Atlanta Hawks vs Chicago Bulls prediction: Caleb Wilson's injury leaves Chicago's last-ranked defense facing Atlanta's paint attack
The Bulls lose their leading scorer in the middle of an eight-game skid, and the Hawks bring the kind of downhill offense that has been punishing Chicago all season.
Chicago Bulls covered the closing spread (Atlanta Hawks -6.5). The game went under the closing total of 246.5.
| Spread | Atlanta Hawks -7 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 245.5 |
- Expect a fast, high-scoring game in which Atlanta's ball pressure and paint attack test a Bulls team now without its top scorer.
- Atlanta's drives against Chicago's interior: the Hawks rank 3rd in paint scoring, and the Bulls allow the most paint points in the league.
- Atlanta is favored by 7.5 with a 245.5 total, both unchanged since our feed's first look; the Hawks are 4-8 against the spread.
Chicago loses its rookie engine
The Bulls were already the NBA's worst team by net efficiency. Now they play this NBA Cup group game without Caleb Wilson, their leading scorer at 18.9 points per game. Wilson had surgery on his right hand Thursday and is expected to miss four to six weeks.
The timing stings. Chicago is 1-9 and has lost eight straight, and Wednesday's loss to the Spurs came after the Bulls led by as many as 22. The defense is the deeper problem: Chicago allows 121.0 points per 100 possessions, 30th of 30.
The next scorer up is also uncertain. Norman Powell is questionable, and the report on what's bothering him has varied between a shoulder and his lower back. Coach Tiago Splitter said Wednesday that Powell was at "70%" and that he expected him back Friday. Dailyn Swain is also questionable with a back issue, and Tobe Awaka is out. With Wilson sidelined, Tre Jones and Isaac Okoro should absorb more minutes, and Okoro is shooting 15.0% from three.
Atlanta attacks the soft middle
The Hawks score inside and share it. They average 52.7 paint points per game, 3rd in the league, and lead the NBA in assist rate, the share of made baskets that come off a pass. Chicago allows 54.6 paint points per game, the most of any team.
Atlanta also turns defense into offense. The Hawks force turnovers on 17.4% of opponent possessions, 4th best, and Dyson Daniels averages 3.0 steals. Against a Bulls team that has already lost its best shot creator, live-ball turnovers could open this up early.
Where Chicago can answer
The Hawks have their own soft spot at the rim. Opponents make 58.7% of their twos against Atlanta, 29th in the league, and Chicago converts 56.2% of its twos, 6th best. Jalen Smith is the clearest beneficiary, with a 63.0% effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times).
The free throw line also tilts toward Chicago. The Bulls' free throw rate (free throw attempts per shot attempt) ranks 5th, while Atlanta ranks 30th. The catch is the perimeter: Chicago shoots 28.9% from three, last in the league, so its scoring has to come inside or at the line.
Two fast teams, a big total
No team plays faster than Chicago, which ranks 1st in pace, and Atlanta ranks 4th. That's why the total sits at 245.5. The Bulls also give up 66.0 first-half points per game, the most in the league, and the Hawks' over/under record this season is 7-5.
A favorite that rarely covers
Atlanta is laid 7.5 points, with no movement since our feed first saw the line. The Hawks win more than they cover: they are 4-8 against the spread and failed to cover as a 2.5-point favorite in Monday's loss to the Lakers. Chicago is 5-5 against the spread and covered as a 15.5-point underdog against San Antonio on Wednesday.
History nags at the favorite too. The Bulls won all three meetings last season, including a 152-150 shootout in Atlanta.
- Powell's status and minutes if he plays
- Daniels' steals against Chicago's thinned backcourt
- Whether Atlanta's interior defense holds up against Smith
- Kingston Flemings, questionable with a back issue; Keshon Gilbert and Asa Newell are out for Atlanta
Atlanta Hawks vs Chicago Bulls line movement and odds
| Book | Hawks ML | Bulls ML | Hawks spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -250 | +200 | -6.5 (-110) | o246.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | -250 | +200 | -6.5 (-112) | o246.5 (-115) |
| DraftKings | -257 | +211 | -6.5 (-112) | o246.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | -270 | +220 | -6.5 (-115) | o246.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | -245 | +200 | -6.5 (-110) | o246.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -240 | +198 | -6.5 (-110) | o246.5 (-105) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -260 | +220 | -6.5 (-115) | o246.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | -260 | +210 | -6.5 (-105) | o246.5 (-105) |
Where the money is on Atlanta Hawks vs Chicago Bulls
On the Kalshi moneyline: Atlanta Hawks: 77% of bets, 68% of the money; Chicago Bulls: 23% of bets, 32% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Atlanta Hawks -6.5: 82% of bets, 75% of the money; Chicago Bulls +6.5: 18% of bets, 26% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 246.5: 37% of bets, 76% of the money; Under 246.5: 63% of bets, 24% of the money.
Key players
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker (Atlanta Hawks): He leads Atlanta at 21.9 points per game this season while hitting 37.3% from three.
- Jalen Johnson (Atlanta Hawks): He averages 19.2 points, 8.6 rebounds and 7.3 assists this season.
- Dyson Daniels (Atlanta Hawks): His 3.0 steals per game this season drive Atlanta's 4th-ranked forced turnover rate.
- Aaron Wiggins (Atlanta Hawks): In his first season in Atlanta he is shooting 41.9% from three off the bench.
- Norman Powell (Chicago Bulls): He averages 19.2 points this season but is questionable for tonight.
- Josh Giddey (Chicago Bulls): He runs the offense with 8.3 assists per game this season.
- Jalen Smith (Chicago Bulls): His 63.0% effective field goal percentage this season makes him Chicago's most efficient scorer.
- Matas Buzelis (Chicago Bulls): He averages 13.5 points this season and will need to carry more scoring with Wilson out.
Numbers that matter
| Bulls defensive efficiency | 121.0 | Points allowed per 100 possessions, 30th of 30. |
|---|---|---|
| Hawks paint points per game | 52.7 | 3rd in the league, against a Chicago defense that allows the most paint points. |
| Hawks forced turnover rate | 17.4% | 4th in the NBA, and a threat to a Bulls team missing its top scorer. |
| Bulls 3-point percentage | 28.9% | Last in the league, which pushes Chicago toward the rim and the free throw line. |
| Hawks against the spread | 4-8 | Atlanta wins more often than it covers as it lays 7.5 tonight. |
Atlanta Hawks vs Chicago Bulls: quick answers
What was the final score of Atlanta Hawks vs Chicago Bulls?
Atlanta Hawks 117, Chicago Bulls 125 (final). Chicago Bulls covered the closing spread (Atlanta Hawks -6.5). The game went under the closing total of 246.5.
Who is favored in Atlanta Hawks vs Chicago Bulls?
Atlanta Hawks is favored by 7 points (Atlanta Hawks -7).
What is the over/under for Atlanta Hawks vs Chicago Bulls?
The total is 245.5 points.
When is Atlanta Hawks vs Chicago Bulls?
Friday, November 13, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Atlanta Hawks vs Chicago Bulls?
No: Atlanta Hawks has stayed at -6.5, and the total moved from 242.5 to 246.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Atlanta Hawks vs Chicago Bulls?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Atlanta Hawks: 77% of bets, 68% of the money; Chicago Bulls: 23% of bets, 32% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Atlanta Hawks -6.5: 82% of bets, 75% of the money; Chicago Bulls +6.5: 18% of bets, 26% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 246.5: 37% of bets, 76% of the money; Under 246.5: 63% of bets, 24% of the money.