Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat prediction: Without Mobley, Cleveland must handle Giannis Antetokounmpo in Miami

Allen alone in the middle

Two Eastern Conference teams expected to contend sit at .500 or worse, and the NBA Cup group stage gives this one extra weight. The Cavaliers are trying to advance out of group play for the first time, and they will have to do it without Evan Mobley, ruled out with a left great toe sprain.

That absence lands in the worst spot. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 27.7 points and 12.6 rebounds in his first season in Miami. He is probable with a right wrist sprain, but he played through it Tuesday in Utah and finished with 30 points and 11 rebounds.

The job falls mostly to Jarrett Allen, who pulled down 14 rebounds in Wednesday's win at New York. Cleveland's best defensive habit helps him: the Cavs allow the 3rd-lowest opponent free throw rate in the league. Miami lives at the line more than most, ranking 7th in free throw rate, and Antetokounmpo is shooting 61.6% there. If Allen and the Cavs' help defenders send him to the stripe, the trips there may cost Cleveland less than easy layups would.

Miami's perimeter problem

Cleveland's way to answer is the three. The Heat rank 30th in opponent effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times) at 57.9%, and opponents are hitting 39.4% from deep, 29th in the league.

The Cavs shoot plenty of threes: their 3-point attempt rate ranks 8th. Donovan Mitchell leads them at 22.8 points per game, and James Harden is hitting 38.6% from three even while shooting 39.0% overall. Mobley's 47.9% from deep leaves the rotation, so more of the spacing falls on Mitchell, Harden and the bench. Peyton Watson is at 23.8% from three, which makes those two guards the shooting threats Miami's defense has to chase.

Thompson and Larsson in doubt

Miami's own shooting is unsettled. Klay Thompson is questionable with left ankle soreness after landing awkwardly on a chase-down block on Josh Green late in Tuesday's win, and Pelle Larsson is questionable with an illness. Neither practiced Thursday.

Those two supply much of the Heat's outside threat: Thompson is shooting 40.8% on 103 attempts, Larsson 46.9%. Without them, Andrew Wiggins, Ryan Conwell and Tim Hardaway Jr. would take on bigger roles. Davion Mitchell and his 8.5 assists per game keep the offense organized either way.

Cleveland's depth is thin too. Nae'Qwan Tomlin is out for several weeks with a low back stress reaction. Sam Merrill's status is unsettled: the league's Nov. 10 report listed him out with a right elbow injury, and Friday listings disagree on whether he is out or day-to-day.

Turnovers and tempo

The Heat play fast, 2nd in pace, and they force turnovers on 16.5% of opponent possessions, 7th in the league. Cleveland is built to deny that: the Cavs rank 4th in ball security with a 13.1% turnover rate. If Harden and Mitchell protect the ball, Miami loses one of its best sources of easy offense.

The Cavs rarely force mistakes, though, ranking 28th in forced turnover rate, so Miami should get clean looks of its own. Early possessions are a soft spot on defense: the Heat allow 62.0 first-half points per game, 28th in the league.

A short line, a sour record

Miami is a 2.5-point favorite at home with a total of 235.5, and neither number has moved since our feed first recorded it. The Heat have been hard to back: 2-9 against the spread, without a cover in their last five even while winning three of them. They are also 1-3 at Kaseya Center as they open a five-game homestand.

Cleveland is 4-8 against the spread and 2-4 on the road, and has covered in two of its last five. Unders have hit in 7 of Miami's 11 games, even with the Heat's pace.

Last season's four meetings split 2-2 and ran high, including a 140-138 Heat win in Miami, though Antetokounmpo was not on the Heat roster then.