Collin Sexton, and reports disagree on whether he is listed for tonight.

What the line says

Orlando is a 9-point favorite, up slightly from -8.75 when the line first appeared in our feed. The total has also moved, from 222.5 to 223.5.

The Magic have covered three straight, two of them as road favorites in Sacramento and Utah. Milwaukee is 4-8 against the spread, and its totals have split 6-6. Both teams rank in the bottom third in pace, which helps explain why a total in the low 220s hasn't been easy to clear.