Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans prediction: Edey sits, and Zion's paint-hungry Pelicans see an opening against Memphis
Memphis brings the league's second-best 3-point shooting to New Orleans, but without either center it must survive the NBA's top paint-scoring team.
Memphis Grizzlies covered the closing spread (Memphis Grizzlies -3.5). The game went over the closing total of 235.5.
| Spread | Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 235.5 |
- Expect a fast, high-scoring game: Memphis shoots over the top while a short-handed Pelicans team leans on Zion Williamson at the rim and the line.
- Zion Williamson against a Grizzlies frontcourt missing both Zach Edey and Quinten Post.
- Memphis is favored by 3.5, down from 4.75 when our feed first saw the game; the total climbed to 235.5 from 233.75.
No centers, and Zion waiting
The Grizzlies will play this NBA Cup group game without a true center. Zach Edey is out for left ankle injury management and Quinten Post is out with a concussion. That leaves the middle to forwards and rookie Cameron Boozer, a 6-foot-8 forward who has been doing the dirty work on the boards.
It is a bad week to be thin inside. New Orleans scores 56.8 points in the paint per game, 1st in the league, and Memphis allows 48.4, which ranks 20th. Even at full strength the Grizzlies were not much of a shot-blocking team, ranking 23rd in block rate.
Zion Williamson is the reason the Pelicans live there. He is averaging 21.7 points on 62.2% shooting, and his bulldozing feeds the league's highest free throw rate: New Orleans attempts free throws at 36.8% of its field goal attempts, 1st of 30. Memphis has kept opponents off the line, ranking 9th in opponent free throw rate, but that discipline gets harder to keep when the bodies in front of Williamson are smaller.
Jerome and an open perimeter
Memphis answers from outside, and the Pelicans' defense invites it. The Grizzlies shoot 38.9% from three, 2nd in the league. New Orleans lets opponents take 44.9% of their shots from deep, 7th-most, and its opponents post a 57.1% effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark where threes count 1.5 times), 28th.
Ty Jerome drives it. He scored 40 points against New Orleans earlier this month in a 135-134 overtime loss, and he is averaging 26.2 points this season. The shooting around him has been sharp, from Cedric Coward on the wing to Cam Spencer off the bench.
The Pelicans can't trade threes. They take them at the lowest rate in the league, 30th of 30 in 3-point attempt rate, which puts the whole offense on the paint attack above.
A Pelicans rotation in pieces
New Orleans has lost four straight, and the injury report keeps growing. Trey Murphy III (knee tendinitis) is listed as doubtful, though some listings call him a game-time decision; missing would make it three straight absences. Yves Missi (knee) is also doubtful, with conflicting reports on whether he's a game-time call, even after he was cleared for on-court work Thursday. If Missi sits, Karlo Matkovic is expected to keep starting at center, with Saddiq Bey taking extra minutes. Bennedict Mathurin (thumb) and Bryce McGowens (elbow) are doubtful, and Trendon Watford (ankle) is out.
The defense is the deeper problem. Jamahl Mosley was hired partly for the defenses he built in Orlando, yet the Pelicans allow 117.5 points per 100 possessions, 28th, and opponents shoot 60.6% on twos, last in the league. Brooklyn scored 145 on them Wednesday, and Mosley pointed out that each of the three most recent losses came with the Pelicans giving up 130-plus.
Both teams lost their opening Cup group games and need a win to stay in knockout contention.
Where the market sits
Memphis is favored by 3.5 after our feed first saw it at 4.75, so money has drifted toward a Pelicans team with a stack of doubtful tags. The Grizzlies are 7-4 against the spread and 5-0 on the road, while going 2-4 at home.
The total rose to 235.5 from 233.75. New Orleans plays at the 3rd-fastest pace in the league and has gone over in 8 of 12 games, a run fed by a defense that can't get stops. Memphis has been closer to neutral, going 5-6 on overs.
One quieter edge belongs to New Orleans: the Pelicans rank 3rd in steal rate, while Memphis ranks 20th in turnover rate. Live-ball giveaways would feed a Pelicans transition game that ranks 3rd in fast-break points.
Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans line movement and odds
| Book | Grizzlies ML | Pelicans ML | Grizzlies spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -165 | +135 | -3.5 (-115) | o235.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | -162 | +133 | -3.5 (-110) | o234.5 (-114) |
| DraftKings | -162 | +136 | -3.5 (-112) | o235.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | -150 | +130 | -3.5 (+100) | o235.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | -165 | +135 | -3.5 (-115) | o235.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -168 | +142 | -3.5 (-115) | o235.5 (-108) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -170 | +140 | -3.5 (-115) | o235.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | -165 | +140 | -3.5 (-110) | o234.5 (-115) |
Where the money is on Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans
On the Kalshi moneyline: Memphis Grizzlies: 82% of bets, 80% of the money; New Orleans Pelicans: 19% of bets, 20% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Memphis Grizzlies -3.5: 70% of bets, 88% of the money; New Orleans Pelicans +3.5: 30% of bets, 12% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 235.5: 30% of bets, 74% of the money; Under 235.5: 70% of bets, 26% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Memphis Grizzlies (1 wallet, $5). Largest: Infatuated-Flugelhorn $5 on Memphis Grizzlies.
Key players
- Ty Jerome (Memphis Grizzlies): Averaging 26.2 points on 57.1% effective shooting this season, and he dropped 40 on New Orleans earlier this month.
- Cameron Boozer (Memphis Grizzlies): Averaging 16.1 points and 9.8 rebounds this season, though he is shooting just 37.3% from the field.
- Cedric Coward (Memphis Grizzlies): Making 45.1% of his threes this season while adding 8.7 rebounds per game.
- Cam Spencer (Memphis Grizzlies): Shooting 54.1% from three this season in 19.5 minutes a night.
- Zion Williamson (New Orleans Pelicans): Averaging 21.7 points on 62.2% shooting this season, plus 2.1 steals per game.
- Saddiq Bey (New Orleans Pelicans): Scoring 15.4 points per game this season off the bench and hitting 88.6% of his free throws.
- Jeremiah Fears (New Orleans Pelicans): Averaging 15.2 points and 4.9 assists this season but making only 29.8% of his threes.
- Trey Murphy III (New Orleans Pelicans): Averaging 15.6 points with 37.7% 3-point shooting this season, but knee tendinitis has him listed as doubtful.
Numbers that matter
| Pelicans paint points | 56.8 | 1st in the league, against a Memphis defense ranked 20th in paint points allowed and missing both centers. |
|---|---|---|
| Grizzlies 3-point % | 38.9% | 2nd in the league, facing a Pelicans defense that allows the 7th-highest opponent 3-point attempt rate. |
| Pelicans defensive efficiency | 117.5 | Points allowed per 100 possessions, 28th of 30, during a four-game skid. |
| Spread movement | -3.5 | Memphis's current line, down from -4.75 when our feed first recorded the game. |
| Pelicans over/under record | 8-4 | Overs in 8 of 12 games for a team that plays at the 3rd-fastest pace. |
Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans: quick answers
What was the final score of Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans?
Memphis Grizzlies 142, New Orleans Pelicans 111 (final). Memphis Grizzlies covered the closing spread (Memphis Grizzlies -3.5). The game went over the closing total of 235.5.
Who is favored in Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans?
Memphis Grizzlies is favored by 3.5 points (Memphis Grizzlies -3.5).
What is the over/under for Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans?
The total is 235.5 points.
When is Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans?
Friday, November 13, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans?
No: Memphis Grizzlies has stayed at -3.5, and the total moved from 233 to 235.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Memphis Grizzlies: 82% of bets, 80% of the money; New Orleans Pelicans: 19% of bets, 20% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Memphis Grizzlies -3.5: 70% of bets, 88% of the money; New Orleans Pelicans +3.5: 30% of bets, 12% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 235.5: 30% of bets, 74% of the money; Under 235.5: 70% of bets, 26% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Memphis Grizzlies (1 wallet, $5). Largest: Infatuated-Flugelhorn $5 on Memphis Grizzlies. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.